Publication: Citizen Participation and Political Trust in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Machine Learning Approach
Loading...
Date
2023-03
ISSN
Published
2023-03
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper advances the understanding of the linkages between trust in government and citizen participation in Latin America and the Caribbean, using machine learning techniques and Latinobarómetro 2020 data. Proponents of the concept of stealth democracy argue that an inverse relationship exists between political trust and citizen participation, while deliberative democracy theorists claim the opposite. The paper estimates that trust in national governments or other governmental institutions plays neither a dominant nor consistent role in driving political participation. Instead, interest in politics, personal circumstances such as experience of crime and discrimination, and socioeconomic aspects appear to drive citizen participation much more strongly in the Latin America and the Caribbean region. This is true across models imposing simple linear trends (logit and lasso) and others allowing for nonlinear and complex relations (decision trees). The results vary across the type of participation—signing a petition, participation in demonstrations, or involvement in a community issue—which the paper attributes to increasing net costs associated with participation.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Pecorari, Natalia; Cuesta, Jose. 2023. Citizen Participation and Political Trust in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Machine Learning Approach. Policy Research Working Papers; 10335. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/39504 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Gender Bias, Citizen Participation, and AI(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-28)This paper investigates the role of gender bias in artificial intelligence–driven analyses of citizen participation, using data from the 2023 Latinobarómetro Survey. The paper proposes that gender bias—whether societal, data driven, or algorithmic—significantly affects civic engagement. Using machine learning, particularly decision trees, the analysis explores how self-reported societal bias (machismo norms) interacts with personal characteristics and circumstances to shape civic participation. The findings show that individuals with reportedly low levels of gender bias, who express political interest, have high levels of education, and align with left-wing views, are more likely to participate. The paper also explores different strategies to mitigate gender bias in both the data and the algorithms, demonstrating that gender bias remains a persistent factor even after applying corrective measures. Notably, lower machismo thresholds are required for participation in more egalitarian societies, with men needing to exhibit especially low machismo levels. Ultimately, the findings emphasize the importance of integrated strategies to tackle gender bias and increase participation, offering a framework for future studies to expand on nonlinear and complex social dynamics.Publication Governance in State-Owned Enterprises Revisited : The Cases of Water and Electricity in Latin America and the Caribbean(2011-08-01)This paper studies the governance structure of state-owned enterprises in the water and electricity sectors of Latin America and the Caribbean. Through a unique dataset, the paper compares 44 leading state companies of the region based on an aggregate measure of corporate governance and six salient aspects of their design: board, chief executive officer, performance orientation, management, legal framework, and transparency/disclosure. The results indicate the need for improvement in areas such as the selection and appointment of directors to the board and the performance-orientation of the enterprises. The paper also highlights the importance of discussing the management of state-owned enterprises in the wider context of public sector governance, with particular focus on accountability. Moreover, it recognizes the role of accountability as central in the management of state-owned enterprises, recommending a better understanding of regulation and performance management. The paper finds a positive correlation between corporate governance and the utilities' performance. Among the different aspects of corporate governance, performance orientation and professional management seem to be the highest contributors to well-performing state-owned enterprises. State-owned enterprises in the electricity sector show higher governance levels than those in the water sector.Publication The Political Economy of the Middle Class in the Dominican Republic : Individualization of Public Goods, Lack of Institutional Trust and Weak Collective Action(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-04)This paper tries to uncover some of the hidden factors behind poor public service delivery in the Dominican Republic. By looking at three sector cases, education, health and electricity, it is possible to observe that in this setting of low quality of public services the "middle class" is opting out from the system and adopting private solutions to collective problems. The combination of this opting out behavior with low levels of institutional trust, especially among "middle class" members, fragmented interests and clientelism, among other factors, results in weak collective action and lack of effective demand for improvements in service provision. Some of the tentative policy options to break this sub-optimal equilibrium are i) to build capacity in civil society organizations and help them forming a pro-reform coalition, ii) reduce the gap between the middle class and the poorer by trying to improve the provision of public goods and enlarging the welfare state, and (iii) increase transparency mechanisms and introduce e-government formulas in order to optimize the allocation of public resources.Publication Results in the Latin America and Caribbean Region 2015, Volume 5(Washington, DC, 2015-04)In the past decade, Latin America and the Caribbean has achieved impressive social and economic successes. For the first time in history, more people are in the middle class than in poverty. Inequality, although still high, declined markedly. Growth, jobs and effective social programs have transformed the lives of millions. In a striking departure from the crisis-prone Latin America of the past, the region has shown it is better prepared to weather the brunt of the global economic slowdown. Now, the region faces the challenge of maintaining and expanding its hard won gains in an adverse context of low growth. This is caused in part by a decrease in commodity prices and reduced economic activity in major commercial partners such as China. In such a scenario, achieving development results - and learning from them - becomes more important. This publication showcases stories about people and how their lives have been improved through better health and education, youth employment, disaster recovery and preparedness, infrastructure, and more.Publication Citizens, Politicians, and Providers : The Latin American Experience with Service Delivery Reform(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2005)Children regularly receiving health visits and education, the sick receiving proper and timely health care, safe water flowing out of the tap, electricity reliably reaching homes and businesses-these apparently simple events are taken for granted in developed countries. In Latin America, despite two decades of social and infrastructure improvements, the poor and many of the middle class make do with low-quality services. Far too many of the poor receive no services. Improving service delivery to the poor is both a widespread political demand, and central to the realization of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). This book interprets service delivery successes, and failures in Latin America and provides guidance to policymakers, and development practitioners on shaping public action to provide better-quality services for all. Its analysis builds on the accountability framework developed in the Bank's World Development Report 2004: Making Services Work for Poor People, which emphasizes the behavior of people-from teachers to administrators, politicians, and rich and poor citizens-within the chain of interactions, from demand to actual service delivery. The report seeks to answer an essential question: If accountability relationships among citizens, policymakers, and service providers are key to effective service delivery, and there have been both systemic reforms (expanding national and local democracy), and an array of specific experiments (privatization, increased choice), why is service delivery in Latin America still so inequitable, and often of low quality?
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Choosing Our Future(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-04)Education can propel faster and better climate action in two crucial ways. First, education can galvanize behavior change at scale - not just for tomorrow, but also for today. Second, education can unlock skills and innovation to shift economies onto greener trajectories for growth. At the same time, education needs to be protected from climate change. Extreme climate events and temperatures are already eroding hard-won progress on schooling and learning. Climate change is causing school closures, learning losses, and dropouts. These will turn into long-run inter-generational earnings losses putting into jeopardy education’s powerful potential for spurring poverty alleviation and economic growth. Governments can act now to adapt schools for climate change in cost-effective ways. This report outlines new data, evidence, and examples on how countries can harness education to propel climate action. It provides an actionable policy agenda to meet development, education, and climate goals together, recognizing that tackling climate change requires changes to individual beliefs, behaviors, and skills – changes that education is uniquely positioned to catalyze.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-21)This report provides an up-to-date overview of existing and emerging carbon pricing instruments around the world, including international, national, and subnational initiatives. It also investigates trends surrounding the development and implementation of carbon pricing instruments and some of the drivers seen over the past year. Specifically, this report covers carbon taxes, emissions trading systems (ETSs), and crediting mechanisms. Key topics covered in the 2024 report include uptake of ETSs and carbon taxes in low- and middle- income economies, sectoral coverage of ETSs and carbon taxes, and the use of crediting mechanisms as part of the policy mix.Publication Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05)Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.