Publication: Africa's Growth Turnaround: From Fewer Mistakes to Sustained Growth
Date
2009
ISSN
Published
2009
Author(s)
Page, John
Abstract
After stagnating for much of its
postcolonial history, economic performance in Sub?Saharan
Africa has markedly improved. Since 1995, average economic
growth has been close to 5 percent per year. Has Africa
finally turned the corner? This paper analyzes growth
accelerations and decelerations-that is, country level
deviations from long?run trend growth. Seen from this
perspective, Africa's record of slow and volatile
growth reflects a pattern of offsetting accelerations and
declines, and much of the improvement in economic
performance in Africa post 1995 turns out to be due to a
substantial reduction in the frequency and severity of
growth decelerations. The fall in economic declines since
1995 is largely due to better macroeconomic policies, but
changes in such 'growth determinants' as
investment, export diversification, and productivity have
not accompanied the growth boom. Lack of change in these
variables and the significant role played by natural
resources in sparking growth accelerations suggest that
Africa's growth recovery was fragile, even before the
recent global economic crisis. The paper concludes by
setting out four elements of a strategy that can help move
Africa from fewer mistakes to sustained growth: managing
natural resources better, pushing nontraditional exports,
building the African private sector, and creating new skills.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Page, John. 2009. Africa's Growth Turnaround: From Fewer Mistakes to Sustained Growth. Commission on Growth and Development Working Paper;No. 54. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27998 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”