Publication:
Diffusion of Kyoto's Clean Development Mechanism

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dc.contributor.authorRahman, Shaikh M.
dc.contributor.authorDinar, Ariel
dc.contributor.authorLarson, Donald F.
dc.date.accessioned2012-03-30T07:32:18Z
dc.date.available2012-03-30T07:32:18Z
dc.date.issued2010
dc.description.abstractTo date, developed countries can only tap mitigation opportunities in developing countries by investing in projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Yet CDM investments have so far failed to reach all of the high-potential sectors identified in IPCC reports. This raises doubts about whether the CDM will be able to generate an adequate supply of credits from the limited areas where it has proved successful. Our paper examines the current trajectory of potential mitigation entering the CDM pipeline and projects it forward under the assumption that the diffusion of the CDM will follow a path similar to other kinds of innovations. Projections are then compared to pre-CDM predictions of the mechanism's potential market size used to assess Kyoto's cost, in order to discem whether limits on the types of project entering the pipeline will also limit the eventual supply of certified emission reductions (CERs). The main finding of the paper is that the mechanism is on track to deliver an average annual flow of roughly 700 million CERs by the close of 2012 and nearly to 1100 million tons by 2020. Parameter tests suggest that currently identified CDM investments will exceed early model predictions of the potential market for CDM projects. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.en
dc.identifier.citationTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
dc.identifier.issn0040-1625
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/5326
dc.language.isoEN
dc.relation.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.titleDiffusion of Kyoto's Clean Development Mechanismen
dc.title.alternativeTechnological Forecasting and Social Changeen
dc.typeJournal Articleen
dc.typeArticle de journalfr
dc.typeArtículo de revistaes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.doctypeJournal Article
okr.externalcontentExternal Content
okr.identifier.doi10.1016/j.techfore.2010.03.001
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum2013
okr.identifier.internaldocumentumWOS:000283567700017
okr.journal.nbpages1391-1400
okr.language.supporteden
okr.peerreviewAcademic Peer Review
okr.volume77
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationccfad8dc-1a1e-50df-9b84-ea4470d50b39
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryccfad8dc-1a1e-50df-9b84-ea4470d50b39
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