Publication: Structural Change, Dualism and Economic Development : The Role of the Vulnerable Poor on Marginal Lands
Loading...
Published
2013-05
ISSN
Date
2013-09-04
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Empirical evidence indicates that in many developing regions, the extreme poor in more marginal land areas form a "residual" pool of rural labor. Structural transformation in such developing economies depends crucially on labor and land use decisions of these most-vulnerable populations located on abundant but marginal agricultural land. Although the modern sector may be the source of dynamic growth through learning-by-doing and knowledge spillovers, patterns of labor, land and other natural resources use in the rural economy matter in the overall dynamics of structural change. The concentration of the rural poor on marginal lands is essentially a barometer of economy-wide development. As long as there are abundant marginal lands for cultivation, they serve to absorb rural migrants, increased population, and displaced unskilled labor from elsewhere in the economy. Moreover, the economy is vulnerable to the "Dutch disease" effects of a booming primary products sector. As a consequence, productivity increases and expansion in the commercial primary production sector will cause manufacturing employment and output to contract, until complete specialization occurs. Avoiding such an outcome and combating the inherent dualism of the economy requires both targeted polices for the modern sector and traditional agriculture on marginal lands.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Barbier, Edward B.. 2013. Structural Change, Dualism and Economic Development : The Role of the Vulnerable Poor on Marginal Lands. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6456. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/15596 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Climate and Social Sustainability in Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Contexts(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)Climate change is widely recognized as a driver of violent conflict, but its broader social effects remain less understood. Ignoring these dimensions risks a vicious cycle where climate policies might undermine socially just adaptation. Evidence is still limited on how climate shocks influence political participation, trust, or migration. This paper helps fill that gap by examining links between climate change, conflict, and social sustainability, with a focus on inclusion, resilience, cohesion, and legitimacy. Using secondary data from 2019–24, the study applies simple correlation-based methods to test three hypotheses on the nature, severity, and composition of these associations. The analysis combines multiple climate impact measures, new conflict classifications, recent social sustainability frameworks, and controls for population and geography. The results reveal strong correlations—not causation—between climate events and contexts of fragility, conflict, and violence. Climate impacts are most pronounced in both national and subnational conflict settings. The study also finds robust links between fragility, conflict, and violence and low levels of social sustainability, reflecting its role as both a driver and consequence of conflict. Some dimensions—such as violent events and insecurity—appear weaker in areas most affected by climate shocks. Two of the hypotheses are supported, and one remains inconclusive.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Institutional Capacity for Policy Implementation: An Analytical Framework(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)State capacity is an important prerequisite for policy implementation, yet at the country level it is difficult to measure, assess, and reform. This paper proposes a focus on institutional capacity: the ability of public institutions to implement the specific policy mandates for which they are responsible. Based on a review of existing literature, the paper defines the different dimensions that compose institutional capacity and groups them into two cross-cutting categories: organizational dimensions (personnel, financial resources, information systems, and management practices) and governance dimensions (transparency, independence, and accountability). The paper proposes measures for organizational and governance dimensions using existing data, shows intra-institutional variation of these measures within countries, and discusses how new data could be collected for better measurement of these concepts. Finally, the paper illustrates how the framework can be used to diagnose the sources of common problems related to weak policy implementation.Publication South Africa’s Fragmented Cities: The Unequal Burden of Labor Market Frictions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-08)Using high-resolution administrative, census, and satellite data, this paper shows that South African cities are characterized by spatial mismatches between where people live and where jobs are located, relative to 20 global peers. Areas within 5 kilometers of commercial centers have 9,300 fewer residents per square kilometer than expected, which is 60 percent below the global median. Poor, dense neighborhoods are most affected. In Johannesburg, a 10-percentile increase in distance from the nearest business hub corresponds to a 3.7-percentile drop in asset wealth (a proxy of household wellbeing) and 4.9-percentile drop in employment. In Cape Town, the declines are 4.0 and 3.7 percentiles, respectively. Employment is 87 percent lower in the poorest decile than the richest in Johannesburg and 61 percent lower in Cape Town. These findings suggest that South Africa’s spatial organization of people and economic activity constrains agglomeration and reinforces inequality. This methodology provides a scalable and standardized data-driven framework to analyze spatial accessibility and agglomeration frictions in complex, data-constrained urban systems.Publication Investment in Emerging and Developing Economies(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)The world faces a pressing challenge to meet key development objectives amid slowing growth and rising macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. With the number of job seekers rising rapidly, infrastructure shortfalls continuing to be large, and climate costs mounting, the case for a significant investment push has never been stronger. Yet the capacity to respond in many emerging markets and developing economies has eroded. Since the global financial crisis, investment growth has slowed to about half its pace in the 2000s, with both public and private investment weakening. Foreign direct investment inflows—a critical source of capital, technology, and managerial know-how—have also fallen sharply and become increasingly concentrated, leaving low-income countries with only a marginal share. The risks of further retrenchment are significant, as trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and elevated debt levels continue to weigh on investment. Reigniting momentum will require ambitious domestic reforms to strengthen institutions, rebuild macro-fiscal stability, and deepen trade and investment integration—the foundations of a supportive business climate. At the same time, international cooperation is indispensable. A renewed commitment to a predictable system of cross-border trade and investment flows, combined with scaled-up financial support and sustained technical assistance, is essential to help emerging markets and developing economies—especially low-income countries and economies in fragile and conflict situations—bridge financing gaps and implement the domestic reforms needed to restore investment as an engine of growth, jobs, and development.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Accounting for Gender Production from a Growth Accounting Framework in Sub-Saharan Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-08)This paper draws on an expanded growth accounting framework to estimate the relative contribution of women to growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Empirical results show a consistently positive contribution of women to growth in gross domestic product in the region, both during economic downturns and growth spurts. This is despite the absence of any valuation of home-produced goods and informal sector production, which accounts for the bulk of womens production, in national product and income accounts. Women's positive contribution is largely attributed to their increased rates of labor force participation in wage employment and the reduction in the gender gap in education in recent years.Publication Inclusive Growth Analytics : Framework and Application(2009-03-01)This paper argues that inclusive growth analytics has a distinct character focusing on both the pace and pattern of growth. Traditionally, applied country-specific poverty and growth analyses have been done separately. This paper describes the conceptual elements for an analytical strategy aimed to integrate these two strands of analyses, and to identify and prioritize country-specific constraints to sustained and inclusive growth. The authors apply the framework to the case of Zambia. The analysis suggests that income growth in Zambia is constrained by poor access to domestic and international markets, inputs, extension services, and information. High indirect costs - mostly attributable to infrastructure service-related inputs in production including energy, transport, telecom, water, but also insurance, marketing, and professional services - undermine Zambia's competitiveness, limit job creation, and therefore serve as a major constraint to inclusive growth. Improving the quality and access to secondary and tertiary education is essential if the poor are to benefit from future growth of the non-farm economy. Weak governance and, in particular, poor government effectiveness are factors behind the market coordination failures and the identified government failures, and are as such major obstacles to inclusive growth in Zambia.Publication Uganda - Moving Beyond Recovery, Investment and Behavior Change, For Growth, Volume 2, Overview(Washington, DC, 2007-09)In 2006 most of the people of Uganda, with the notable exception of those in the conflict-blighted Northern Region, enjoy a better quality of life and brighter opportunities in a stable and growing economy. Uganda's economy has bounced back beyond what could be regarded as recovery, with real incomes per person now exceeding the levels reached at Independence in 1962. The report structure is as follows: volume one synthesizes the conclusions from analysis in Volume two. In Chapter 1 of Volume two, emphasis is placed on understanding what drove past growth at macro and sector levels, and in particular, on how Uganda's firms and farms have evolved. Chapter 2 continues the retrospective of past growth in agriculture, the most important sector of the economy. The report provides a comprehensive review of growth trends in agriculture, using several data sources. The chapter provides fresh insights on recent trends in poverty and inequality. Chapter 3 presents growth diagnosis and it identifies short-term actions to remove emerging constraints to present and near-term future growth. Chapter 4 models alternative future growth paths and the impact o f alternative public investments on growth using a SAM-based CGE model. The analysis reveals there is little to be gained from 'robbing Peter to pay Paul' for example fixing infrastructure by reducing education financing. Chapters 6 and 7 return to the short-term priorities to remove binding constraints to growth, and put meat on the actions identified in Chapter 3 as being required in the financial sector (Chapter 6) and in infrastructure (Chapter 7). Finally, Chapter 8 ends by assessing the scope for an externally financed scale up of infrastructure.Publication A Vision for Nepal : Policy Notes for the Government, Volume 1. Synthesis Report(Washington, DC, 2014)Nepal needs a new economic model to achieve faster and sustained growth as well as further improvements in human development and poverty outcomes. Economic growth, while ro¬bust at around 4 percent annual average since 2005, is far from the level needed to achieve the government s ambitious targets. The economy, highly dependent on remittances, lacks the nec¬essary dynamism. While substantial gains have been made to reduce poverty and expand access to services, achieving further progress will require more determined and targeted state intervention. To redefine Nepal s growth model, public policy should focus on 3 I s: Investment, In¬frastructure, and Inclusion. Investment is the bedrock of a sustainable growth model but in Nepal, the state, firms and households critically under-invest, with gross fixed capital formation between 19.9 and 22.2 percent of GDP over the past decade (compared to 30 percent or more in fast-growing countries in East Asia). In order to unlock investment as well as to expand access to services and opportunities for all, public infra¬structure is critical, but Nepal is under-connected and under-powered. Finally, growth alone will not deliver continued fast progress on inequality and poverty reduction unless the growth model is calibrated for inclusion, which in turn can help sustain dynamic growth.Publication Africa's Pulse, April 2013 : An Analysis of Issues Shaping Africa's Economic Future(Washington, DC, 2013-04)This Africa's pulse newsletter includes the following headings: Sub-Saharan African countries continue to grow at a steady pace; the region's decade-long economic expansion appears sustainable; and for newly resource-rich countries, strong governance will be key to harnessing resource wealth for development
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Rising from the Depths(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2023)In 2022, South Sudan was ranked as the world’s most vulnerable country to climate change and the one most lacking in coping capacity. South Sudan is also one of the world’s most politically fragile countries. Rising from the Depths explores opportunities and trade-offs for aligning South Sudan’s water-related investments and policies with its commitment to peace and its climate change adaptation needs. This report elevates water security as an issue critical for national development and stability—not just as a humanitarian need. With a focus on water security for people, production, and protection, the report shows that water insecurity is an existential threat to South Sudan. One in two South Sudanese live in areas exposed to moderate flood hazard; the country ranks seventh in the world for share of population exposed to river floods. Lack of access to safe drinking water supply and sanitation is also a core concern: more than 60 percent of the population use unimproved sources and 75 percent practice open defecation. Women and girls tend to be disproportionately impacted by these water-related threats. The report illustrates the negative implications of these challenges on health and nutrition, forced displacement, gender, and conflict. Yet, the challenges of water in South Sudan are also an opportunity. Rising from the Depths shows that South Sudan can harness the ubiquity of water as a tool to advance national development and stability. Priorities include strengthening nascent policy and institutional frameworks to guide water sector investments and ensure their sustainability, using a portfolio of infrastructure options to manage water resources, and addressing the country’s water supply and sanitation crisis. The identification, design, and implementation of investments should be guided by comprehensive feasibility assessments that include the investments' impact on the country’s rich biodiversity and social and conflict dynamics. Although infrastructure will be needed, it will not be enough. Water security in South Sudan will be achieved not solely by trying to control water and divert its flow but also by focusing on increasing community preparedness; delineating areas for water; and making productive use of water for household consumption, livelihoods, and development.Publication Bosnia and Herzegovina(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-06)This Technical Note was prepared in the context of a joint World Bank-IMF Financial Sector Assessment Program mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina during October-November 2014. Bosnia’s capital markets are currently small, but they have the potential to play a more important role in the country’s future.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-01-09)Note: Chart 1.2.B has been updated on January 18, 2024. Chart 2.2.3 B has been updated on January 14, 2024. Global growth is expected to slow further this year, reflecting the lagged and ongoing effects of tight monetary policy to rein in inflation, restrictive credit conditions, and anemic global trade and investment. Downside risks include an escalation of the recent conflict in the Middle East, financial stress, persistent inflation, weaker-than-expected activity in China, trade fragmentation, and climate-related disasters. Against this backdrop, policy makers face enormous challenges. In emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), commodity exporters face the enduring challenges posed by fiscal policy procyclicality and volatility, which highlight the need for robust fiscal frameworks. Across EMDEs, previous episodes of investment growth acceleration underscore the critical importance of macroeconomic and structural policies and an enabling institutional environment in bolstering investment and long-term growth. At the global level, cooperation needs to be strengthened to provide debt relief, facilitate trade integration, tackle climate change, and alleviate food insecurity.Publication How Much Does Latin America Gain from Enhanced Cross-Border Electricity Trade in the Short Run?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06)Regional or cross-border trade of electricity would be beneficial for all trading partners for multiple reasons. However, cross-border electricity trade in Latin America is limited, and the potential benefits have been forfeited. This study estimates the potential savings on electricity supply costs if 20 Latin American countries allowed unrestricted trade of electricity between the borders without expanding their current electricity generation capacity. Two hypothetical electricity trade scenarios—unconstrained trade of electricity between the countries within the Andean, Central, and Mercosur subregions and full regional trade involving all 20 countries are simulated using a power system model. The study shows that the volume of cross-border electricity trade would increase by 13 and 29 percent under the subregional and regional scenarios, respectively. The region would gain US$1.5 billion annually under the subregional scenario and almost US$2 billion under the full regional scenario. More than half of this gain would be realized by the Andean subregion under both scenarios. These are short-term benefits without expanding the current electricity generation capacities. In the future, when countries add more generation capacity to meet their increasing demand, the potential benefits of electricity trade would be higher. A further study is needed to measure the increased benefits in the long run.