Publication: Push and Pull: Emerging Risks in Frontier Economy Access to International Capital Markets
Loading...
Published
2017-02
ISSN
Date
2017-03-15
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Over the past decade, a large number of low- and lower-middle income ‘frontier economies’ have begun to access international private capital markets to meet fiscal financing needs. In this paper we seek to identify drivers of this trend, identify associated risks, and present policy implications for frontier-market policy-makers. Through simple analysis of the characteristics of recent frontier market issuers, we show that smaller, poorer, and less well-governed economies are now accessing global credit markets. Through cross-country regression analysis, however, we demonstrate that the capacity of these countries to issue debt (and the cost of this debt) continues to be influenced by their macroeconomic performance and quality of governance. Drawing on evidence from Ghana and Zambia, we illustrate potential risks arising from recent expansions of access to global debt markets, where rapid debt accumulation of foreign-denominated debt in the context of lessened market discipline and following recent debt relief is now posing pronounced debt sustainability and refinancing risks. We conclude that increased access to international debt markets presents both opportunities and risks to frontier issuers. The new cohort of frontier issuing economies should: i) take careful account of debt risks and debt sustainability considerations when developing fiscal policy and debt strategies; ii) work to reduce the costs of ongoing external borrowing through adopting sound economic policies and protecting credit ratings; and iii) develop domestic debt markets as a potential alternative source of fiscal financing through which to reduce reliance on foreign-denominated Eurobond debt with its associated refinancing and currency risks.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Haque, Tobias; Bogoev, Jane; Smith, Greg. 2017. Push and Pull: Emerging Risks in Frontier Economy Access to International Capital Markets. MFM Discussion Paper;No. 17. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26273 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Addressing Debt Vulnerabilities in Small States(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-03)The papers in this series aim to provide a vehicle for publishing preliminary results on Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management (MFM) topics to encourage discussion and debate. This paper explores two new financing mechanisms that multilateral and bilateral development agencies could consider deploying to address problems of debt sustainability in small states. In this paper the authors provide an initial assessment of these proposals, informed by analysis of small state indebtedness and recent debt dynamics. Proposed financing instruments are predicated on assumptions that small states face high levels of indebtedness, and that reducing debt levels while increasing climate resilience could sustainably reduce such vulnerabilities. The authors find that levels of indebtedness vary widely across small states. Analysis of small state debt dynamics shows that small state debt accumulation has been driven by large primary and current account deficits and slow economic growth. Debt reduction from new mechanisms can only be expected to be sustainable, therefore, if countries simultaneously address the macroeconomic imbalances driving debt accumulation. The authors demonstrate that, while exposure to natural disasters is likely to have exacerbated economic management challenges in some small states, such exposures are unlikely to be the only important cause of indebtedness. The authors conclude that proposed new financing instruments can potentially help reduce small state debt burdens and gain fiscal space for climate adaptation but will not present a sustainable solution to problems of small state debt risks unless they involve macroeconomic and structural reforms to address the underlying imbalances driving rapid debt accumulation.Publication Capacity Constraints and Public Financial Management in Small Pacific Island Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-12)Drawing on Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability assessment scores from 118 countries, this paper provides the first comparative analysis of public financial management performance in small Pacific Island Countries (PICs). It applies a Tobit regression model across the full cross-country sample of Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability scores and country variables to identify potential causes for the observed underperformance of Pacific Island countries relative to other countries of similar income. First, the analysis finds small population size to be negatively correlated with Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability scores, with the "population penalty" faced by small Pacific Island countries sufficient to explain observed underperformance. Second, through application of a new capacity index of Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability dimensions, it finds strong evidence in support of the hypothesis that small population size impacts scores through the imposition of capacity constraints: with a limited pool of human capital, small countries face severe and permanent challenges in accessing an adequate range and depth of technical skills to fulfill all functions assessed through the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability framework. These findings suggest that approaches to strengthening public financial management in small Pacific Island countries should involve: i) careful prioritization of public financial management capacity toward areas that represent binding constraints to development; ii) adoption of public financial management systems that can function within inherent and binding capacity constraints, rather than wholesale adoption of "best practice" imported systems; and iii) consideration of options for accessing external capacity to support public financial management systems on a long-term basis, from regional agencies, the private sector, or donors.Publication Ghana Economic Update, October 2014(Washington, DC, 2014-10)This report is the most recent in a series aimed at monitoring economic developments in Ghana and has two sections. The first section summarizes the recent macroeconomic developments in the country while the second section presents the main findings on poverty and employment published recently by the Ghana statistical service. Ghana s overall macroeconomic conditions have deteriorated further in 2014 with large twin-deficits lingering, fueling government debt and inflation, a sharp depreciation of its currency, and a weaker pace of economic growth. The fiscal deficit remains the biggest source of vulnerability in the Ghanaian economy. Preliminary figures show the fiscal deficit was 9.2 percent of GDP in the first half of 2014, driven by the high wage bill and rising interest costs. The wage bill grew 25.7 percent (y-o-y) during the first half of 2014 despite promised measures to contain it, while interest payments reached 5% of GDP. Total domestic revenue collections were dragged down by a contraction in non-tax revenue while tax revenue only increased slightly to 15.6 percent of GDP. With large expenditures planned for the second half of the year, the deficit is projected to be around 10% of GDP, above the government s 8.8 percent target for 2014. A careful analysis of the determinants of poverty and inequality, and their interaction with labor market variables is just beginning, as the 2013 surveys were just released. However, these preliminary findings highlight how critical are Ghana s policy decisions over the next 12 months to pursue more inclusive and stable growth. Urgent efforts are needed to build a more predictable policy environment that facilitates diversification from capital intensive activities in extractive industries towards more labor and land intensive activities in the agriculture and service sectors.Publication Afghanistan's Development Gains(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-01-21)This note outlines some of the major gains that have been achieved in Afghanistan since the US-led intervention in 2001. The analysis is informed by comparisons to development progress and outcomes in other low-income countries over the same period. Afghanistan remains mired in conflict and faces immense development challenges. However, donor and government programs executed in the context of rapid economic growth and sound macroeconomic management have supported rapid improvements in provision of basic public services and infrastructure over the past two decades. While progress has been uneven and data to assess progress is sometimes limited or unreliable, increased access to services and infrastructure has driven huge development gains, often far outpacing progress achieved in other low-income countries. Against many indicators, Afghanistan is now performing similarly to other countries at its level of incomes, while receiving similar levels of civilian aid. Development gains remain fragile, however, and continued international support will be required to avoid reversal of recent progress. Section two outlines the extent of international assistance to Afghanistan since 2001. Section three reviews economic performance and overall macroeconomic management. Section four shows how access to services and infrastructure has improved. Section five shows how improved access to services has led to major improvements in development outcomes, including for women. The final section highlights continued weakness in governance and the need for ongoing international support.Publication Reprioritizing Government Spending on Health : Pushing an Elephant Up the Stairs?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-01)Countries vary widely with respect to the share of government spending on health, a metric that can serve as a proxy for the extent to which health is prioritized by governments. World Health Organization (WHO) data estimate that, in 2011, health's share of aggregate government expenditure in the 170 countries for which data were available averaged 12 percent. However, country differences were striking: ranging from a low of 1 percent in Myanmar to a high of 28 percent in Costa Rica. Some of the observed differences in health's share of government spending across countries are unsurprisingly related to differences in national income. However, significant variations exist in health's share of government spending even after controlling for national income. This paper provides a global overview of health's share of government spending and summarizes key theoretical and empirical perspectives on allocation of public resources to health vis-a-vis other sectors from the perspective of reprioritization, one of the modalities for realizing fiscal space for health. Theory and cross-country empirical analyses do not provide clear, cut explanations for the observed variations in government prioritization of health. Standard economic theory arguments that are often used to justify public financing for health are equally applicable to many other sectors including defense, education, and infrastructure. To date, empirical work on prioritization has been sparse: available cross-country econometric analyses suggests that factors such as democratization, lower levels of corruption, ethnolinguistic homogeneity, and more women in public office are correlated with higher shares of public spending on health; however, these findings are not robust and are sensitive to model specification. Evidence from case studies suggests that country-specific political economy considerations are key, and that results-focused reform efforts, in particular efforts to explicitly expand the breadth and depth of health coverage as opposed to efforts focused only on government budgetary targets, are more likely to result in sustained and politically-feasible prioritization of health from a fiscal space perspective.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Recipe for a Livable Planet(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-20)The global agrifood system has been largely overlooked in the fight against climate change. Yet, greenhouse gas emissions from the agrifood system are so big that they alone could cause the world to miss the goal of keeping global average temperatures from rising above 1.5 centigrade compared to preindustrial levels. Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood must be cut to net zero by 2050 to achieve this goal. Recipe for a Livable Planet: Achieving Net Zero Emissions in the Agrifood System offers the first comprehensive global strategic framework to mitigate the agrifood system’s contributions to climate change, detailing affordable and readily available measures that can cut nearly a third of the world’s planet heating emissions while ensuring global food security. These actions, which are urgently needed, offer three additional benefits: improving food supply reliability, strengthening the global food system’s resilience to climate change, and safeguarding vulnerable populations. This practical guide outlines global actions and specific steps that countries at all income levels can take starting now, focusing on six key areas: investments, incentives, information, innovation, institutions, and inclusion. Calling for collaboration among governments, businesses, citizens, and international organizations, it maps a pathway to making agrifood a significant contributor to addressing climate change and healing the planet.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10)The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.Publication Accelerating Investment: Challenges and Policies(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-19)Investment is the engine that expands productive capacity, modernizes infrastructure, creates jobs, and drives progress toward development and climate goals. Yet developing economies face an investment shortfall of historic proportions. Even as development needs rise, investment growth has slowed to about half its pace in the 2000s. Public investment alone cannot fill this gap. Private investment must play the leading role in reigniting growth, creating jobs, and supporting the transition to a more sustainable and resilient future. This book presents the World Bank’s most comprehensive assessment of investment in emerging and developing economies. It examines why investment matters, why it has stalled, and what it will take to revive it. The analysis highlights that countries that have successfully triggered investment booms combined sound macroeconomic frameworks with reforms that improved the business climate, strengthened governance, and mobilized private capital. History shows that when investment surges, economies grow faster, job creation accelerates, and poverty declines more rapidly. Reversing today’s slowdown is within reach — through credible fiscal and monetary policies, well-targeted public investment that attracts private capital, and stronger international cooperation to mobilize finance at scale. Reigniting investment is not just a national priority — it is a global imperative.Publication The Global Findex Database 2025: Connectivity and Financial Inclusion in the Digital Economy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-16)The Global Findex 2025 reveals how mobile technology is equipping more adults around the world to own and use financial accounts to save formally, access credit, make and receive digital payments, and pursue opportunities. Including the inaugural Global Findex Digital Connectivity Tracker, this fifth edition of Global Findex presents new insights on the interactions among mobile phone ownership, internet use, and financial inclusion. The Global Findex is the world’s most comprehensive database on digital and financial inclusion. It is also the only global source of comparable demand-side data, allowing cross-country analysis of how adults access and use mobile phones, the internet, and financial accounts to reach digital information and resources, save, borrow, make payments, and manage their financial health. Data for the Global Findex 2025 were collected from nationally representative surveys of about 145,000 adults in 141 economies. The latest edition follows the 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2021 editions and includes new series measuring mobile phone ownership and internet use, digital safety, and frequency of transactions using financial services. The Global Findex 2025 is an indispensable resource for policy makers in the fields of digital connectivity and financial inclusion, as well as for practitioners, researchers, and development professionals.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.