Publication:
Trading Towards Sustainability: The Role of Trade Policies in Indonesia’s Green Transformation

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (3.18 MB)
1,495 downloads
English Text (571.33 KB)
46 downloads
Other Files
Executive Summary (370.2 KB)
292 downloads
Published
2024-01-22
ISSN
Date
2024-01-22
Editor(s)
Abstract
Climate change - and efforts to mitigate and adapt to it - will affect global flows of trade and Indonesia’s ability to transition to a more environmentally sustainable economy on its path to become a high-income economy is, therefore, interlinked with trade policy. Environmental policy stringency (EPS) is increasing around the globe - a crucial challenge lies in harmonizing these with sustained economic growth, yet both goals can be reached. Although trade flows facilitate emissions, they are also a critical part of the solution, including through trade in environmental goods (EGs) and plastic substitutes - with important economic spillovers. This report provides a detailed analysis of the role of trade and trade policy on EGs and plastic substitutes in Indonesia’s green transition. Chapter one describes the need for, and urgency of, this transition, by looking at the carbon intensity of Indonesia’s trade, the impacts of environmental policies of Indonesia and key trading partners, and the roles of EGs. Chapter two examines where Indonesia stands on the level of trade in EGs and plastic substitutes and the competitiveness of EGs trade. Chapter three explores trade agreements and tariffs and simulates potential impacts of tariff reforms - including through multilateral actions. Chapter four examines what non-tariff measures (NTMs) apply on the products including inputs of firms exporting EGs and assesses which NTMs may be costly. Finally, chapter five concludes with policy recommendations.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Montfaucon, Angella Faith; Lakatos, Csilla; Agnimaruto, Bayu; Silberring, Jana Mirjam. 2024. Trading Towards Sustainability: The Role of Trade Policies in Indonesia’s Green Transformation. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/40925 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Building a Dataset for Non-Tariff Measures and its Usage
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023) Montfaucon, Angella Faith; Cali, Massimiliano; Agnimaruto, Bayu; Silberring, Jana Mirjam; Hasmand, Agnesia Adhissa; Lakatos, Csilla; Pasha, Mochamad
    As import tariffs have been declining over the past decades, non-tariff measures (NTMs) have become the most frequently used measures in trade policy. The increasing use of NTMs in global trade has highlighted the need for timely, high frequency and accurate data in order to better understand the implications that NTMs have on products, firms and the economy. This manual describes the first high-frequency panel dataset built by the World Bank on the universe of NTMs applied by a country, i.e. Indonesia. The manual includes a comprehensive overview of the purpose, building procedures and usage of the data for Indonesia. The dataset expands on and improves on existing data on Indonesian NTMs collected by other institutions (UNCTAD and ERIA) by covering a broader source base, customizing the data, and by increasing the frequency of updates. By documenting the data collection and transformation process, the manual hopes to facilitate the construction of similar datasets in other countries.
  • Publication
    Trading in Green
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-07) Montfaucon, Angella; Lakatos, Csilla; Agnimaruto, Bayu
    Although Indonesia’s economy has diversified over the past decades, natural resource extraction remains a key sector for both the domestic economy as well as international trade. Indonesia’s ability to diversify away from primary products, reduce carbon emissions, adapt to climate change, and transition to a low-carbon economy is strongly interlinked with trade and trade policy. To position itself to benefit from the global transition to a non-carbon economy, Indonesia needs to adapt to new sources of international demand, adjust its existing productive capabilities, and cultivate new green industries. This note analyzes the carbon content of Indonesia’s trade flows.
  • Publication
    Climate Change and Agriculture in South Asia
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012) Laborde, David; Lakatos, Csilla; Nelson, Gerald; Robertson, Richard; Thomas, Marcelle; Yu, Winston; Jansen, Hans G.P.
    There is increasing evidence suggesting that climate change will negatively impact agricultural production in South Asia. Decreased domestic production may make South Asian countries more dependent on imports. The extent to which South Asia will need to increase its imports as a result of climate change will presumably depend on the degree to which the latter will affect domestic output. The effects of climate change on agriculture may well differ substantially for individual South Asian countries and indeed for regions within a given country which can be approximated by food production units. This calls for an analysis of climate change effects on trade flows under alternative trade policy regimes both for agriculture and non-agricultural sectors. The specific objectives of the paper include the following: analyze the extent to which agricultural production in South Asia and elsewhere in the world may be affected by different scenarios regarding climate change; analyze the extent to which changes in domestic production in South Asia resulting from climate change will lead to increased demand for imports by South Asian countries; analyze the effects of increased import demand in South Asia and changing exportable surpluses elsewhere on world market prices of major agricultural commodities consumed in South Asia; to the extent that South Asian governments allow transmission of changes in world market prices to domestic prices, analyze the potential welfare effects of changes in the latter; analyze if, and to what extent, worldwide trade liberalization and implementation of South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) will dampen the effects of climate change on domestic agricultural prices in South Asia. In this context, the report is organized as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two describes the methodology used - with particular attention to how different models and modeling techniques are linked to produce an as accurate as possible assessment based on state-of-the-art knowledge. Chapter three provides an up-to-date analysis of trade flows and policies, and production patterns for key food products in South Asia to explain the context in which climate change is taking place. Chapter four describes the climate change scenarios and illustrates their consequences for crop yields at a global level and for South Asia - and in particular shows the vulnerability of the region to these changes. Baseline design, simulations, and results are discussed in chapter five. The final chapter six provides a short summary, discusses the limitations of the analysis, and derives suggestions and guidelines for future research.
  • Publication
    Revisiting the Gains from Trade in EMDEs
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-24) Battogtvor, Enkhmaa; Majune, Socrates Kraido; Montfaucon, Angella Faith
    Following the gains from variety literature, this paper estimates the welfare impact of growth of the variety of imported goods in 28 countries in East Africa and East Asia and compares the results. While estimating the gains from variety, the elasticities of substitution are estimated for each country at the Harmonized System six-digit level of disaggregation. More than 100,000 elasticities are estimated, and the paper constructs an exact price index to measure the welfare gains from variety growth. The findings show that from 1995 to 2021, African countries gained on average 5.47 percent of their gross domestic product (0.20 percent annually), and Asian countries excluding Bhutan gained 3.46 percent (0.13 percent annually). Bhutan, Mongolia, Rwanda, and Mozambique are among the countries with the highest gains over the sample period. The evidence indicates that the creation and extension of trade linkages can be a source of welfare, particularly for small and transitioning economies, a point that is occasionally overlooked in discussions about the positive effects of globalization and economic integration. The estimated elasticities may also be useful for other studies.
  • Publication
    Trade Policy, Green Goods and the Labor Market
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-17) Coulibaly, Souleymane; Montfaucon, Angella Faith; Nigatu, Natnael Simachew; Seri-Atsebi, Regina
    Green goods trade will matter for the transition to a low-carbon global economy as well as for its adaptive capacity to climate events. This study explores green goods trade and related trade policies in the Philippines and its relationship with the labor markets. The paper finds that the country’s green goods trade is limited due to certain costly non-tariff measures affecting energy transition and other types of green goods. Of about 90 measures, five are identified as reform candidates. Reforming these could enhance green goods trade, as there is a positive correlation between imports and exports of green goods. However, increased exports could reduce the number of high-skilled workers, while imports might increase the shares of female workers within industries. Green goods imports also correlate with higher earnings across industries. The study suggests that trade policy reforms may lead to labor shifts, necessitating complementary policies for affected workers when making trade policies more climate-friendly.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2023: Lower Prices, Little Relief
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-04-27) World Bank Group
    Global commodity prices fell 14 percent in the first quarter of 2023, and by the end of March, they were roughly 30 percent below their June 2022 peak. The unwinding of prices reflects a combination of slowing economic activity, favorable winter weather, and a global reallocation of commodity trade flows. Commodity prices are expected to fall by 21 percent this year and remain mostly stable in 2024, although the outlook is subject to multiple risks in a highly uncertain environment. These risks include intensification of geopolitical tensions, the strength of demand from China following its post-COVID reopening, likely energy supply disruptions, and weather conditions, including the emerging El Niño. A Special Focus section evaluates the performance of several approaches used to forecast prices of seven industrial commodities. It finds that futures prices, which are widely used for price forecasts, often lead to large forecast errors. Time-series models based on multiple independent variables tend to outperform other model-based approaches as well as futures prices. Machine-learning techniques yield better forecasts than some of the traditional approaches. The analysis suggests that augmenting model-based forecasting approaches—by incorporating the dynamics of commodity prices over time and controlling for other economic factors—enhances forecast accuracy.
  • Publication
    Pakistan Country Climate and Development Report
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11) World Bank Group
    Integrating climate and development is a pillar of the World Bank Group’s (WBG) Climate Change Action Plan 2021-25. To advance its implementation, the WBG has launched the Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR). This new, core diagnostic tool analyzes how a country’s development goals can be achieved in the context of adapting to, and mitigating against, climate change. As such, the Pakistan CCDR provides analysis and policy recommendations on how to harmonize the country’s efforts to achieve further economic growth and lower poverty rates, on the one hand, with the pursuit of a climate-resilient, low-carbon, and equitable development path, on the other. In light of the devastating 2022 heatwaves and floods and the country’s vulnerability profile, the CCDR puts a strong emphasis on the need for building long-term resilience. Further, it explores pathways for Pakistan to achieve deep decarbonization by 2050, and eventually reach net-zero emissions by 2070 without undermining its development ambitions. It also provides assessment on technical, financial and institutional and governance frameworks needed for these climate transitions. Most importantly, it attempts to capture the centrality of people in climate policies by assessing how climate risks affect lives and livelihoods, and ways in which governments can build resilience and address poverty, distributional and job impact of climate change and climate actions. Lastly, it sheds lights on ways for Pakistan to galvanize cooperation between public and private sectors and support from international communities.
  • Publication
    Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Luna-Bazaldua, Diego; Levin, Victoria; Liberman, Julia; Gala, Priyal Mukesh
    This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.
  • Publication
    Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-29) World Bank
    Commodity prices are set to fall sharply this year, by about 12 percent overall, as weakening global economic growth weighs on demand. In 2026, commodity prices are projected to reach a six-year low. Oil prices are expected to exert substantial downward pressure on the aggregate commodity index in 2025, as a marked slowdown in global oil consumption coincides with expanding supply. The anticipated commodity price softening is broad-based, however, with more than half of the commodities in the forecast set to decrease this year, many by more than 10 percent. The latest shocks to hit commodity markets extend a so far tumultuous decade, marked by the highest level of commodity price volatility in at least half a century. Between 2020 and 2024, commodity price swings were frequent and sharp, with knock-on consequences for economic activity and inflation. In the next two years, commodity prices are expected to put downward pressure on global inflation. Risks to the commodity price projections are tilted to the downside. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in global growth—driven by worsening trade relations or a prolonged tightening of financial conditions—could further depress commodity demand, especially for industrial products. In addition, if OPEC+ fully unwinds its voluntary supply cuts, oil production will far exceed projected consumption. There are also important upside risks to commodity prices—for instance, if geopolitical tensions worsen, threatening oil and gas supplies, or if extreme weather events lead to agricultural and energy price spikes.
  • Publication
    Aspiring Indonesia—Expanding the Middle Class
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-09) World Bank
    Indonesia has seen tremendous progress in poverty reduction over the past couple of decades and, as a result, has made a successful transition from low-income to middle-income country status. As millions have moved out of poverty and extreme poverty, we have also witnessed the rise of Indonesia’s middle class, which now accounts for 20 percent of the total population, or 52 million Indonesians. This group important for Indonesia’s upward trajectory, but it still too small for the ambitions of Indonesia. Expanding the middle class will boost economic growth, strengthen an influential constituency for better governance, and widen and deepen the tax base. An expansion of the middle class, if accompanied by continued growth in the incomes of the poor and vulnerable, will also help to decrease inequality and prevent polarization of the country. One of the key development questions that Indonesia faces is how to expand the middle class. What will be required to bring the 115 million people who are no longer in poverty and vulnerability into the middle class? The future of Indonesia lies partly in the fate of this aspiring middle class, 45 percent of the population, so that they can both share in and help to drive the country’s growing prosperity. Government policy can play an instrumental role in expanding the middle class. This can be done by increasing the level and quality of education, and the skills of the population, and making sure there are well-paid jobs waiting for those in the aspiring middle class. It also means ensuring access to social protection to help lift these aspirers into the middle class and keep them there once they arrive, as well as improving the quality of the public services upon which they currently depend. Resolve to expand the middle class will place greater stress on government budgets. The government will need increasingly rely on the middle class, whose income taxes will finance much of the investment that a growing Indonesia will need. This will require a new social contract with the current – and future – middle class so that they will embrace the policies that both benefit themselves while also helping to expand their ranks, rather than closing off opportunities for others, and creating political polarization—as has occurred in some countries in the region in recent years.