Publication:
Trading Towards Sustainability: The Role of Trade Policies in Indonesia’s Green Transformation

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (3.18 MB)
1,303 downloads
English Text (571.33 KB)
30 downloads
Other Files
Executive Summary (370.2 KB)
256 downloads
Date
2024-01-22
ISSN
Published
2024-01-22
Editor(s)
Abstract
Climate change - and efforts to mitigate and adapt to it - will affect global flows of trade and Indonesia’s ability to transition to a more environmentally sustainable economy on its path to become a high-income economy is, therefore, interlinked with trade policy. Environmental policy stringency (EPS) is increasing around the globe - a crucial challenge lies in harmonizing these with sustained economic growth, yet both goals can be reached. Although trade flows facilitate emissions, they are also a critical part of the solution, including through trade in environmental goods (EGs) and plastic substitutes - with important economic spillovers. This report provides a detailed analysis of the role of trade and trade policy on EGs and plastic substitutes in Indonesia’s green transition. Chapter one describes the need for, and urgency of, this transition, by looking at the carbon intensity of Indonesia’s trade, the impacts of environmental policies of Indonesia and key trading partners, and the roles of EGs. Chapter two examines where Indonesia stands on the level of trade in EGs and plastic substitutes and the competitiveness of EGs trade. Chapter three explores trade agreements and tariffs and simulates potential impacts of tariff reforms - including through multilateral actions. Chapter four examines what non-tariff measures (NTMs) apply on the products including inputs of firms exporting EGs and assesses which NTMs may be costly. Finally, chapter five concludes with policy recommendations.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Montfaucon, Angella Faith; Lakatos, Csilla; Agnimaruto, Bayu; Silberring, Jana Mirjam. 2024. Trading Towards Sustainability: The Role of Trade Policies in Indonesia’s Green Transformation. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/40925 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Building a Dataset for Non-Tariff Measures and its Usage
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023) Montfaucon, Angella Faith; Cali, Massimiliano; Agnimaruto, Bayu; Silberring, Jana Mirjam; Hasmand, Agnesia Adhissa; Lakatos, Csilla; Pasha, Mochamad
    As import tariffs have been declining over the past decades, non-tariff measures (NTMs) have become the most frequently used measures in trade policy. The increasing use of NTMs in global trade has highlighted the need for timely, high frequency and accurate data in order to better understand the implications that NTMs have on products, firms and the economy. This manual describes the first high-frequency panel dataset built by the World Bank on the universe of NTMs applied by a country, i.e. Indonesia. The manual includes a comprehensive overview of the purpose, building procedures and usage of the data for Indonesia. The dataset expands on and improves on existing data on Indonesian NTMs collected by other institutions (UNCTAD and ERIA) by covering a broader source base, customizing the data, and by increasing the frequency of updates. By documenting the data collection and transformation process, the manual hopes to facilitate the construction of similar datasets in other countries.
  • Publication
    Trading in Green
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-07) Montfaucon, Angella; Lakatos, Csilla; Agnimaruto, Bayu
    Although Indonesia’s economy has diversified over the past decades, natural resource extraction remains a key sector for both the domestic economy as well as international trade. Indonesia’s ability to diversify away from primary products, reduce carbon emissions, adapt to climate change, and transition to a low-carbon economy is strongly interlinked with trade and trade policy. To position itself to benefit from the global transition to a non-carbon economy, Indonesia needs to adapt to new sources of international demand, adjust its existing productive capabilities, and cultivate new green industries. This note analyzes the carbon content of Indonesia’s trade flows.
  • Publication
    Climate Change and Agriculture in South Asia
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012) Laborde, David; Lakatos, Csilla; Nelson, Gerald; Robertson, Richard; Thomas, Marcelle; Yu, Winston; Jansen, Hans G.P.
    There is increasing evidence suggesting that climate change will negatively impact agricultural production in South Asia. Decreased domestic production may make South Asian countries more dependent on imports. The extent to which South Asia will need to increase its imports as a result of climate change will presumably depend on the degree to which the latter will affect domestic output. The effects of climate change on agriculture may well differ substantially for individual South Asian countries and indeed for regions within a given country which can be approximated by food production units. This calls for an analysis of climate change effects on trade flows under alternative trade policy regimes both for agriculture and non-agricultural sectors. The specific objectives of the paper include the following: analyze the extent to which agricultural production in South Asia and elsewhere in the world may be affected by different scenarios regarding climate change; analyze the extent to which changes in domestic production in South Asia resulting from climate change will lead to increased demand for imports by South Asian countries; analyze the effects of increased import demand in South Asia and changing exportable surpluses elsewhere on world market prices of major agricultural commodities consumed in South Asia; to the extent that South Asian governments allow transmission of changes in world market prices to domestic prices, analyze the potential welfare effects of changes in the latter; analyze if, and to what extent, worldwide trade liberalization and implementation of South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) will dampen the effects of climate change on domestic agricultural prices in South Asia. In this context, the report is organized as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two describes the methodology used - with particular attention to how different models and modeling techniques are linked to produce an as accurate as possible assessment based on state-of-the-art knowledge. Chapter three provides an up-to-date analysis of trade flows and policies, and production patterns for key food products in South Asia to explain the context in which climate change is taking place. Chapter four describes the climate change scenarios and illustrates their consequences for crop yields at a global level and for South Asia - and in particular shows the vulnerability of the region to these changes. Baseline design, simulations, and results are discussed in chapter five. The final chapter six provides a short summary, discusses the limitations of the analysis, and derives suggestions and guidelines for future research.
  • Publication
    Revisiting the Gains from Trade in EMDEs
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-24) Battogtvor, Enkhmaa; Majune, Socrates Kraido; Montfaucon, Angella Faith
    Following the gains from variety literature, this paper estimates the welfare impact of growth of the variety of imported goods in 28 countries in East Africa and East Asia and compares the results. While estimating the gains from variety, the elasticities of substitution are estimated for each country at the Harmonized System six-digit level of disaggregation. More than 100,000 elasticities are estimated, and the paper constructs an exact price index to measure the welfare gains from variety growth. The findings show that from 1995 to 2021, African countries gained on average 5.47 percent of their gross domestic product (0.20 percent annually), and Asian countries excluding Bhutan gained 3.46 percent (0.13 percent annually). Bhutan, Mongolia, Rwanda, and Mozambique are among the countries with the highest gains over the sample period. The evidence indicates that the creation and extension of trade linkages can be a source of welfare, particularly for small and transitioning economies, a point that is occasionally overlooked in discussions about the positive effects of globalization and economic integration. The estimated elasticities may also be useful for other studies.
  • Publication
    Trade Policy, Green Goods and the Labor Market
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-17) Coulibaly, Souleymane; Montfaucon, Angella Faith; Nigatu, Natnael Simachew; Seri-Atsebi, Regina
    Green goods trade will matter for the transition to a low-carbon global economy as well as for its adaptive capacity to climate events. This study explores green goods trade and related trade policies in the Philippines and its relationship with the labor markets. The paper finds that the country’s green goods trade is limited due to certain costly non-tariff measures affecting energy transition and other types of green goods. Of about 90 measures, five are identified as reform candidates. Reforming these could enhance green goods trade, as there is a positive correlation between imports and exports of green goods. However, increased exports could reduce the number of high-skilled workers, while imports might increase the shares of female workers within industries. Green goods imports also correlate with higher earnings across industries. The study suggests that trade policy reforms may lead to labor shifts, necessitating complementary policies for affected workers when making trade policies more climate-friendly.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Indonesia Economic Prospects, June 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-24) World Bank
    At 5.1 percent in Q1-2024, GDP growth remains resilient surpassing the middle-income countries’ average. Robust private consumption accounted for 57 percent of GDP growth. This reflects consumer confidence supported by softening inflation in nonfood products, the hike in civil servant wages, and robust performance in consumer services. Public consumption rebounded in Q1-24 driven by election related and social spending. This rebound outweighs the negative contribution to growth of net exports as weak global demand and commodities price volatility have dampened exports earnings.
  • Publication
    Business Ready 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03) World Bank
    Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16) World Bank
    Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.
  • Publication
    Indonesia Economic Prospects, December 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-19) World Bank
    Indonesia’s economy remains resilient, buoyed by strong domestic demand and a recovering service sector. The current account deficit widened, driven by moderating terms of trade and cyclical factors that intensified services and income outflows. After two years of consolidation, the fiscal policy stance loosened slightly. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia (BI) has been incrementally easing its policy stance while managing currency stability. Indonesia needs to significantly increase tax revenues to investment in human and physical capital to achieve its high-income status ambitions. The country’s public capital stock lag regional and structural peers, falling far short of advanced economies. Closing these gaps could enhance productivity growth and support the sustained 6 percent growth required to reach high-income status by 2045. However, the investment needed is substantial. A significant portion of this must be financed through increased tax revenues, as a substantial rise in debt would be risky and would violate statutory caps on deficit and debt levels. Overall, increasing tax revenues will require reforms that widen the tax base, improve tax administration, and address structural constraints to compliance. Reforms to widen the tax base could lower the registration threshold for VAT to align with middle-income country norms, which also applies to the temporary final tax for MSMEs. Meanwhile, a permanent final tax regime could be introduced for MSMEs below the threshold. Special CIT treatments, such as for construction services, publicly listed firms, and non-standard VAT exemptions, may be phased out gradually. Tax incentives need to become more strategic, time-bound, and systematically reviewed. Improving compliance requires better risk management, using high-quality third-party data and integrating fragmented government systems. Simplifying and clarifying VAT regulations can reduce disputes and administrative burdens. Lastly, addressing structural constraints involves deepening financial sector depth, which is expected to have the secondary effect of facilitating compliance through improved information and formalization.
  • Publication
    Indonesia Country Climate and Development Report
    (World Bank, Washington DC, 2023-04-28) World Bank Group
    Climate challenges in Indonesia are intertwined with the country’s growth and development trajectories. Indonesia’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) takes a historical look at climate and development challenges in Indonesia to: (i) present a baseline for the future low-carbon and climate-resilient journey; and (ii) develop a framework to illustrate climate-growth dynamics. The framework is centered around Indonesia’s abundant supply of carbon-intensive natural resources-land and energy-matched by high demand for those resources in parts of the economy that drive growth-agriculture, urban expansion, industry, transportation, and trade. The resulting emissions have direct and indirect costs. They erode climate resilience and increase costs from climate shocks. Rising carbon content in the economy also imposes sunk costs for the low-carbon transition. Although these challenges are known, and efforts are being made to tackle them, the framework aims to link these economy-wide issues to the ongoing and future reforms that are discussed in the CCDR.