Publication: Tobacco Taxation Incidence: Evidence From Russia
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2018-10
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2018-10-30
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The results in this report for the Russian Federation support the use of tobacco taxation as an effective means to reduce tobacco consumption, raise government revenues, increase public health and promote income equality.
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“Fuchs, Alan; Matytsin, Mikhail; Obukhova, Olga. 2018. Tobacco Taxation Incidence: Evidence From Russia. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30619 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Tobacco Taxation Incidence(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10)Despite the well-known positive effects of tobacco taxes on health outcomes, policy makers avoid relying on such taxes because of their possible regressive impact. Using an extended cost-benefit analysis to estimate the distributional effect of cigarettes in the Russian Federation, this paper finds that the long-run impact may in fact be progressive. The methodology applied incorporates the negative price effect caused by an increase in tobacco taxes, combined with a presumed future reduction in medical expenditures and a rise in working years caused by a reduction in the rate of smoking among the population. The analysis includes estimates of the distributional impacts of price rises on cigarettes under various scenarios, based on information taken from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey -- Higher School of Economics for 2010–16. One contribution is the quantification of impacts by allowing price elasticities to vary across consumption deciles. Overall, cigarette taxes exert a positive long-term effect on household incomes, although the magnitude depends on the structure of the conditional price elasticity. If the population is more responsive to tobacco price changes, then it would experience greater gains from the health and extended work-life benefits.Publication The Distributional Effects of Tobacco Taxation(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-06-25)Despite the well-known positive impact of tobacco taxes on health outcomes, policy makers hesitate to use them because of their possible regressive effect, that is, poorer deciles are proportionally more negatively affected than richer ones. Using an extended cost-benefit analysis to estimate the distributional effect of white and clove cigarettes in Indonesia, this study finds that the long-run impact may be progressive. The final aggregate effect incorporates the negative price effect, but also changes in medical expenditures and in additional working years. The analysis includes estimates of the distributional impacts of price rises on cigarettes under various scenarios using 2015–16 Indonesia National Socioeconomic Surveys. One contribution is to quantify the impacts by allowing price elasticity's to vary across consumption deciles. Overall, clove cigarette taxes exert an effect that depends on the assumptions of conditional price elasticity. If the population is more responsive to tobacco price changes, then people would experience even more gains from the health and work benefits. More research is needed to clarify the distributional effects of tobacco taxation in Indonesia.Publication The Distributional Effects of Tobacco Taxation(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-08)Despite the well-known positive impact of tobacco taxes on health outcomes, policy makers hesitate to use them because of their possible regressive effect, that is, poorer deciles are proportionally more negatively affected than richer ones. Using an extended cost-benefit analysis to estimate the distributional effect of white and clove cigarettes in Indonesia, this study finds that the long-run impact may be progressive. The final aggregate effect incorporates the negative price effect, but also changes in medical expenditures and additional working years. The analysis includes estimates of the distributional impacts of price rises on cigarettes under various scenarios using 2015–16 Indonesia National Socioeconomic Surveys. One contribution is to quantify the impacts by allowing price elasticities to vary across consumption deciles. Overall, clove cigarette taxes exert an effect that depends on the assumptions of conditional price elasticity. If the population is more responsive to tobacco price changes, then people would experience even more gains from the health and work benefits. More research is needed to clarify the distributional effects of tobacco taxation in Indonesia.Publication Is Tobacco Taxation Regressive? Evidence on Public Health, Domestic Resource Mobilization, and Equity Improvements(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-04-01)Tobacco taxes are recognized as an effective policy tool to reduce tobacco consumption and improve health outcomes; however, policy makers often hesitate to use them because of their possible regressive effects. This report assesses the ability of taxes on tobacco to improve future health and welfare outcomes, with a focus on their distributional impact and effects on the poor. In addition to adverse consequences on health and quality of life of smokers and their family members, tobacco-related illnesses cost billions of dollars in medical expenditures and losses in human capital and productivity, imposing heavy economic tolls on households and governments. Developing countries bear a high and increasing share of the economic burden of tobacco. However, traditional analyses often overlook the many economic benefits of reducing tobacco consumption. This report presents empirical findings using an extended cost benefit analysis (ECBA) methodology, to incorporate a more comprehensive view of the costs and benefits of increasing prices of tobacco on household welfare, and to assess their distributional impact by accounting for different consumer behaviors across income groups. 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However, policy makers often hesitate to use them because of the perception that poorer households are affected disproportionally more than richer households. This study compares the simulated distributional effects of tobacco tax increases in eight low- and middle-income countries. It applies a standardized extended cost-benefit analysis methodology and relies on comparable data sources across countries. The net effect of raising taxes on cigarettes encompasses the direct negative price shock to household budgets and the long-term benefits of improved health outcomes. The distributional incidence is assessed by estimating decile-specific behavioral responses and relative income gains. The comparative results do not support the claim that tobacco taxes are necessarily regressive. Although welfare losses from the first-order price shock disproportionally affect the poor, these negative shocks are attenuated by greater price-responsiveness among lower-income groups and further offset by higher long-term relative gains through reduced medical expenditures and additional years of productive life as taxes dissuade smoking. In several countries, increasing the price of cigarettes is pro-poor and welfare improving for a large share of the population. Along with raising taxes, policy should aim at encouraging responsiveness to price changes and target tobacco-related medical expenses that disproportionally burden the poor.
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