Publication: World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2015: Staying the Course
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2015-10-05
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2015-09-30
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The East Asia and Pacific Economic Update provides regular, biannual analyses of development trends and economic policy issues across the East Asia and Pacific region
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“World Bank. 2015. World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2015: Staying the Course. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22710 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2012, Volume 2 : Remaining Resilient(Washington, DC, 2012-12)Economies in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region have generally remained resilient in 2012 amidst a lackluster and, at times, volatile external environment. In 2012, the region's economy is projected to grow by 7.5 percent, lower than the 8.3 percent growth recorded in 2011, but set to recover to 7.9 percent in 2013. Growth in EAP is still the highest of any developing region and constitutes almost 40 percent of global growth. With the weakness in global demand for exports, domestic demand has remained the main driver of growth for most economies. In 2012, aside from weak external demand, the region's growth slowdown resulted from China's economic performance, which is projected to reach 7.9 percent in 2012, 1.4 percentage points lower than 2011 and the lowest annual growth rate since 1999. This decline is mainly due to lower domestic demand growth in the first part of 2012, driven by stabilization measures implemented in 2011. East Asia excluding China is expected to grow by 5.6 percent in 2012, one percentage point higher than in 2011. The rebound in economic activity in Thailand following the floods of 2011, strong growth in the Philippines, and relatively mild slowdowns in Indonesia and Vietnam contributed to this increase. Fiscal and monetary policies were generally supporting growth in 2012. More recently, monetary policy rates have rightly been held steady, as most economies now operate at or close to full capacity. For 2013, the authors expect the region to benefit from continued strong domestic demand and a mild global recovery that would nudge the contribution of net exports to growth back into positive territory, a trend projected to continue into 2014. For China, the authors expect this year's monetary easing, local fiscal stimulus and more rapid approval of large investment projects to boost growth to about 8.4 percent. By 2014, China is projected to be growing at around 8 percent, which is in line with the country's potential growth rate. This rate is gradually declining as productivity and labor force growth are tailing off. This edition of the East Asia half-yearly update introduces two new sections one that looks at selected emerging issues in the region, including Myanmar, covered for the first time in this update. The section on the medium term regional development agenda focuses on jobs and disaster risk management.Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2020(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-09-28)COVID-19 has delivered a triple shock to the developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region: the pandemic itself, the economic impact of containment measures, and reverberations from the global recession. Without action on multiple fronts, the pandemic could reduce regional growth over the next decade by 1 percentage point per year, with the greatest impacts being felt by poor households, because of lower levels of access to healthcare, education, jobs, and finance. Why were many economies in the region able to contain the disease while some others still struggle? How have these shocks affected economic activity and poverty in different countries? What are the prospects for recovery and how will longer term growth be affected across the region? Is there a tension between containing the disease and providing relief today and promoting recovery and growth tomorrow? These key questions are addressed in the World Bank’s October 2020 EAP Economic Update.Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2021(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-09-27)The East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region is suffering a reversal of fortune. In 2020, many EAP countries successfully contained COVID-19 and economic activity swiftly revived as other regions struggled with the pandemic and economic recession. Now the region is being hit hard by the COVID-19 Delta variant while many advanced economies are on the path to economic recovery. The disease is damaging the economy and is unlikely to disappear in the foreseeable future. In the near term, the persistence of the pandemic will prolong human and economic distress unless individuals and firms can adapt. In the longer term, COVID-19 will reduce growth and increase inequality unless the scars are remedied and the opportunities grasped. Policy action must help economic agents to adjust today and make choices that avert deceleration and disparity tomorrow.Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2022(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-10)Growth in most countries in the East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) region rebounded in the first half of 2022, but China lost momentum. In much of the region, domestic demand revived after the distress of the COVID-19 Delta wave. In China, the public health measures to contain outbreaks of the highly infectious Omicron variant inhibited consumption. Most of the region is projected to grow faster and have lower inflation in 2022 than other regions. Beyond the end of 2022, three factors could be a drag on growth: global deceleration, rising debt, and policy distortions. Current measures to contain inflation and debt are adding to existing distortions in the markets for food, fuel and finance in ways that could hurt growth. In each case, more efficient measures could address current difficulties without undermining longer-term objectives.Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2010, Volume 2 : Robust Recovery, Rising Risks(World Bank, 2010)Output has recovered to above pre-crisis levels throughout developing East Asia and, in some countries, is expanding at near pre-crisis rates. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is likely to rise 8.9 percent in the region in 2010, up from 7.3 percent in 2009 and in line with the average growth rate during 2000-08. Economic expansion is projected to slow to about 7.8 percent in 2011, as spare capacity becomes scarce, fiscal and monetary stimulus measures are gradually unwound, and economic growth in the advanced economies remains relatively flat. Encouragingly, the private sector is once again becoming the engine of growth, confidence is returning, and trade flows have returned to pre-crisis levels. But the recovery so far has generated little incremental manufacturing employment in some of the middle-income countries. With output gaps closing rapidly and private investment recovering strongly, the authorities in most East Asian countries are unwinding their stimulus measures. Finally, a more consistent application of policy incentives for investment and growth across space is called for, especially recognizing China's unique combination of fiscal decentralization and centralized government structure. Extending preferential policies related to taxation and deregulation further inland, broadening the access to credit, and standardizing basic health and education services across provinces will greatly level the playing field in favor of the inland provinces, improving both equity and growth.
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