Publication: Nigeria Development Update - Staying the Course: Progress Amid Pressing Challenges
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2024-11-13
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2024-11-13
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The Nigeria Development Update (NDU) is a World Bank report series produced twice a year that assesses recent economic and social developments and prospects in Nigeria, and places these in a longer-term and global context. The NDU also provides an in-depth examination of selected policy issues and medium-term development challenges in Nigeria. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Nigeria’s evolving economy
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“World Bank. 2024. Nigeria Development Update - Staying the Course: Progress Amid Pressing Challenges. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42407 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Navigating Multiple Crises, Staying the Course on Long-term Development(Washington, DC, 2022-07)The world is facing a perfect storm that has the potential to undo decades of development gains. Two years into a major worldwide pandemic, the global impact of the war in Ukraine is hitting countries that were already stressed. Fiscal space has been eroded in many developing countries by rising borrowing costs, and a decade of rising debt capped by a further surge, severely exacerbated by the pandemic. Rising inflation and weakening economic recovery are contributing to growing macroeconomic imbalances, exacerbating already high risks of debt distress and leaving many households vulnerable. In April 2022, the World Bank Group (WBG) outlined a “Roadmap” to indicate how it would support clients as they respond to the impacts of these ongoing, multiple, overlapping, and compounding crises. This follow-up paper details the WBG’s crisis response and proposes a framework tailored to the current situation. This paper is organized as follows. Section II describes the multiple crises facing countries today. Section III proposes a framework for the WBG response to the global crisis. Section IV and V describe key considerations for the operational approach to the crisis response and detail the financing envelope. Section VI underscores the need for global coordination to maximize the impact of this crisis response. Section VII concludes with key issues.Publication Nigeria Development Update December 2022 - Nigeria's Choice(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-11-30)Nigeria’s economic performance has weakened since the previous Nigeria Development Update (NDU) was published in June 2022 under the title of “The Continuing Urgency of Business Unusual”. The global economic environment has weakened. Economic activity in most major economies has slowed in 2022 amid high inflation and central banks shifting toward contractionary monetary policies. External financing conditions, particularly for governments and private borrowers in frontier markets such as Nigeria, have tightened, as the US dollar has appreciated sharply against most other currencies to historically strong levels, and global benchmark interest rates have risen. Moving into 2023, growth in most regions is expected to weaken further, and uncertainty regarding the outlook remains elevated, partly because of key unknowns such as future developments related to the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine.Publication Nigeria Development Update, December 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12)This report highlights how the COVID-19 (coronavirus) crisis has impacted Nigeria’s economy. In 2020, Nigeria’s economy is expected to experience its deepest recession since the 1980s due to the COVID-19-related disruptions, notably lower oil prices and remittances, enhanced risk aversion in global capital markets, and mobility restrictions. In the baseline scenario—which assumes further macroeconomic reforms and a gradual recovery in oil prices—Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to contract by about 4 percent in 2020, growing modestly by 1.1 percent in 2021, and then recovering gradually towards the estimated population growth rate of 2.6 percent. With the rate of economic growth remaining below the population growth rate, per-capita incomes would continue declining and better full-time jobs will be much harder to find. This edition of the Nigeria Development Update takes stock of the recently implemented reforms and proposes policy options to both mitigate the impact of COVID-19 and foster a resilient, sustainable, and inclusive recovery. Managing the current crisis while strengthening the institutional and policy framework will require carefully sequenced reforms implemented over the immediate- and near-term. Robust mitigation and recovery policies would be based on five pillars: 1. Managing the domestic spread of COVID-19 until a vaccine is distributed; 2. Enhancing macroeconomic management to boost investor confidence; 3. Safeguarding and mobilizing revenues; 4. Reprioritizing public spending to protect critical development expenditures; and 5. Supporting economic activity and access to services and providing relief for poor and vulnerable communities.Publication Scaling Up Affordable Health Insurance : Staying the Course(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013-05)As the world recently turned its attention to the struggle of expanding health insurance coverage for 40 million people in the United States, it is important not to forget the 4 billion people in low- and middle-income countries that face the same hardship. Millions of the poor have already fallen back into poverty as a result of the ongoing global financial crisis. Millions more are at risk before full recovery. It is the poor and most vulnerable that are at greatest risk due to lack of protection against the impoverishing effects of illness. The research for this volume shows that, when properly designed and coupled with public subsidies, health insurance can contribute to the well-being of poor and middle-class households, not just the rich. And it can contribute to development goals such as improved access to health care, better financial protection against the cost of illness, and reduced social exclusion. Opponents vilify health insurance as an evil to be avoided at all cost. To them, health insurance leads to overconsumption of care, escalating costs-especially administrative costs-fraud and abuse, shunting of scarce resources away from the poor, cream skimming, adverse selection, moral hazard, and an inequitable health care system. Today many low-and middle-income countries are no longer listening to this dichotomized debate between vertical and horizontal approaches to health care. Instead, they are experimenting with new and innovative approaches to health care financing. Health insurance is becoming a new paradigm for reaching the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). They emphasize the need to combine several instruments to achieve three major development objectives in health care financing: 1) sustainable access to needed health care; 2) greater financial protection against the impoverishing cost of illness; and 3) reduction in social exclusion from organized health financing instruments. The use of insurance was recommended to pay for less frequent, higher-cost risks and subsidies to cover affordability for poorer patients to higher-frequency, lower-cost health problems.Publication Nigeria Development Update, June 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06)In 2020, Nigeria experienced its deepest recession in four decades, but growth resumed in the fourth quarter as pandemic restrictions were eased, oil prices recovered, and the authorities implemented policies to counter the economic shock. As a result, in 2020 the Nigerian economy experienced a smaller contraction (-1.8 percent) than had been projected when the pandemic began (-3.2 percent). As part of its response, the government carried out several long-delayed policy reforms, often against vocal opposition. Notably, the government (1) began to harmonize exchange rates; (2) began to eliminate gasoline subsidies; (3) started adjusting electricity tariffs to more cost-reflective levels; (4) cut nonessential spending and redirected resources to COVID-19 (coronavirus) responses at both the federal and the state levels; and (5) enhanced debt management and increased public-sector transparency, especially for oil and gas operations. By creating additional fiscal space and maximizing the impact of the government’s limited resources, these measures were critical in protecting the economy against a much deeper recession and in laying the foundation for earlier recovery. However, several critical reforms are as yet incomplete, which threatens Nigeria’s nascent recovery. In the baseline scenario, Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by 1.8 percent in 2021. Despite the current favorable external environment, with oil prices recovering and growth in advanced economies, reform slippages would hinder the renewed economic expansion and undermine progress toward Nigeria’s development goals. In a risk scenario, in which the government fails to sustain recent macroeconomic and structural reforms, the pace of economic recovery would slow, and GDP growth couldbe just 1.1 percent in 2021.
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