Publication: Kurdistan Region of Iraq : Economic and Social Impact Assessment of the Syrian Conflict and the ISIS Crisis
Loading...
Date
2015-02
ISSN
Published
2015-02
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The development objective of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) economic and social impact assessment is to provide the Iraqi Government with an impact analysis of the current crisis at the regional level. This will provide a foundation for international efforts to assist the KRG in its efforts to rally humanitarian support. The events which motivate this study include: the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011; and the insurgency of the ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria) group, which began in June 2014. The violence and atrocities associated with each of these two events caused tens of thousands to flee their homes and many chose the relative safety of Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), as refugees from the Syrian conflict and as internally displaced persons (IDPs) from the ISIS crisis. These events took place in the context of the fiscal crisis, which caused about a 90 percent drop in fiscal transfers from the central government in Baghdad starting in early 2014. This report provides the government with a technical assessment of the impact and stabilization costs associated with the influx of refugees and IDPs. Impact refers to the immediate economic and fiscal effects on the KRG economy and budget, while stabilization cost refers to the additional spending that will be needed to restore the welfare of residents of the KRI. The report is the outcome of a process in which a World Bank team engaged intensively on the ground with regional government institutions and international partners to gather and mobilize data from disparate sources into a structured narrative and integrated technical presentation from which all stakeholders can draw to help them design and implement strategies for coping with the crisis.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2015. Kurdistan Region of Iraq : Economic and Social Impact Assessment of the Syrian Conflict and the ISIS Crisis. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21597 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Kyrgyz Republic Public Expenditure Review Policy Notes : Strategic Setting(Washington, DC, 2014-05)The current approach to fiscal policy is delivering suboptimal outcomes for the citizens of the Kyrgyz Republic. The past five years have been difficult for the Kyrgyz Republic, with one shock following another. Government spending ballooned to 39 percent of GDP in 2012 one of the highest ratios among developing countries globally, as the authorities tried to mitigate the shocks. However, despite increases in spending, the quality of health services remains poor; above 80 percent of 15 year-olds are classified as illiterate; wages in the public sector are low; and only 6 percent of social assistance reaches the poorest members of society. In addition, risks are mounting in the pension system, few instruments exist to support the vulnerable and the physical capital stock is depreciating, especially in the energy sector. This Public Expenditure Review (PER) focuses on the effectiveness, level, and composition of public spending in number of sectors. The objective of this synthesis note is to better understand the overall environment for fiscal policy as well as the nature and composition of public revenues and expenditures. The sectoral policy notes review the challenges and options in specific sectors, namely, education, health, pensions, social protection, and energy as well as cross-cutting themes such as the wage-bill and public investment management and intergovernmental relations. While more detailed sector-specific recommendations are contained in the sectoral policy notes, more general recommendations on fiscal policy will also contribute to sustainable fiscal consolidation.Publication Tajikistan - Second Programmatic Public Expenditure Review : Volume 2. Technical Background Papers(Washington, DC, 2008-06)This report, Second Programmatic Public Expenditure Review (PPER 2), is a sequel to PPER, which was published in July 2007. PPER 2 provides a detailed analysis of key public expenditure issues in Tajikistan and reports on the nonlending policy dialogue and technical assistance programs managed and coordinated by the World Bank. PPER 2 has a special focus on social sectors, especially the health and education sectors. Public Expenditure Tracking Surveys (PETS) carried out for the first time in Tajikistan in 2007 contributed to the findings in this report. The report also updates the macroeconomic and fiscal situation to take account of important developments in 2007 and analyzes the implications of energy sector reforms and investments for fiscal sustainability. This report is intended to contribute to improving the quality of life in Tajikistan through a comprehensive reform program. It spells out the macroeconomic, energy, and budget reforms necessary to achieve the growth the country seeks and, at the same time (and frequently via the same measures) the social welfare targets of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).Publication Albania Public Finance Review : Part 1. Toward a Sustainable Fiscal Policy for Growth(Washington, DC, 2014-01)Albania's rapid growth in the decade up to the 2008 global financial crisis propelled it to middle-income status and helped to reduce poverty. The global financial crisis in 2008 slammed the brakes on Albania's largely domestic-demand-driven growth. The government has accumulated sizable arrears in payments for public works and value-added tax (VAT) refunds. In a baseline scenario of no policy reforms, Albania's public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio is projected to reach 73.5 percent in 2015 and stay above 72 percent over the medium term. Empirical evidence confirms that high public debt depresses economic activity and significantly increases the probability of default. This report examines closely the opportunities for fiscal consolidation on both the revenue and expenditure sides. Combined effect of structural reforms will reduce Albania's public debt to GDP ratio significantly over the medium term. It can in parallel rebalance its capital spending, particularly in transport, toward maintenance to support growth. Albania needs to strengthen its institutions to reinforce financial discipline and strengthen fiscal policy. Institutional reforms are particularly needed with regard to public financial management (PFM) and introducing a fiscal rule to anchor policy over the medium term.Publication FYR Macedonia Public Expenditure Review(Washington, DC, 2008-02)Progress in advancing political and economic reforms has been substantial this decade. The authorities have moved with determination in implementing the Framework Agreement for Peace (the Ohrid Agreement) that ended the 2001 hostilities, including enhancing the representation of minorities in governmental structures. This, together with economic reforms and the implementation of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the European Union (EU), led the European Council to grant FYR Macedonia the status of a candidate country in December 2005. In 2003, the Government introduced a stabilization program focused on tighter fiscal policy and supported by the continuation of the de facto pegging of the exchange rate against the euro. The budget deficit was virtually eliminated in the first year of the program and in the subsequent years spending has been sharply reduced as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The fiscal adjustment helped improve financial stability and placed public debt ratios on a steadily declining path, with government debt amounting to about 30 percent of GDP at the end of 2006. The balance of payments has improved since 2003, and especially since 2005. In fact, FYR Macedonia has the smallest current account deficit in the region equivalent to 0.4 percent of GDP. A key challenge for the new Government is to adopt policies that will facilitate formalization of economic activity, including employment. In this context, the authorities are urged to explore options to reduce social security contribution rates, starting with the elimination of the minimum contribution threshold which represents an enormous disincentive for formal sector employment for low-wage and part-time workers.Publication Latvia - From Exuberance to Prudence : A Public Expenditure Review of Government Administration and the Social Sectors - Analytical Report(World Bank, 2010-09-27)This public expenditure review (PER) was conducted at the request of the Ministry of Finance (MoF) on behalf of the Government of the Republic of Latvia. The objective of the PER is to identify potential areas of further budget savings in public administration and the social sectors that could help restore fiscal balance, speed Latvia's recovery from the current crisis, and help it to meet the Maastricht Criteria by 2012 so it can adopt the Euro in 2014. The remainder of this volume is structured in the following way. Section two recounts the events and circumstances that set the Government's fiscal stance in the years prior to the crisis. Section three summarizes the principal emergency measures the Government took to cope during 2008 and 2009 as the crisis broke and led to Latvia's severe economic contraction. The purpose of these sections which draw liberally from material prepared by the financial authorities, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central (EC) is to make the case for further fiscal adjustment plain. The report then summarizes the main messages and highlights the most important suggestions made in each of the longer, more detailed chapters of volume two of the review. Each section is followed by a matrix of the options presented for the Government to take into consideration. Given the important role that municipalities and republican cities play in the delivery of social services, the chapter three of volume two provides an in depth examination of local government finances and spending. Local authorities (municipalities and republican cities) play such a prominent role in the delivery of public services particularly social services that a close look at the character of their spending is critical.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication Doing Business 2020(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020)Doing Business 2020 is the 17th in a series of annual studies investigating the regulations that enhance business activity and those that constrain it. It provides quantitative indicators covering 12 areas of the business environment in 190 economies. The goal of the Doing Business series is to provide objective data for use by governments in designing sound business regulatory policies and to encourage research on the important dimensions of the regulatory environment for firms.Publication A Blue Transformation for Pacific Maritime Transport: Overarching Regional Transport(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-06-29)This report has eight chapters. Following the introduction (Pacific Peoples and the Sea), the next six chapters each focus on a separate significant component of Pacific maritime transport, analyzing the major influences and challenges, and, where relevant, key areas for future attention. The topics are: international shipping, gateway ports, domestic maritime transport, four related sectors, cruise ship tourism, tuna fisheries, fossil fuel imports, and bulk shipping, natural disasters and climate resilience, and sector governance and institutions. The final chapter, transforming pacific maritime transport, ways forward, distils the report’s findings into the most significant and far-reaching opportunities to transform maritime transport in the Pacific. These are grouped into three broad themes, infrastructure, services, and governance and capacity building. Ways Forward comes at the end and, for readers unable to view the whole report, is a good place to begin. The rest of this executive summary explains why the Pacific is a special case for investment and provides a summary of the main chapters and findings. But first, it describes which Pacific Island countries contributed to the study.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.Publication Collapse and Recovery(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023)Worldwide, the COVID-19 pandemic has been an enormous shock to mortality, economies, and daily life. But what has received insufficient attention is the impact of the pandemic on the accumulation of human capital—the health, education, and skills—of young people. How large was the setback, and how far are we still from a recovery? Collapse and Recovery estimates the impacts of the pandemic on the human capital of young children, school-age children, and youth and discusses the urgent actions needed to reverse the damage. It shows that there was a collapse of human capital and that, unless that collapse is remedied, it is a time bomb for countries. Specifically, the report documents alarming declines in cognitive and social-emotional development among young children, which could translate into a 25 percent reduction in their earnings as adults. It finds that 1 billion children in low- and middle-income countries missed at least one year of in-person schooling. And despite enormous efforts in remote learning, children did not learn during the unprecedentedly long school closures, which could reduce future lifetime earnings around the world by US$21 trillion. The report quantifies the dramatic drops in employment and skills among youth that resulted from the pandemic as well as the substantial increase in the number of youth neither employed nor enrolled in education or training. In all of these age groups, the impacts of the pandemic were consistently worse for children from poorer backgrounds. These losses call for immediate action. The good news is that evidence-based policies can recover these losses. Collapse and Recovery reviews governments’ responses to the pandemic, assessing why there was a collapse in human capital accumulation, what was missing in the policy architecture to protect human capital during the crisis, and how governments can better prepare to withstand future shocks. It offers concrete policy recommendations to recover losses in human capital—programs that will end up paying for themselves in the long term. To better prepare for future shocks such as climate change and wars, the report emphasizes the need for solutions that bring health, education, and social protection programs together in an integrated human development system. If countries fail to act, the losses in human capital documented in this report will become permanent and last for multiple generations. The time to act is now.