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Myanmar Economic Monitor, June 2023: A Fragile Recovery - Special Focus on Employment, Incomes and Coping Mechanisms

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dc.contributor.authorWorld Bank
dc.date.accessioned2023-06-28T14:26:13Z
dc.date.available2023-06-28T14:26:13Z
dc.date.issued2023-06-28
dc.description.abstractFollowing the significant volatility that characterized much of 2022, economic conditions in Myanmar have shown tentative signs of stabilization in the first half of 2023. The parallel market exchange rate remained broadly stable between January and May, albeit 27 percent lower against the US dollar than in June 2022 and depreciation pressures appear to have reemerged in recent weeks. In the medium-term, the deep contraction in 2021, the ensuring weak and uneven recovery, and increasing policy distortions will leave the economy permanently scarred. Many of the trends observed at household, firm and industry levels are likely to damage the productive capacity of the economy, in addition to their direct impacts on welfare and inequality. Increased reliance on coping mechanisms such as asset sales and reduced spending on health, education and agricultural inputs will curtail the longer-term earnings capacity of households. There has been little evidence of productivity-enhancing structural transformation in recent years; instead, more highly educated workers have moved into agriculture and away from higher productivity activities. Migration in recent years has been mostly forced, lowering the potential for income and productivity gains with recent migrants across states and regions within Myanmar tending to be worse off across various welfare indicators. And while interventionist measures to promote import substitution and self-sufficiency can generate employment and activity in the short term, in the long run, growth is likely to suffer as resources move toward activities that are less compatible with local factor endowments, and as the scope for productivity gains from specialization and exposure to international competition diminishes. Increased out-migration of more skilled workers and the sharp slowdown of foreign investment inflows will further constrain Myanmar’s prospects for development over the longer term.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099062823041522943/P1791060533bdb01b0ae0a0c82f34c1c320
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/39938
dc.identifier.urihttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/39938
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.rightsCC BY-NC 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/igo
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SECTOR
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICIT
dc.titleMyanmar Economic Monitor, June 2023en
dc.title.subtitleA Fragile Recovery - Special Focus on Employment, Incomes and Coping Mechanismsen
dc.typeReport
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleMyanmar Economic Monitor, June 2023: A Fragile Recovery - Special Focus on Employment, Incomes and Coping Mechanisms
okr.date.disclosure2023-06-28
okr.date.lastmodified2023-06-28T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work::Economic Updates and Modeling
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099062823041522943/P1791060533bdb01b0ae0a0c82f34c1c320
okr.guid099062823041522943
okr.identifier.docmidP179106-533bdb4f-aa76-431b-ae0a-c82f34c1c320
okr.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1596/39938
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34103753
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34103753
okr.identifier.report183437
okr.import.id963
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099062823041522943/pdf/P1791060533bdb01b0ae0a0c82f34c1c320.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEast Asia and Pacific
okr.region.countryMyanmar
okr.sectorCentral Government (Central Agencies)
okr.themeInclusive Growth,Human Development and Gender,Data Development and Capacity Building,Financial Stability,Economic Policy,Public Finance Management,Economic Growth and Planning,Finance,Domestic Revenue Administration,Labor Market Policy and Programs,Public Sector Management,Data production, accessibility and use,Macroeconomic & Structural Policy Modelling,Labor Market Institutions,Public Expenditure Management,Financial Sector oversight and policy/banking regulation & restructuring
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Inflation
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Fiscal & Monetary Policy
okr.unitEFI-EAP-Regional Director (EEADR)
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