Publication: Beyond Oaxaca-Blinder: Accounting for Differences in Household Income Distributions
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Date
2008
ISSN
15691721
Published
2008
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This paper develops a method to decompose differences across distributions of household income, based on counterfactual distributions that 'lie between' the actually observed distributions. Our approach decomposes differences between any two income distributions (or functionals such as inequality or poverty measures) into shares due to price effects; occupational structure effects; and endowment effects. Comparing the household income distributions of the USA and Brazil in 1999, we find that most of Brazil's excess inequality (of 13 Gini points) is accounted for by underlying inequalities in the distributions of education and of non-labor income, notably pensions (between four and six Gini points each). Steeper returns to education in Brazil also make an important contribution (of two to five points). Differences in occupational structure and in racial and demographic composition are much less important.
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Publication Beyond Oaxaca-Blinder: Accounting for Differences in Household Income Distributions Across Countries(World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2002-04-30)The authors develop a microeconometric method to account for differences across distributions of household income. Going beyond the determination of earnings in labor markets, they also estimate statistical models for occupational choice and for conditional distributions of education, fertility, and nonlabor incomes. The authors import combinations of estimated parameters from these models to simulate counterfactual income distributions. This allows them to decompose differences between functionals of two income distributions (such as inequality or poverty measures) into shares because of differences in the structure of labor market returns (price effects), differences in the occupational structure, and differences in the underlying distribution of assets (endowment effects). The authors apply the method to the differences between the Brazilian income distribution and those of Mexico and the United States, and find that most of Brazil's excess income inequality is due to underlying inequalities in the distribution of two key endowments: access to education and to sources of nonlabor income, mainly pensions.Publication Conditional Cash Transfers, Schooling, and Child Labor : Micro-Simulating Brazil's Bolsa Escola Program(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2003-05)A growing number of developing economies are providing cash transfers to poor people that require certain behaviors on their part, such as attending school or regularly visiting health care facilities. A simple ex ante methodology is proposed for evaluating such programs and used to assess the bolsa escola program in Brazil. The results suggest that about 60 percent of poor 10- to 15-year-olds not in school enroll in response to the program. The program reduces the incidence of poverty by only a little more than one percentage point, however, and the Gini coefficient falls just half a point. Results are better for measures more sensitive to the bottom of the distribution, but the effect is never large.Publication Ex-ante Evaluation of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs: The Case of Bolsa Escola(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2002-09)Cash transfers targeted to poor people, but conditional on some behavior on their part, such as school attendance or regular visits to health care facilities, are being adopted in a growing number of developing countries. Even where ex-post impact evaluations have been conducted, a number of policy-relevant counterfactual questions have remained unanswered. These are questions about the potential impact of changes in program design, such as benefit levels or the choice of the means-test, on both the current welfare and the behavioral response of household members. This paper proposes a method to simulate the effects of those alternative program designs on welfare and behavior, based on microeconometrically estimated models of household behavior. In an application to Brazil's recently introduced federal Bolsa Escola program, the authors find a surprisingly strong effect of the conditionality on school attendance, but a muted impact of the transfers on the reduction of current poverty and inequality levelsPublication Can the Distributional Impacts of Macroeconomic Shocks be Predicted? A Comparison of the Performance of Macro-Micro Models with Historical Data for Brazil(World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2004-05)What was the impact of Brazil's 1998-99 currency crisis-which resulted in a change of exchange rate regime and a large real devaluation-on the occupational structure of the labor force and the distribution of incomes? Would it have been possible to predict such effects ahead of the crisis? The authors present an integrated macro-micro model of the Brazilian economy in 1998. The model consists of an applied general equilibrium macroeconometric component, connected through a set of linkage aggregate variables to a microeconomic model of household incomes. The authors use this framework to predict the employment and distributional consequences of the 1999 Brazilian currency crisis, based on 1998 household survey data. They then test the predictive performance of the model by comparing its simulated results with the actual household survey data observed in 1999. In addition to the fully integrated macro-micro model, the authors also test the performances of the microeconometric model on its own, and of a "representative household groups" approach. They find that the integrated macro-micro econometric model, while still inaccurate on many dimensions, can actually predict the broad pattern of the incidence of changes in household incomes across the distribution reasonably well, and much better than the alternative approaches. The authors conclude that further experimentation with these tools might be of considerable potential usefulness to policymakers.Publication Poverty Reduction without Economic Growth? Explaining Brazil's Poverty Dynamics, 1985-2004(2010)Brazil's slow pace of poverty reduction between the mid-1980s and the mid-2000s reflects both low growth and a low growth elasticity of poverty reduction. Using GDP data disaggregated by state and sector for a twenty-year period, this paper finds considerable variation in the poverty-reducing effectiveness of growth--across sectors, across space, and over time. Growth in the services sector was substantially more poverty-reducing than was growth in either agriculture or industry. Growth in industry had different effects on poverty across different states and its impact varied with initial conditions related to human development and worker empowerment. But because there was so little of it, economic growth actually played a relatively small role in accounting for Brazil's poverty reduction between 1985 and 2004. The taming of hyperinflation (in 1994) and a substantial expansion in social security and social assistance transfers, in large part mandated by the 1988 Constitution, accounted for the bulk of the overall reduction in poverty.
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