Publication: Fertility Transition in Turkey: Who Is Most at Risk of Deciding Against Child Arrival?
Loading...
Published
2015-06
ISSN
Date
2015-07-16
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
In Turkey, female employment and education are still relatively low, while fertility levels are high compared with other European countries. However, Turkey stands just at the edge of an important social transition. Increasing female education and employment come along with important decreases in fertility. By mobilizing census and survey data, this paper finds that fertility decreases are mainly caused by fewer transitions to a third birth. Graduate women participating in the formal labor market are most at risk of deciding against child arrival in comparison with inactive or unemployed women. The third rank is particularly concerned, as women’s income contribution seems to be crucial for many families that already have two children, and the arrival of a third child risks reducing or stopping women’s working activities in the absence of institutional childcare support. Policies enabling women to combine work and family life, which have been proven effective in other European countries, emerge as useful to avoid a further fertility decline below replacement level in Turkey.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Greulich, Angela; Dasre, Aurélien; Inan, Ceren. 2015. Fertility Transition in Turkey: Who Is Most at Risk of Deciding Against Child Arrival?. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7310. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22181 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05)Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.Publication The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10)This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.Publication The Marshall Plan: Then and Now(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-14)This paper is a product of the Development Policy Team, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication It’s Not (Just) the Tariffs: Rethinking Non-Tariff Measures in a Fragmented Global Economy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-22)As tariffs have declined, non-tariff measures (NTMs) have become central to trade policy, especially in high-income countries and regulated sectors like food and green technologies. Although NTMs may serve legitimate goals, they could also sort countries and firms into or out of markets based on compliance capacity and differences in product mix. Documenting recent advances in the estimation of ad valorem equivalents (AVEs), this paper uncovers new patterns of use and exposure of NTMs. High-income countries rely more heavily on NTMs relative to tariffs, while low- and middle-income countries face steeper AVEs on their exports. Firm-level evidence shows that NTMs disproportionately affect smaller firms, leading to market exit and concentration. Poorly designed NTMs can harm productivity and welfare, while coordinated, capacity-aware use can deliver inclusive outcomes. Policy design, transparency, and diagnostics must evolve to reflect the growing role—and risks—of NTMs in a fragmented global trade landscape.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Fertility Decline in the Islamic Republic of Iran 1980-2006(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-05)Despite its volatile history, the Islamic Republic of Iran has performed well on social indicators, especially in providing basic services such as health care and education. Iran's fertility decline may have proceeded in two stages, the first beginning in the late 1960s. The Iranian government introduced a family planning program during the 1960s with explicit health and demographic objectives. Between 1967 and 1977, fertility declined-mainly in urban areas-to an average of 4 children per woman. Although the family planning program continued after the 1979 Islamic revolution, it was suspended after war broke out with Iraq in 1980. During the war, the government pursued a pronatalist population policy, including incentives for childbearing. The fertility decline coincided with improvements in primary and secondary education, possibly affecting the rapid decline in adolescent fertility during 1997-2006, especially when compared to other Middle East and North Africa region countries. Today regional disparities in fertility exist with higher fertility in less developed districts. Yet Iran's example shows how good public policy interventions in health (including family planning) and education can reduce fertility and contribute to human development.Publication Determinants of Fertility, Women's Health and Employment Behavior in Sri Lanka(Washington, DC, 2012-10)The paper analyzes the labor market during 1992-2009, the wartime years, and uses the findings to help understand implications for the labor market as the economy grows and recovers from the conflict. The analysis is primarily based on annual Labor Force Survey (LFS) data collected by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) between 1992 and 2009. The paper excludes the North and East from the analysis because the labor market in these provinces was functioning in atypical times, and was affected severely by the security situation. The 2006 moving out of poverty study conducted in conflict areas noted large outmigration of the better off households and the reliance on those left behind on remittances (Center for Poverty Analysis 2006). The study also found that private sector investment had largely dwindled in these provinces, and the main source of jobs was public employment. Looking ahead, over the next 15 years, demand for workers in industry is likely to increase as rebuilding and recovery in the North and East proceeds. In addition, demand for highly skilled workers to meet the needs of the expanding services sector, particularly higher-end services, will also increase. Analyzing the empirical trends using the LFS, it is clear that increasing female labor force participation, addressing high youth unemployment and its causes, and addressing the negative aspects of certain labor market regulations will be key to meeting the needs of a growing economy. The paper is organized as follows. The two sections that follow present an overview of the supply and demand side of the labor market. The next section discusses the ways in which the demographic transition could shape the labor market, particularly in terms of unemployment and earnings. This discussion is followed by three sections examining labor force participation and unemployment, job type, and earnings respectively. The last section concludes with some policy recommendations.Publication Fertility Regulation Behaviors and Their Costs : Contraception and Unintended Pregnancies in Africa and Eastern Europe & Central Asia(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-12)The report consists of three parts: global trends in fertility, contraceptive use and unintended pregnancies; studies of two regions (Africa and Eastern Europe/Central Asia) and two countries (Nigeria and Kazakhstan) on the costs of fertility regulation behaviors and provider attitudes towards contraceptive use. Fertility levels have declined steadily over the last three decades but the pace of decline varies among regions. Countries that have achieved a high level of contraceptive use have reached a lower fertility level. A gap continues to exist between actual and desired family size, resulting in unintended pregnancies. More than one-third of the pregnancies that occur are unintended and one in five pregnancies ends in induced abortion. Almost half of all induced abortions are unsafe, and the proportion of all abortions that are unsafe have increased during the last decade. Sixty-six percent of unintended pregnancies occur among women who are not using any method of contraception. Investing in quality family planning programs is a cost-effective way to address unmet need for contraception and reduce the risks of unsafe abortion, thereby improving maternal health. If contraception were provided to the 137 million women who lack access, maternal mortality will decline by 25-35 percent.Publication Family Policies in Russia(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-09-12)Policymakers in many countries, including the Russian Federation, are attempting to encourage fertility as part of their response to the challenge of population aging. Whether pro-natalist policies will be effective depends crucially on how well they address the underlying causes of low fertility and barriers to larger family size. While in some countries in Western Europe postponing childbearing and increased childlessness seem to be driving the fertility decline, these factors do not appear to be as influential in Russia. Instead, the problem seems to be the relatively low frequency of second and higher-order births, which persists despite major changes to pro-natalist policies introduced in 2007 and the prevalence of the two-child ideal of family size. This study analyzes current and prospective fertility trends in contemporary Russia, with special attention to second-child birth dynamics and its determinants. Stable employment and accessibility of formal childcare options are found to be factors that are correlated with mothers preferences for additional children and the probability that they will have a second child. In light of this observation and international experience, a menu of policies to improve work-family balance is suggested.Publication The Effects of Conflict on Fertility in Rwanda(2011-06-01)The aim of this paper is to study the short and long-term fertility effects of mass violent conflict on different population sub-groups. The authors pool three nationally representative demographic and health surveys from before and after the genocide in Rwanda, identifying conflict exposure of the survivors in multiple ways. The analysis finds a robust effect of genocide on fertility, with a strong replacement effect for lost children. Having lost siblings reduces fertility only in the short term. Most interesting is the continued importance of the institution of marriage in determining fertility and in reducing fertility for the large group of widows in Rwanda.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Morocco Economic Update, Winter 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03)Despite the drought causing a modest deceleration of overall GDP growth to 3.2 percent, the Moroccan economy has exhibited some encouraging trends in 2024. Non-agricultural growth has accelerated to an estimated 3.8 percent, driven by a revitalized industrial sector and a rebound in gross capital formation. Inflation has dropped below 1 percent, allowing Bank al-Maghrib to begin easing its monetary policy. While rural labor markets remain depressed, the economy has added close to 162,000 jobs in urban areas. Morocco’s external position remains strong overall, with a moderate current account deficit largely financed by growing foreign direct investment inflows, underpinned by solid investor confidence indicators. Despite significant spending pressures, the debt-to-GDP ratio is slowly declining.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.