Publication:
The Determinants of Rising Informality in Brazil : Evidence from Gross Worker Flows

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (1.02 MB)
580 downloads
English Text (434.76 KB)
166 downloads
Date
2007-10
ISSN
Published
2007-10
Author(s)
Bosch, Mariano
Goni, Edwin
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper studies gross worker flows to explain the rising informality in Brazilian metropolitan labor markets from 1983 to 2002. This period covers two economic cycles, several stabilization plans, a far-reaching trade liberalization, and changes in labor legislation through the Constitutional reform of 1988. First, focusing on cyclical patterns, the authors confirm that for Brazil, the patterns of worker transitions between formality and informality correspond primarily to the job-to-job dynamics observed in the United States, and not to the traditional idea of the informal queuing for jobs in a segmented market. However, the analysis also confirms distinct cyclical patterns of job finding and separation rates that lead to the informal sector absorbing more labor during downturns. Second, focusing on secular movements in gross flows and the volatility of flows, the paper finds the rise in informality to be driven primarily by a reduction in job finding rates in the formal sector. A small fraction of this is driven by trade liberalization, and the remainder seems driven by rising labor costs and reduced flexibility arising from Constitutional reform.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Bosch, Mariano; Goni, Edwin; Maloney, William. 2007. The Determinants of Rising Informality in Brazil : Evidence from Gross Worker Flows. Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4375. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7365 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    The Future of Poverty
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-15) Fajardo-Gonzalez, Johanna; Nguyen, Minh C.; Corral, Paul
    Climate change is increasingly acknowledged as a critical issue with far-reaching socioeconomic implications that extend well beyond environmental concerns. Among the most pressing challenges is its impact on global poverty. This paper projects the potential impacts of unmitigated climate change on global poverty rates between 2023 and 2050. Building on a study that provided a detailed analysis of how temperature changes affect economic productivity, this paper integrates those findings with binned data from 217 countries, sourced from the World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Platform. By simulating poverty rates and the number of poor under two climate change scenarios, the paper uncovers some alarming trends. One of the primary findings is that the number of people living in extreme poverty worldwide could be nearly doubled due to climate change. In all scenarios, Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to bear the brunt, contributing the largest number of poor people, with estimates ranging between 40.5 million and 73.5 million by 2050. Another significant finding is the disproportionate impact of inequality on poverty. Even small increases in inequality can lead to substantial rises in poverty levels. For instance, if every country’s Gini coefficient increases by just 1 percent between 2022 and 2050, an additional 8.8 million people could be pushed below the international poverty line by 2050. In a more extreme scenario, where every country’s Gini coefficient increases by 10 percent between 2022 and 2050, the number of people falling into poverty could rise by an additional 148.8 million relative to the baseline scenario. These findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive climate policies that not only mitigate environmental impacts but also address socioeconomic vulnerabilities.
  • Publication
    Exports, Labor Markets, and the Environment
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-14) Góes, Carlos; Conceição, Otavio; Lara Ibarra, Gabriel; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys
    What is the environmental impact of exports? Focusing on 2000–20, this paper combines customs, administrative, and census microdata to estimate employment elasticities with respect to exports. The findings show that municipalities that faced increased exports experienced faster growth in formal employment. The elasticities were 0.25 on impact, peaked at 0.4, and remained positive and significant even 10 years after the shock, pointing to a long and protracted labor market adjustment. In the long run, informal employment responds negatively to export shocks. Using a granular taxonomy for economic activities based on their environmental impact, the paper documents that environmentally risky activities have a larger share of employment than environmentally sustainable ones, and that the relationship between these activities and exports is nuanced. Over the short run, environmentally risky employment responds more strongly to exports relative to environmentally sustainable employment. However, over the long run, this pattern reverses, as the impact of exports on environmentally sustainable employment is more persistent.
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    The Asymmetric Bank Distress Amplifier of Recessions
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-11) Kim, Dohan
    One defining feature of financial crises, evident in U.S. and international data, is asymmetric bank distress—concentrated losses on a subset of banks. This paper proposes a model in which shocks to borrowers’ productivity dispersion lead to asymmetric bank losses. The framework exhibits a “bank distress amplifier,” exacerbating economic downturns by causing costly bank failures and raising uncertainty about the solvency of banks, thereby pushing banks to deleverage. Quantitative analysis shows that the bank distress amplifier doubles investment decline and increases the spread by 2.5 times during the Great Recession compared to a standard financial accelerator model. The mechanism helps explain how a seemingly small shock can sometimes trigger a large crisis.
  • Publication
    Impact of Heat Waves on Learning Outcomes and the Role of Conditional Cash Transfers
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-14) Miranda, Juan José; Contreras, Cesar
    This paper evaluates the impact of higher temperatures on learning outcomes in Peru. The results suggest that 1 degree above 20°C is equivalent to 7 and 6 percent of a standard deviation of what a student learns in a year for math and reading tests, respectively. These results hold true when the main specification is changed, splitting the sample, collapsing the data at school level, and using other climate specifications. The paper aims to improve understanding of how to deal with the impacts of climate change on learning outcomes in developing countries. The evidence suggests that conditional cash transfer programs can mitigate the negative effects of higher temperatures on students’ learning outcomes in math and reading.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Cyclical Movements in Unemployment and Informality in Developing Countries
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-06) Bosch, Mariano; Maloney, William
    This paper analyzes the cyclical properties of worker flows in Brazil and Mexico, two important developing countries with large unregulated or informal sectors. It generates three stylized facts that are critical to the accurate modeling of the sector and which suggest the need to rethink the approaches to date. First, the unemployment rate is countercyclical essentially because job separations of informal workers increase dramatically in recessions. Second, the share of formal employment is countercyclical because of the difficulty of finding formal jobs from inactivity, unemployment and other informal jobs during recessions rather than because of increased separation from formal jobs. Third, flows from formality into informality are not countercyclical, but, if anything, pro-cyclical. Together, these challenge the conventional wisdom that has guided the modeling the sector that informal workers are primarily those rationed out of the formal labor market. They also offer a new synthesis of the mechanics of the cyclical adjustment process. Finally, the paper offers estimates of the moments of worker flows series that are needed for calibration.
  • Publication
    Informal Employment in Argentina : Causes and Consequences
    (Washington, DC, 2008-03) World Bank
    This report presents the final results and conclusions of a two-year program developed by a World Bank team in Argentina, to analyze the determinants of informality and its impact on poverty and equity. Informality in the labor market has become a central concern for policy makers and the society at large in Argentina. The long upward trend in informal employment until recent year has been viewed as a deterioration in working conditions that is behind the sustained rise in poverty and inequality in the last quarter of the twentieth century. While some of the possible causes for the rise in informality have been studied, their relative importance remains unclear and its links with poverty and inequality have not been examined in detail. A primary objective of the program is to deepen the shared work with the Argentine government and civil society on socio-economic development and equity issues. The aim has been to analyze and propose policy options for the labor market that respond to the Government's priorities, are technically sound, and provide an open menu for discussion. The study of informality in the labor market is not an empty field in Argentina. Many local analysts have studied its causes and consequences, and this report built on this work. A key aspect of the program was to draw on the extensive local analytical studies on the issues and sustain an active interaction with government counterparts and civil society through technical workshops, meetings and other outreach efforts. This report focused on discussing the evolution, determinants, and policy options to reduce labor informality in Argentina and its impacts. By developing a common base of diagnoses with the government, the program set a path for further discussions and collaborations. Following this process, the Ministry of Labor has already asked the Bank to collaborate on a new program that will focus on labor markets, social protection, and income distribution, looking for policies that would result in better and more effective policies to increase equity in Argentina.
  • Publication
    Labor Market Policies under a Youth Bulge : How to Benefit from Demographic Dividend in Pakistan
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-12) Cho, Yoonyoung; Robalino, David
    This paper assesses labor market trends and outcomes in Pakistan over the past decade. It shows that despite a high rate of employment growth, labor market outcomes have been disappointing: most jobs have been created in low productivity sectors/activities, and even if they provide a minimum level of income to often avoid poverty, they remain low quality jobs providing little or no protection to workers against shocks. In addition, female participation rates for women are very low and there are large income disparities between rural and urban areas, and across sectors. A fundamental part of the problem is the low level of education of the labor force. Pakistan is currently in the midst of a demographic transition that is bringing a growing number of youth into the labor market. This youth bulge that is unwinding opens both challenges and opportunities. Challenges because of the need to create enough jobs to employ new entrants; Opportunities, because if this is done the country will enjoy a demographic dividend , as the share of those employed relative to the dependent increases, driving up income per capita and standards of living.
  • Publication
    Social Security Distortions onto the Labor Market : Estimates for Colombia
    (2010-07-01) Cuesta, Jose; Olivera, Mauricio
    This paper identifies and quantifies three distortions caused by the existing social security and social assistance systems in Colombia. These distortions refer to the discrepancy between the cost of formal social security for the employer and the worker's valuation of the received service (social distortion): the differences in social security benefits received by salaried and self-employed formal workers (occupational distortion); and the discrepancy caused by the cost in employing a formal instead of an informal worker (informal distortion). Based on recently collected information concerning Colombian workers' willingness to pay for several packages of social security benefits, the study calculates that social distortions range from 2 to 27 percent of the workers' labor earnings; the occupational distortion amounts to 50 percent of formal salaried workers' earnings; and the informal distortions represent between 45 and 56 percent of formal workers' labor income. Results indicate that valuations of the contributive and noncontributive protection systems play a key role in explaining these distortions. In addition, the Colombian social protection system thereby places a hefty tax on the formal worker (and employer) while transferring resources to the informal worker, but these distortions are not sufficient to revert differentials in earnings among formal and informal workers.
  • Publication
    The Fall of Wage Flexibility
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-09-15) Maloney, W.F.; Lederman, D.; Messina, J.
    This study explores how labor markets have adjusted to temporary business cycle fluctuations since (at least) the 1990s. It focuses on how changes in macroeconomic conditions affect the evolving nature of labor-market adjustments on the other hand. The study pays particular attention to the role of low inflation and international trade in shaping labor-market adjustment. The main focus of the report is on employment, wages and informality. The report analyzes how they are affected by business cycles, and on how low inflation and the nature of external shocks affects labor market dynamics. It is organized as follows. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the cyclical macroeconomic behavior of wages in four LAC countries. Importantly, rather than examining the average cyclical pattern of wages, it focuses on the time varying patterns in the relationship between wages, employment and output. The second part of Chapter 2 studies downward wage rigidities with sectoral data. Chapter 3 moves from wages to quantitative labor-market adjustments and attempts to the answer what limits the expansion of formal employment in LAC? The chapter studies differences, similarities and linkages between formal and informal employment over the business cycle to understand the frustrating persistence of informal employment in the region. Chapter 4 takes a close look at the adjustment of formal labor markets in Northern Mexico during the United States recession of 2008-09. Chapter 5 turns our attention to the distributional costs of recessions by examining how returns to schooling fluctuate with the business cycle, and how they respond to different types of economic shocks. Chapter 6 concludes with a brief summary of the findings and some thoughts about policy implications.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    The Mexican Social Protection System in Health
    (World Bank, Washington DC, 2013-01) Bonilla-Chacín, M.E.; Aguilera, Nelly
    With a population of 113 million and a per-capita Gross Domestic Product, or GDP of US$10,064 (current U.S. dollars), Mexico is one of the largest and highest-income countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The country has benefited from sustained economic growth during the last decade, which was temporarily interrupted by the financial and economic crisis. Real GDP is projected to grow 3.8 percent and 3.6 percent in 2012 and 2013, respectively (International Monetary Fund, or IMF 2012). Despite this growth, poverty in the country remains high; with half of the population living below the national poverty line. The country is also highly heterogeneous, with large socioeconomic differences across states and across urban and rural areas. In 2010, while the extreme poverty ratio in the Federal District and the states of Colima and Nuevo Leon was below 3 percent, in Chiapas, Guerrero, and Oaxaca it was 25 percent or higher. These large regional differences are also found in other indicators of well-being, such as years of schooling, housing conditions, and access to social services. This case study assesses key features and achievements of the Social Protection System in Health (Sistema de Proteccion Social en Salud) in Mexico, and particularly of its main pillar, Popular Health Insurance (Seguro Popular, PHI). It analyzes the contribution of this policy to the establishment and implementation of universal health coverage in Mexico. In 2003, with the reform of the General Health Law, the PHI was institutionalized as a subsidized health insurance scheme open to the population not covered by the social security schemes. Today, the PHI covers all of its intended affiliates, about 52 million people
  • Publication
    Argentina Country Climate and Development Report
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11) World Bank Group
    The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.
  • Publication
    Guide to the Debt Management Performance Assessment Tool
    (Washington, DC, 2008-02-05) World Bank
    The purpose of this document is to provide guidance and supplemental information to assist with country assessments of debt management performance, using the Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) tool. The DeMPA is a methodology used for assessing public debt management performance through a comprehensive set of 15 performance indicators spanning the full range of government Debt Management (DeM) functions. It is based on the principles set out in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank guidelines for public debt management, initially published in 2001 and updated in 2003. It is modeled after the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) framework for performance measurement of public financial management. The DeMPA has been designed to be a user-friendly tool to undertake an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses in government DeM practices. This guide provides additional background and supporting information so that a no specialist in the area of debt management may undertake a country assessment effectively. The guide can be used by assessors in preparing for and undertaking an assessment. It is particularly useful for understanding the rationale for the inclusion of the indicators, the scoring methodology, and the list of supporting documents or evidence required, and the questions that could be asked for the assessment.
  • Publication
    Crime and Violence in Central America : A Development Challenge - Main Report
    (World Bank, 2011-01-01) World Bank
    Crime and violence are now a key development issue for Central American countries. In three nations El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras crime rates are among the top five in Latin America. This report argues that successful strategies require actions along multiple fronts, combining prevention and criminal justice reform, together with regional approaches in the areas of drug trafficking and firearms. It also argues that interventions should be evidence based, starting with a clear understanding of the risk factors involved and ending with a careful evaluation of how any planned action might affect future options. In addition, the design of national crime reduction plans and the establishment of national cross-sectoral crime commissions are important steps to coordinate the actions of different government branches, ease cross-sectoral collaboration and prioritize resource allocation. Of equal importance is the fact that national plans offer a vehicle for the involvement of civil society organizations, in which much of the expertise in violence prevention and rehabilitation resides. Prevention efforts need to be complemented by effective law enforcement. The required reforms are no longer primarily legislative in nature because all six countries have advanced toward more transparent adversarial criminal procedures. The second-generation reforms should instead help deliver on the promises of previous reforms by: (i) strengthening key institutions and improving the quality and timeliness of the services they provide to citizens; (ii) improving efficiency and effectiveness while respecting due process and human rights; (iii) ensuring accountability and addressing corruption; (iv) increasing inter-agency collaboration; and (v) improving access to justice, especially for poor and disenfranchised groups. Specific interventions reviewed in the report include: information systems and performance indicators as a prerequisite to improve inter-institutional coordination and information sharing mechanisms; an internal overhaul of court administration and case management to create rapid reaction, one-stop shops; the strengthening of entities that provide legal counseling to the poor and to women; and the promotion of alternative dispute-resolution mechanisms and the implementation of community policing programs.
  • Publication
    Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Luna-Bazaldua, Diego; Levin, Victoria; Liberman, Julia; Gala, Priyal Mukesh
    This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.