Publication:
Guatemala : Country Economic Memorandum, Challenges to Higher Economic Growth

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (18.35 MB)
247 downloads
English Text (667.2 KB)
566 downloads
Date
2005-03
ISSN
Published
2005-03
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The purpose of this Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) is to contribute to the ongoing discussion in Guatemala about means of accelerating economic growth to help achieve targets set in the 1996 Peace Accords as a key ingredient in the fight to reduce national poverty rates. Chapter I examines historical and recent developments and uses a benchmarking growth methodology to identify the measures and policies most conducive to increasing long-term economic growth. Those areas that are identified as critical on the list of priorities are developed further in separate chapters. Chapter II focuses on the important role of human capital development for growth, along with the complementary policies for improving education and health. Chapter III examines the investment climate, broadly understood, which includes governance, access to infrastructure, and financial development. Chapter IV analyzes the importance of innovation and technology adaptation for productivity growth. Chapter V looks at trade openness and the catalytic role that the recently negotiated free trade agreement with the U.S. (CAFTA) could have on the Guatemalan economy.
Link to Data Set
Citation
World Bank. 2005. Guatemala : Country Economic Memorandum, Challenges to Higher Economic Growth. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/8544 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Africa Development Indicators 2007
    (Washington, DC, 2008) World Bank
    The Africa Development Indicators 2007 essay explores the patterns of growth in Sub- Saharan Africa over the past three decades. It finds that the volatility of growth-an outcome of conflict, governance, and world commodity prices-has been greater than in any other region. Volatility has dampened expectations and investments-and has obscured some periods of good performance for some countries. The essay shows that pickups in growth were seldom sustained- indeed, that they were often followed by ferocious declines, and hence, Africa's flat economic performance over 1975-2005. The essay shows that avoiding economic declines is as important as promoting growth. Indeed, it may be more important for the poor, who gain less during the growth pickups and suffer more during the declines. The essay discusses a key question for economic policymakers in Africa: how best to sustain pickups in growth and its benefits. The Africa Development Indicators suite of products is designed to provide all those interested in Africa with a set of indicators to monitor development outcomes in the region and is an important reference tool for those who want a better understanding of the economic and social developments occurring in Africa.
  • Publication
    Scaling up Aid or Scaling down : The Global Economic Crisis and Rwanda’s MDGs
    (2009-06-01) Lofgren, Hans; Nielsen, Hannah; Ezemenari, Kene
    Rwanda is not on track to achieve most of the Millennium Development Goals at a time when hopes for scaled-up aid are mixed with concerns that, in the context of the global economic crisis, aid instead will be scaled down. This paper analyzes the effects of alternative scenarios for grant aid, government spending allocations (between infrastructure, agriculture, and human development), and government efficiency. The authors use an economy-wide model for development strategy analysis, Maquette for Millennium Development Goal Simulations. Under a plausible scenario for increased aid, annual growth in gross domestic product increases by as much as 0.6 percentage points relative to a baseline with a growth rate of 6 percent; by 2020, the headcount poverty rate declines to 32 percent, 3 percentage points lower than for the baseline. A plausible scenario for reduced aid leads to a symmetric growth reduction but a more pronounced increase in poverty, at 40 percent in 2020. When aid increases, the most positive growth and poverty reduction impacts occur if spending increases are allocated to infrastructure and agriculture; progress in human health and education is significant but weaker than if additional spending is focused on these areas. Given synergies and diminishing marginal returns from expansion in a limited area, the scenarios that may appear most attractive and politically feasible have a broad and balanced expansion across government functions, promoting both growth and human development.
  • Publication
    Rwanda : Toward Sustained Growth and Competitiveness, Volume 1. Synthesis and Priority Measures
    (Washington, DC, 2007-10-12) World Bank
    Rwanda established targets for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and poverty reduction, to be achieved by the year 2020; these were to (i) raise real per capita income from $230 to $900; and (ii) reduce the poverty incidence by half. To reach these targets, the Government projected in its 2002 Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) that GDP growth will to be in the range of 6 to 7 percent over the medium term. The PRSP focused on six priority areas: (i) rural development and agricultural transformation; (ii) human development; (iii) economic infrastructure; (iv) good governance; (v) private sector development; and (vi) institutional capacity development. While increased spending in the social sectors led to substantial improvements in outcomes there has been only limited spending for economic services, including investment to improve productivity in agriculture and manufacturing. Improvements in poverty have been marginal, due to a number of factors: (i) lack of investment in infrastructure during the recovery and stabilization phase, to complement the reforms undertaken to improve the business environment; (ii) lack of investments in capacity, institutions, and land/water management in the agricultural sector; (iii) continued low use of inputs; (iv) instability within the region; (v) delays in Rwanda's accession to the East Africa Community (EAC); and (vi) a slower than expected pace of reform in key sectors such as the tea industry. The PRSP anticipated that growth in the agricultural sector will proceed with progressive commercialization, with ensuing demand for agricultural and non-agricultural goods and services in rural areas, resulting in increasing non-farm employment.
  • Publication
    Rwanda : Toward Sustained Growth and Competitiveness, Volume 2. Main Report
    (Washington, DC, 2007-10-12) World Bank
    Rwanda established targets for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and poverty reduction, to be achieved by the year 2020; these were to (i) raise real per capita income from $230 to $900; and (ii) reduce the poverty incidence by half. To reach these targets, the Government projected in its 2002 Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) that GDP growth will to be in the range of 6 to 7 percent over the medium term. The PRSP focused on six priority areas: (i) rural development and agricultural transformation; (ii) human development; (iii) economic infrastructure; (iv) good governance; (v) private sector development; and (vi) institutional capacity development. While increased spending in the social sectors led to substantial improvements in outcomes there has been only limited spending for economic services, including investment to improve productivity in agriculture and manufacturing. Improvements in poverty have been marginal, due to a number of factors: (i) lack of investment in infrastructure during the recovery and stabilization phase, to complement the reforms undertaken to improve the business environment; (ii) lack of investments in capacity, institutions, and land/water management in the agricultural sector; (iii) continued low use of inputs; (iv) instability within the region; (v) delays in Rwanda's accession to the East Africa Community (EAC); and (vi) a slower than expected pace of reform in key sectors such as the tea industry. The PRSP anticipated that growth in the agricultural sector will proceed with progressive commercialization, with ensuing demand for agricultural and non-agricultural goods and services in rural areas, resulting in increasing non-farm employment.
  • Publication
    Uruguay : Sources of Growth, Policies for the Development of Human Capital, Integration, Competition and Innovation
    (Washington, DC, 2005-06) World Bank
    Uruguay, with a prosperity built on beef and other meat exports, was among the fastest-growing economies in the world at the turn of the twentieth century. In parallel with economic successes driven by exports under a liberal trade regime, early in the 20th century, Uruguay had already initiated a strong and efficient welfare state. By contrast, the slowdown in per capita GDP growth has been more severe in the past 40 years (over 1961-99 per capita GDP growth averaged 1.1 percent, which is two-thirds of the rate achieved by Latin America) - except in the nineties when Uruguay (temporarily) grew at a faster rate than the region. In the 1961-1999 period, the rate of growth was less than half that of industrial countries, and less than one-fourth of that of East Asia. Uruguay must consolidate its incipient economic recovery following a prolonged, and deep recession: the economy shrank 17 percent, and household incomes dropped over 20 percent in real terms over 1999-2003. Notwithstanding, the economy bounced back strongly since mid-2003, and GDP growth in 2004 is estimated at 12.3 percent; the level of unemployment fell from almost 20 percent at the end of 2002, to 12.1 percent at the end of 2004. However, there is a qualitative difference between economic recovery and sustained growth. The country's relatively poor growth performance over the last half century can be traced to several key structural weaknesses, i.e., a pro-cyclical fiscal policy, intrinsically associated with lack of flexibility in social spending; a high and growing dependency ratio (between retirees and the working age population) - worsened by emigration by young people - and increased levels of informal employment; and, lack of effective competition in infrastructure sectors, dominated by the public sector and - in a related manner - the setting of tariffs with a fiscal criterion that limits incentives to increase efficiency, among several other structural factors. The objective of this study is to help develop a "shared" vision of growth with equity in Uruguay, but, unless shared, the policies and reforms discussed are unlikely to be implemented, maintained, or to be credible. The first pillar of this framework involves policies leading to fiscal and financial stability, the efficient operation of factor markets (capital and labor), and, the strengthening of social protection. The second pillar of policies and reforms aims at the creation of an investment climate, favorable to the accumulation of physical and human capital; it includes trade and integration policies, the development of a competitive framework - particularly in infrastructure sectors; and, policies on education and health for the development of human capital. The third pillar is formed by the policies and reforms that promote growth driven through innovation; it will require a thorough transformation of institutional capabilities, entrepreneurial culture, and the system of innovation.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    World Development Report 2006
    (Washington, DC, 2005) World Bank
    This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.
  • Publication
    Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Luna-Bazaldua, Diego; Levin, Victoria; Liberman, Julia; Gala, Priyal Mukesh
    This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.
  • Publication
    Argentina Country Climate and Development Report
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11) World Bank Group
    The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.
  • Publication
    Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022
    (Washington, DC, 2022-11) World Bank
    The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-11) World Bank
    After several years of negative shocks, global growth is expected to hold steady in 2024 and then edge up in the next couple of years, in part aided by cautious monetary policy easing as inflation gradually declines. However, economic prospects are envisaged to remain tepid, especially in the most vulnerable countries. Risks to the outlook, while more balanced, are still tilted to the downside, including the possibility of escalating geopolitical tensions, further trade fragmentation, and higher-for-longer interest rates. Natural disasters related to climate change could also hinder activity. Subdued growth prospects across many emerging market and developing economies and continued risks underscore the need for decisive policy action at the global and national levels. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.