Publication:
The Great Recession and the Future of Cities

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (395.71 KB)
517 downloads
English Text (81.45 KB)
124 downloads
Published
2012-11
ISSN
Date
2014-08-29
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper describes the serious fiscal crisis faced by cities around the world following the Great Recession of 2008. Five years later, the after-effects of this major crisis continue to be felt and limit economic opportunities in cities. Section 1 summarizes how the crisis was triggered and how it unfolded in the US, then spread to the rest of world -- highlighting the links between financial sector and housing sector. Section 2 discusses the impact of the crisis on urban revenue and expenditure, and the stimulus programs and recovery plans devised as a short term response by cities around the world. Section 3 then discusses longer term strategies to ensure the financial, social and environmental sustainability of cities. The authors make the point -- and back up our assertions with specific examples -- that urban decision-makers must take a long view and find ways to create opportunities for their citizens, making sure that their decisions are financially sustainable in the long term. Today's decisions should not lock cities out of options tomorrow, and cities must be managed with flexibility so as to adapt to unforeseen new circumstances. The authors also argue that, while there has been a lot of talk about "smart cities" and new technologies among urban specialists and urban planners, it is ultimately the focus on basic economics (sustainable financing, providing good services to consumers and incentives for providers), good governance and good institutions that will create sustainable, dynamic and livable cities.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Dethier, Jean-Jacques; Morrill, Curtis. 2012. The Great Recession and the Future of Cities. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6256. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19882 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10) Farkas, Hannah; Linsenmeier, Manuel; Talevi, Marta; Avner, Paolo; Jafino, Bramka Arga; Sidibe, Moussa
    This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.
  • Publication
    Direct and Indirect Impacts of Transport Mobility on Access to Jobs: Evidence from South Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-12) Iimi, Atsushi
    Access to jobs is essential for economic growth. In Africa, unemployment rates are notably high. This paper reexamines the relationship between transport mobility and labor market outcomes, with a particular focus on the direct and indirect effects of transport connectivity. As predicted by theory, wages are influenced by the level of commuting deterrence. Generally, higher earnings are associated with longer commute times and/or higher commuting costs. Local accessibility is also important, especially for individuals with time constraints. Both direct and indirect impacts are found to be significant in South Africa, where job accessibility has been challenging since the end of apartheid. For the direct impact, the wage elasticity associated with commuting costs is significant. Returns on commute are particularly high for women. Local accessibility to socioeconomic facilities, such as shops and health services, is also found to have a significant impact, consistent with the concept of mobility of care. To enhance employment, therefore, it is crucial to connect people not only to job locations but also to various socioeconomic points of interest, such as markets and hospitals, in an integrated manner. This integration will enable individuals to spend more time working and commuting longer distances.
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    From Policy to Practice: Lessons from the Implementation of the Refugee Work Rights Policy in Ethiopia
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-10) Perez, Ana Maria; Rozo, Sandra V.
    This paper examines the early implementation of Ethiopia’s refugee work rights policy, with a focus on the issuance of permits that enable refugees to engage in economic activities. Building on significant legal and institutional advances under the 2019 Refugee Proclamation and subsequent directives, the analysis explores how these reforms are being operationalized in practice. Using a mixed-methods approach, combining document review, administrative data analysis, and semi-structured interviews, the paper identifies both progress and remaining challenges. Permit issuance has increased since the adoption of detailed operational guidance in 2024, reflecting the Government of Ethiopia’s commitment to operationalizing its progressive legal framework and ensuring that refugees can exercise their right to work. However, take-up remains modest, with about 5.2 percent of the working-age population holding a permit. Preliminary evidence suggests that coordination gaps, limited subnational capacity, low awareness among refugees and employers, and disincentives to formalize in a largely informal labor market are contributing to the low take-up. The paper offers policy suggestions, grounded in the Ethiopian context and emerging evidence, to help translate legal commitments into improved labor market outcomes for refugees.
  • Publication
    Monitoring Global Aid Flows: A Novel Approach Using Large Language Models
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-04) Luo, Xubei; Rajasekaran, Arvind Balaji; Scruggs, Andrew Conner
    Effective monitoring of development aid is the foundation for assessing the alignment of flows with their intended development objectives. Existing reporting systems, such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Creditor Reporting System, provide standardized classification of aid activities but have limitations when it comes to capturing new areas like climate change, digitalization, and other cross-cutting themes. This paper proposes a bottom-up, unsupervised machine learning framework that leverages textual descriptions of aid projects to generate highly granular activity clusters. Using the 2021 Creditor Reporting System data set of nearly 400,000 records, the model produces 841 clusters, which are then grouped into 80 subsectors. These clusters reveal 36 emerging aid areas not tracked in the current Creditor Reporting System taxonomy, allow unpacking of “multi-sectoral” and “sector not specified” classifications, and enable estimation of flows to new themes, including World Bank Global Challenge Programs, International Development Association–20 Special Themes, and Cross-Cutting Issues. Validation against both Creditor Reporting System benchmarks and International Development Association commitment data demonstrates robustness. This approach illustrates how machine learning and the new advances in large language models can enhance the monitoring of global aid flows and inform future improvements in aid classification and reporting. It offers a useful tool that can support more responsive and evidence-based decision-making, helping to better align resources with evolving development priorities.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Tanzania Economic Update : Who Wants a Job?
    (Washington, DC, 2014-06) World Bank
    This fifth economic update also examines prospects for economic prosperity in the context of rapid urbanization; in particular, how the growth of cities can be harnessed to create productive jobs for a labor force that is expected to double in the next 15 years. By 2030, Dar es Salaam will be a mega city of over 10 million people. As demonstrated by many countries in the world, cities encourage the creation and expansion of businesses by reducing distances between suppliers and customers. Can Dar es Salaam and other Tanzanian urban areas become thriving cities? Can they avoid becoming metropolis slums? Urbanization comes with significant challenges, notably in terms of increased pressure on infrastructure, housing, and service provision. The quality of the business climate in urban Tanzania will need to be improved, as most small and large entrepreneurs suffer from the uncertainty, corruption, and insecurity that characterize the business environment. This economic update argues that these challenges need to be addressed with a sense of urgency.
  • Publication
    Sovereign Debt Management in Crisis in Europe and Central Asia
    (Washington, DC, 2013-05) World Bank
    The global financial crisis of 2008-2009 required most sovereign debt managers to adapt to rapidly changing market circumstances, by changing the mix of borrowing instruments and adopting techniques that minimize the impact of severe market dislocations and increased risk aversion. These actions, allied to prudent macroeconomic and debt management policies implemented by government in the years preceding the crises, were critical in helping countries meet their financing needs without undue strain on the financial markets. This toolkit draws on the approaches taken by a range of countries and provides sovereign debt policy makers with a rich set of potential actions to address crisis periods. A practical illustration on the use of some of these actions is conducted by analyzing the measures taken by Romania, Serbia and Turkey as a response to the recent crises. Authors draw lessons from these experiences and examine what other measures included in the toolkit could have been used to boost the crisis response impact in these economies, respecting country-specific contexts.
  • Publication
    Russian Economic Report, No. 22, June 2010
    (Washington, DC, 2010-06-16) World Bank
    Amid heightened global uncertainties, Russia is experiencing a bumpy recovery. Domestic demand is rising, but unemployment remains high, and credit and investment remain limited. The budget has benefited from higher oil prices, but fiscal consolidation remains important in the medium term. Crumbling infrastructure, especially in transport, could hamper the economy's competitiveness and longer-term growth prospects. The debt crisis in Western Europe sharpens the downside risks to global recovery and oil prices. But the effects on Russia are likely to be blunted by its stronger fiscal and debt positions and by limited trade and financial links with the affected countries. Russia is likely to grow by 4.5 percent in 2010, followed by 4.8 percent in 2011, as domestic demand expands in line with gradual improvements in the labor and credit markets. Employment is expected to improve gradually, however, enabling some further reductions in poverty.
  • Publication
    Nigeria - Competitiveness and Growth : Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 1. Executive Summary
    (Washington, DC, 2007-05) World Bank
    The theme of this report is Nigeria's competitiveness and growth. This report consequently focuses on constraints, opportunities and strategic choices associated with increasing productivity and growth of the Nigerian economy on a sustained basis. Its objective is not to present a "blueprint" for Nigeria's growth but rather to raise issues and provide some options for the consideration of policy makers and other Nigerian stakeholders. The report is structured in four main sections. The first section analyzes Nigeria's growth history, examines the recent growth pick up and assesses its sustainability. The second section analyses how the critical constraints to competitiveness and growth may be addressed. The third section discusses how trade -domestic and external - can be used more effectively to drive growth and poverty reduction. The final chapter provides policy conclusions and suggestions on what could be key elements of a growth agenda for Nigeria. The analysis in this report suggests the following key elements for a growth strategy for Nigeria: 1) Strengthening actions to tackle the most immediate constraints to the competitiveness of the economy presented by infrastructure and the business environment; 2) Using domestic trade more effectively to enhance productivity and competitiveness by strengthening their functioning, and building stronger linkages between the oil and non-oil sectors, and over time strengthening Nigeria's integration into global markets; 3) Ensuring that the poor can participate more fully in growth by placing urgent emphasis on (i) finding ways to give back some of the proceeds of oil windfall directly to Nigerians; (ii) raising agricultural productivity-including through enhanced technology; and (iii) encouraging the transition from informality to the formal sector; and 4) Building the human capital and technological base of the economy over the longer term.
  • Publication
    Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update, July 2010
    (Washington, DC, 2010-07) World Bank
    The improvement in public finances since last year, coupled with buoyant revenue due to the commodity price recovery, has led to growing pressures for increased government spending. Recently approved budget amendments envisage a 4.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) increase in spending on the originally approved 2010 budget, while the Mid-Term Budget Framework (MTBF) for 2011-2013 projects another 12.1 percent of GDP increase in spending in 2011. The main driver for the increases is the execution of promises made by both coalition parties to distribute monthly percentage rate, or MNT 1.5million (around US$1000) to each citizen in the form of cash and non-cash handouts and large public sector wage increases planned for October of this year. If these public spending plans materialize, they will set the stage for a renewed bout of high inflation and a possible return to the macroeconomic vulnerability characteristic of the boom-and-bust cycle of the recent past. In the real sector, the impact of increasing inflation is evidenced through a decline in real wages. The latest informal wage survey indicates that on average, workers' nominal wages have increased by about 10 percent from January 2010 to June 2010; this is because of an increase in job opportunities in the construction sector. Real wages, however, have declined on average due to the significant increase in the consumer price index.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022
    (Washington, DC, 2022-11) World Bank
    The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.
  • Publication
    Digital Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13) Begazo, Tania; Dutz, Mark Andrew; Blimpo, Moussa
    All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.
  • Publication
    Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Luna-Bazaldua, Diego; Levin, Victoria; Liberman, Julia; Gala, Priyal Mukesh
    This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2006
    (Washington, DC, 2005) World Bank
    This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.
  • Publication
    Argentina Country Climate and Development Report
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11) World Bank Group
    The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.