Publication: Evidence of Development Impact from Institutional Change : A Review of the Evidence on Open Budgeting
Loading...
Date
2014-07
ISSN
Published
2014-07
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Despite the growing body of literature examining the effectiveness of transparency and accountability initiatives, there remains limited substantiation for whether and how open budgeting contributes to reductions in poverty and improvements in the lives of the poor. This paper reviews available evidence and conclude that institutional changes can contribute to higher-level outcomes in certain contexts. The approach first draws from existing studies of transparency and accountability initiatives and then follows their references to broaden the evidence base. The findings highlight the importance of measuring budget transparency, accountability, and participation and tracing their outcomes along an incremental, nonlinear results chain. Logical links or ongoing loops in this sequence include the interplay or interdependency among these three dimensions; the subsequent achievement of key, often mutually reinforcing, intermediate development outcomes; and ultimately, improved program or service delivery as the key lever for influencing development impact. Rather than establishing standard indicators, the process begins to identify which aspects of the institutional change are valid for measurement and what contextual factors to consider. Overall, this review serves as a starting point and underscores the need for further investigation to establish effective measurement practices of institutional change and build an evidence base for understanding the relative robustness of institutional change paths and the context in which they are likely to matter.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Ling, Cristina; Roberts, Dawn. 2014. Evidence of Development Impact from Institutional Change : A Review of the Evidence on Open Budgeting. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6968. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19357 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Intergenerational Income Mobility around the World(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-09)This paper introduces a new global database with estimates of intergenerational income mobility for 87 countries, covering 84 percent of the world’s population. This marks a notable expansion of the cross-country evidence base on income mobility, particularly among low- and middle-income countries. The estimates indicate that the negative association between income mobility and inequality (known as the Great Gatsby Curve) continues to hold across this wider range of countries. The database also reveals a positive association between income mobility and national income per capita, suggesting that countries achieve higher levels of intergenerational mobility as they grow richer.Publication The Impact of Trade Promotion Organizations on Exports(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-13)This paper examines the impact of trade promotion organizations on exports during the COVID-19 pandemic using a World Bank survey. The results suggest that increased trade promotion organization budgets significantly boosted exports during downturns but had no effect during the recovery phase. Interestingly, e-commerce programs adopted by trade promotion organizations negatively affected exports during downturns as they diverted resources away from productive support, especially for sectors not intensive in online trade. These findings suggest that countercyclical trade promotion organizations budgets may enhance trade resilience during similar global shocks.Publication The Future of Poverty(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-15)Climate change is increasingly acknowledged as a critical issue with far-reaching socioeconomic implications that extend well beyond environmental concerns. Among the most pressing challenges is its impact on global poverty. This paper projects the potential impacts of unmitigated climate change on global poverty rates between 2023 and 2050. Building on a study that provided a detailed analysis of how temperature changes affect economic productivity, this paper integrates those findings with binned data from 217 countries, sourced from the World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Platform. By simulating poverty rates and the number of poor under two climate change scenarios, the paper uncovers some alarming trends. One of the primary findings is that the number of people living in extreme poverty worldwide could be nearly doubled due to climate change. In all scenarios, Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to bear the brunt, contributing the largest number of poor people, with estimates ranging between 40.5 million and 73.5 million by 2050. Another significant finding is the disproportionate impact of inequality on poverty. Even small increases in inequality can lead to substantial rises in poverty levels. For instance, if every country’s Gini coefficient increases by just 1 percent between 2022 and 2050, an additional 8.8 million people could be pushed below the international poverty line by 2050. In a more extreme scenario, where every country’s Gini coefficient increases by 10 percent between 2022 and 2050, the number of people falling into poverty could rise by an additional 148.8 million relative to the baseline scenario. These findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive climate policies that not only mitigate environmental impacts but also address socioeconomic vulnerabilities.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Climate Vulnerability and Job Accessibility(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-11)Many developing cities are facing rapid population growth and extreme climate events. This paper examines the link between job accessibility and climate vulnerability, using data from Antananarivo, Madagascar, which frequently experiences flooding. As in other countries, the analysis finds that men’s commutes are longer than women’s, who tend to walk to work or use public transport. Even after controlling for observables and the potential endogeneity bias associated with commute time, the findings show that climate vulnerability negatively impacts wages, as people avoid commuting long to work due to anticipated potential climate risks. Building climate resilience into urban transport is therefore essential. As predicted by theory, the evidence also shows that the value of commuting is positive, and walking is disadvantageous. Motorized commuting yields higher returns, which could lead to overuse of private cars and taxis, posing decarbonization challenges.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Procurement Monitoring and Social Accountability(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009)The devolution of procurement responsibilities to local levels of government is increasingly occurring across South Asia. This trend is significant because increasingly localized decision-making better enables communities to hold government authorities accountable for the effectiveness of public spending, which can lead to various improved development outcomes, such as improvements in quality of service delivery; greater empowerment and understanding by end-users services supplied through public procurement processes; and improved oversight and accountability of service delivery agencies. The objective of this report is to set out an overview of the strategic approach developed by World Bank Institute (WBI) as a component of the Norwegian governance trust fund (NTF) program `procurement and service delivery: establishing effective collaboration between government and beneficiaries on monitoring procurement outcomes`. WBI received funds under the NTF to facilitate the development of context and audience-specific knowledge products by recognized practitioners and civil society organizations in South Asia as part of a broader effort to create a practical curriculum on social accountability in procurement.Publication The Political Economy of Social Accountability in Nepal(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011)The World Bank has introduced a new Program for Accountability in Nepal (PRAN) to enhance the capacities of civil society and government actors to utilize social accountability approaches and tools. This political economy study seeks to inform the PRAN by identifying the strengths and opportunities as well as risks and obstacles for social accountability initiatives in Nepal. It includes recommendations for managing and addressing these issues. The study is based on primary and secondary research conducted from September 2010 to February 2011. The research methodology utilized for this study was three-fold. First, a literature review was undertaken including in-country laws, policies and regulations, as well as a range of studies and articles on issues of relevance to social accountability in Nepal. A bibliography of these materials is attached as annex one. Second, semi-structured interviews were conducted with key civil society leaders, non-governmental organization (NGO) staff, journalists, academics, government officials, and citizens. A list of people interviewed and guiding questions are attached as annex two. Third, the research team made field visits to the eastern and western regions of the country to observe social accountability initiatives and interview local stakeholders. In total 75 people were interviewed, including 12 civil society leaders. Focus group discussions with citizens were also conducted in Ilam, Dhankuta, Itahari, and Palpa. The first section of the paper provides a brief historical overview of political development in Nepal, and highlights how these historical legacies influence current day citizen-state relations and accountability relationships. Section two analyzes the legislative and institutional framework for social accountability in Nepal. The third section of the paper analyzes a range of contextual factors influencing social accountability in Nepal. Section four identifies citizen information, citizen voice, and collective action as three key elements of social accountability in Nepal, and discusses current strengths and weaknesses with regard to each of them. Section five of the paper looks at each one of the PRAN's three focal areas - public financial management, municipal governance, and community-based monitoring and evaluation of public services. Finally, section six outlines conclusions and recommendations for promoting social accountability in Nepal.Publication Enabling East Asian Communities to Drive Local Development(Washington, DC, 2007-12-01)Local development activities have profound impact on poor people's welfare. Communities and local governments interact closest to where people live and where essential public services are delivered, such as local transport, water supply, health and education. Vibrant local development requires productive, balanced interaction between empowered communities and capable and accountable local governments. For this interface to function best, well-organized, well-informed communities demand development results, holding local authorities to account and, through participation in decisions and oversight of public service delivery, ensure that those authorities remain effective and open to citizen input. In tandem, local governments supply the capacity to deliver services, reliable resources and a desire to meet local citizens' needs. As a vision for local development, the supply of and demand for effective and responsive government are well-matched. In section one, this report lays out the scope of CDD operations in East Asia and presents three frameworks for organizing them: according to local government context, sectoral scope, and primary development objectives. Organizing six results hypotheses according to a generic CDD results template; section two presents available evidence from East Asia's CDD experience. And section three summarizes lessons learned from this flagship effort.Publication Improving the Quality of Public Expenditure in the Dominican Republic(Washington, DC, 2012)This book addresses the achievements, challenges, and opportunities to improve the quality of public spending. Steps to make such changes have come through monitoring and evaluation approaches that can be replicated or expanded; sectoral efforts to improve the performance of priority programs; Congress's use of information on the results of public spending; the implementation of performance budgeting at subnational levels; and the harmonization of accounting between the three levels of the federal government. All these aspects are key elements of comprehensive reform. Currently, as the book states, accountability focuses on achieving results rather than on centering attention on mere compliance with rules and procedures. In this context, based on a new legal framework, the government of Mexico has decisively promoted results-based management and budgeting. The Performance Evaluation System (SED) was finally established in 2008 with the institution of the principles, concepts, methodologies, guidelines, procedures, and systems that support its operation. Its adoption as a common practice in the Federal Public Administration (APF) process will require a gradual, progressive, systematic learning and continuous improvement that should allow performance evaluation to take root in the APF. This calls for consolidating the Results-Based Budgeting (RBB)-SED in all agencies, expanding its use and improving the quality of the information that feeds it. However, not just the APF benefit will from the implementation of the RBB-SED. As the publication suggests, the approach to an expenditure budget based on performance information offers Congress great opportunities to enhance its regulatory and supervisory functions. The improvement in the quality of Matrices de Indicadores para Resultados (MIRs), program evaluations, and their integration into the budgetary programming cycle also contributes to this purpose.Publication Rapid Feedback : The Role of Community Scorecards in Improving Service Delivery(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014)Social accountability tools are increasingly recognized as a means of improving service delivery and governance in World Bank-supported projects. Social accountability is an approach that relies on civic engagement in that citizens participate directly or indirectly in demanding accountability from service providers and public officials. Community scorecards (CSCs), the focus of this note, are citizen-driven accountability measures that enhance citizens' civic involvement and voices and complement conventional supply-side mechanisms of accountability, such as political checks and balances, accounting and auditing systems, administrative rules, and legal procedures. As a community-based social accountability tool, the CSC can be used to gather feedback from service users and improve communication between communities and service providers. By using focus groups and facilitated interface meetings, the CSC process provides service users with the opportunity to give systematic and constructive feedback to service providers about their performance. It also helps service providers learn directly from service users about what aspects of their services and programs are working well and what aspects are not. This note aims to outline a methodology in order to help task team's work with clients to implement and scale-up CSC initiatives. To this end, examples from Bank-supported projects in which the use of CSCs has resulted in improved service delivery are showcased.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication World Bank Annual Report 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-25)This annual report, which covers the period from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, has been prepared by the Executive Directors of both the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)—collectively known as the World Bank—in accordance with the respective bylaws of the two institutions. Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank Group and Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors, has submitted this report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.Publication Vietnam(World Bank, Hanoi, 2020-05-01)Following from Vietnam’s ratification of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in late 2018 and its effectiveness from January 2019, and the European Parliament’s recent approval of the European Union-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and its subsequent planned ratification by the National Assembly in May 2020, Vietnam has further demonstrated its determination to be a modern, competitive, open economy. As the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) crisis has clearly shown, diversified markets and supply chains will be key in the future global context to managing the risk of disruptions in trade and in supply chains due to changing trade relationships, climate change, natural disasters, and disease outbreaks. In those regards, Vietnam is in a stronger position than most countries in the region. The benefits of globalization are increasingly being debated and questioned. However, in the case of Vietnam, the benefits have been clear in terms of high and consistent economic growth and a large reduction in poverty levels. As Vietnam moves to ratify and implement a new generation of free trade agreements (FTAs), such as the CPTPP and EVFTA, it is important to clearly demonstrate, in a transparent manner, the economic gains and distributional impacts (such as sectoral and poverty) from joining these FTAs. In the meantime, it is crucial to highlight the legal gaps that must be addressed to ensure that national laws and regulations are in compliance with Vietnam’s obligations under these FTAs. Readiness to implement this new generation of FTAs at both the national and subnational level is important to ensure that the country maximizes the full economic benefits in terms of trade and investment. This report explores the issues of globalization and the integration of Vietnam into the global economy, particularly through implementation of the EVFTA.Publication World Development Report 1987(New York: Oxford University Press, 1987)This report, consisting of two parts, is the tenth in the annual series assessing development issues. Part I reviews recent trends in the world economy and their implications for the future prospects of developing countries. It stresses that better economic performance is possible in both industrial and developing countries, provided the commitment to economic policy reforms is maintained and reinforced. In regard to the external debt issues, the report argues for strengthened cooperation among industrial countries in the sphere of macroeconomic policy to promote smooth adjustment to the imbalances caused by external payments (in developing countries). Part II reviews and evaluates the varied experience with government policies in support of industrialization. Emphasis is placed on policies which affect both the efficiency and sustainability of industrial transformation, especially in the sphere of foreign trade. The report finds that developing countries which followed policies that promoted the integration of their industrial sector into the international economy through trade have fared better than those which insulated themselves from international competition.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.