Publication: Effectiveness of Government Support for the Private Sector during the COVID-19 Crisis: Evidence from El Salvador and Georgia
Loading...
Date
2022-03
ISSN
Published
2022-03
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper estimates the effectiveness of government support to the private sector during the COVID-19 pandemic in El Salvador and Georgia using firm-level data collected before and during the pandemic. The two countries are selected because eligibility criteria for support involved pre-pandemic features of firms, as opposed to more prevalent criteria directly linked to firms’ experiences during the pandemic and that greatly exacerbate concerns about selection bias in estimation. Four outcome variables are studied relating to firms’ workforce, hours of operations, and expectations. Matching and panel estimation techniques are used on full and restricted samples, with the latter aimed at reducing selection bias. Government support appears to have helped firms avoid a reduction in operations in El Salvador, mainly through cash transfers, which also helped in terms of permanent workers, with the latter effect counteracted by wage subsidies. Smaller firms in Georgia appear to have benefited more from government support, mostly through fiscal relief, which was partially counteracted by wage subsidies that benefited larger firms more. The finding that smaller firms have benefited more helps raise confidence in the analysis as strong negative selection bias is expected in this context. Manufacturers of textiles and garments in El Salvador and hotels and restaurants in Georgia appear to have benefited from government support, but the patterns in other sectors are mixed and country-specific, highlighting potential complexities of attempting to target sectors.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Karalashvili, Nona; Tamkoc, M. Nazim. 2022. Effectiveness of Government Support for the Private Sector during the COVID-19 Crisis: Evidence from El Salvador and Georgia. Policy Research Working Paper;9975. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37289 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Future of Poverty(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-15)Climate change is increasingly acknowledged as a critical issue with far-reaching socioeconomic implications that extend well beyond environmental concerns. Among the most pressing challenges is its impact on global poverty. This paper projects the potential impacts of unmitigated climate change on global poverty rates between 2023 and 2050. Building on a study that provided a detailed analysis of how temperature changes affect economic productivity, this paper integrates those findings with binned data from 217 countries, sourced from the World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Platform. By simulating poverty rates and the number of poor under two climate change scenarios, the paper uncovers some alarming trends. One of the primary findings is that the number of people living in extreme poverty worldwide could be nearly doubled due to climate change. In all scenarios, Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to bear the brunt, contributing the largest number of poor people, with estimates ranging between 40.5 million and 73.5 million by 2050. Another significant finding is the disproportionate impact of inequality on poverty. Even small increases in inequality can lead to substantial rises in poverty levels. For instance, if every country’s Gini coefficient increases by just 1 percent between 2022 and 2050, an additional 8.8 million people could be pushed below the international poverty line by 2050. In a more extreme scenario, where every country’s Gini coefficient increases by 10 percent between 2022 and 2050, the number of people falling into poverty could rise by an additional 148.8 million relative to the baseline scenario. These findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive climate policies that not only mitigate environmental impacts but also address socioeconomic vulnerabilities.Publication Exports, Labor Markets, and the Environment(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-14)What is the environmental impact of exports? Focusing on 2000–20, this paper combines customs, administrative, and census microdata to estimate employment elasticities with respect to exports. The findings show that municipalities that faced increased exports experienced faster growth in formal employment. The elasticities were 0.25 on impact, peaked at 0.4, and remained positive and significant even 10 years after the shock, pointing to a long and protracted labor market adjustment. In the long run, informal employment responds negatively to export shocks. Using a granular taxonomy for economic activities based on their environmental impact, the paper documents that environmentally risky activities have a larger share of employment than environmentally sustainable ones, and that the relationship between these activities and exports is nuanced. Over the short run, environmentally risky employment responds more strongly to exports relative to environmentally sustainable employment. However, over the long run, this pattern reverses, as the impact of exports on environmentally sustainable employment is more persistent.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication The Asymmetric Bank Distress Amplifier of Recessions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-11)One defining feature of financial crises, evident in U.S. and international data, is asymmetric bank distress—concentrated losses on a subset of banks. This paper proposes a model in which shocks to borrowers’ productivity dispersion lead to asymmetric bank losses. The framework exhibits a “bank distress amplifier,” exacerbating economic downturns by causing costly bank failures and raising uncertainty about the solvency of banks, thereby pushing banks to deleverage. Quantitative analysis shows that the bank distress amplifier doubles investment decline and increases the spread by 2.5 times during the Great Recession compared to a standard financial accelerator model. The mechanism helps explain how a seemingly small shock can sometimes trigger a large crisis.Publication Impact of Heat Waves on Learning Outcomes and the Role of Conditional Cash Transfers(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-14)This paper evaluates the impact of higher temperatures on learning outcomes in Peru. The results suggest that 1 degree above 20°C is equivalent to 7 and 6 percent of a standard deviation of what a student learns in a year for math and reading tests, respectively. These results hold true when the main specification is changed, splitting the sample, collapsing the data at school level, and using other climate specifications. The paper aims to improve understanding of how to deal with the impacts of climate change on learning outcomes in developing countries. The evidence suggests that conditional cash transfer programs can mitigate the negative effects of higher temperatures on students’ learning outcomes in math and reading.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Female-Owned Firms during the COVID-19 Crisis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07-29)This brief use firm-level data collected between May 2020 and May 2021 in 41 countries, to provide descriptive evidence on the differential effect of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis on female- and male-owned firms. Data suggest that while female-owned and male-owned businesses closed permanently at the same rates, female-owned firms were more likely to have temporarily closed during the crisis and to have closed for a longer duration. When able to stay in business, female-owned firms were more likely to experience a decrease in demand for their products or services and supply of intermediate inputs than male-owned firms. They also reduced the size of their workforce more than their male counterparts and were more likely to reduce hours worked. Finally, female-owned firms suffered deeper financial distress than male-owned firms. Nevertheless, female and male-owned firms show similar optimism of returning to normal levels of sales or workforce in the near future.Publication The Evolving Effect of COVID-19 on the Private Sector(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-24)This brief provides a descriptive analysis of the evolving effect of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic on the private sector of 40 countries. It focuses on the essential aspects of business operations: namely, firms' survival, production of goods and services, and jobs. Firms have suffered massive demand and supply shocks, affecting nearly all sectors. These shocks and the consequent drop in revenues have dried up firms' cash flows, depleting their working capital and putting the private sector under considerable financial distress. This brief also examines the effect of the pandemic on firms' liquidity, providing general assessments of the variation of these effects by country income level and firm characteristics. Firms in lower-income countries seem to have been hit harder across several measures, such as declines in sales and the incidence of overdue financial obligations. Within countries, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with 5 to 99 employees seem to have fared more poorly than large firms. While some signs of a recovery in terms of sales and capacity utilization are emerging, the recovery is fragile, as it bypasses important aspects such as liquidity and job creation. For a full post-pandemic recovery, it is important that sound businesses that are facing a temporary liquidity problem survive, and the workforce rebounds.Publication How Resilient Was Trade to COVID-19 ?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-03)This paper examines which product supply-side characteristics affect the resilience of traded products to the COVID-19 pandemic. Relying on monthly product-level exports by all countries to the United States, Japan, and 27 European Union countries from January 2018 to December 2020, the paper estimates a difference-in-differences specification for the impact of COVID-19 incidence (deaths per capita) mediated by product characteristics, accounting for when exports reach their destination by relying on product transportation lags. Higher reliance on foreign inputs, China as an input supplier, and unskilled labor and a lower degree of complexity negatively affected exports as a result of COVID-19.Publication Three Principles to Support Teacher Effectiveness During COVID-19(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-05)Effective teachers are irreplaceable in helping students succeed. They facilitate two-way teaching and learning processes, helping students learn content through real time responses to questions, making learning fun, shaping students' attitudes, exemplifying empathy, modeling teamwork and respect, and building student resilience in several ways. Successful teachers work with school management teams and parents to ensure consistent support for students as they transition through school. The sudden closure of schools during COVID-19 has left many teachers across several countries uncertain about their role, unable to use technology effectively to communicate and teach, and unprepared for classroom challenges when schools reopen. The pandemic has brought the need to bridge digital divides into sharp focus, with countries and schools adept at using such technologies facing fewer challenges in meeting learning goals. There can be little doubt that high-quality education is a social experience, requiring routine human interface. Successful teachers are irreplaceable in this task—and will remain so in the foreseeable future—but they need to be supported in multiple ways to be effective in unpredictable circumstances. Given the central role teachers play in student learning, this note outlines three key principles to help governments and their development partners in supporting teacher effectiveness during and in the aftermath of COVID-19. It discusses these principles in relation to the three phases of the World Bank’s COVID-19 education policy response: coping, managing continuity, and improvement and acceleration.1 The three principles are basic and apply regardless of country context.Publication Managing the Employment Impacts of the COVID-19 Crisis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-07)This note discusses policy options for managing the employment impacts of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) crisis aimed at relief and restructuring. The note pays attention to the labor market and institutional context of most low and middle-income countries where informality is large and where existing institutions often lack mechanisms to effectively reach businesses and workers in the informal economy. The note covers complementary policies aimed, in the relief phase, at: 1) Helping businesses survive and retain workers; 2) providing protection for those who do lose their jobs and see their livelihoods significantly affected; and 3) facilitating alternative employment and employability support for those who are out of work (collectively known as active labor market programs, ALMP). The note further differentiates between these relief responses and the restructuring response when countries start to reopen for businesses and policies need to aim to support firms' and workers' transition to a "new normal", hopefully a "better normal" that supports a resilient recovery.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2024: Better Education for Stronger Growth(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-17)Economic growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is likely to moderate from 3.5 percent in 2023 to 3.3 percent this year. This is significantly weaker than the 4.1 percent average growth in 2000-19. Growth this year is driven by expansionary fiscal policies and strong private consumption. External demand is less favorable because of weak economic expansion in major trading partners, like the European Union. Growth is likely to slow further in 2025, mostly because of the easing of expansion in the Russian Federation and Turkiye. This Europe and Central Asia Economic Update calls for a major overhaul of education systems across the region, particularly higher education, to unleash the talent needed to reinvigorate growth and boost convergence with high-income countries. Universities in the region suffer from poor management, outdated curricula, and inadequate funding and infrastructure. A mismatch between graduates' skills and the skills employers are seeking leads to wasted potential and contributes to the region's brain drain. Reversing the decline in the quality of education will require prioritizing improvements in teacher training, updated curricula, and investment in educational infrastructure. In higher education, reforms are needed to consolidate university systems, integrate them with research centers, and provide reskilling opportunities for adult workers.Publication World Development Report 2011(World Bank, 2011)The 2011 World development report looks across disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world to offer some ideas and practical recommendations on how to move beyond conflict and fragility and secure development. The key messages are important for all countries-low, middle, and high income-as well as for regional and global institutions: first, institutional legitimacy is the key to stability. When state institutions do not adequately protect citizens, guard against corruption, or provide access to justice; when markets do not provide job opportunities; or when communities have lost social cohesion-the likelihood of violent conflict increases. Second, investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs is essential to reducing violence. But there are major structural gaps in our collective capabilities to support these areas. Third, confronting this challenge effectively means that institutions need to change. International agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so they can respond with agility and speed, a longer-term perspective, and greater staying power. Fourth, need to adopt a layered approach. Some problems can be addressed at the country level, but others need to be addressed at a regional level, such as developing markets that integrate insecure areas and pooling resources for building capacity Fifth, in adopting these approaches, need to be aware that the global landscape is changing. Regional institutions and middle income countries are playing a larger role. This means should pay more attention to south-south and south-north exchanges, and to the recent transition experiences of middle income countries.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.