Publication:
Planning for Higher Oil Prices : Power Sector Impact in Latin America and the Caribbean

dc.contributor.author Yépez-García, Rigoberto Ariel
dc.contributor.author San Vicente Portes, Luis
dc.contributor.author García, Luis Enrique
dc.date.accessioned 2014-04-01T18:09:11Z
dc.date.available 2014-04-01T18:09:11Z
dc.date.issued 2013-12
dc.description.abstract A scenario with higher oil prices has important implications for diverting from oil-based technologies to renewables, as well as gas, coal, and nuclear alternatives. By 2030, energy demand in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is expected to double from 2008 levels. A key issue is deciding on the most appropriate mix of fuels for power generation, given the various prices of energy sources and technologies, as well as availability of renewable energy. The study's broad aim is to evaluate the impact of higher oil prices on the cost of generating electricity in countries of the LAC region so that better-informed energy policy planners can buffer future adverse effects. The study defines high oil prices as those above United States (U.S.) $100 per barrel. This price is considered a reasonable starting point for discussion given the recent range in oil prices, which averaged $95 a barrel in 2011. A price of $150 per barrel is defined as considerably high yet plausible given historical and current price levels, available forecasts, and other potential price drivers. The study's specific objectives are to: (i) analyze the economic effects of higher oil prices on LAC countries, particularly oil importers; (ii) assess the short-term impact on electricity generation costs based on the composition of generation matrices across countries of the region; and (iii) quantify the long term impact on electricity costs if countries modify the composition of their generation matrices in response to higher oil prices. This report is organized as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two presents the framework for analyzing the impact of higher oil prices, including an overview of recent price trends, major drivers of oil and gas prices, and a medium-term scenario under which higher prices might occur. Chapter three analyzes the impact of higher oil prices on LAC countries. Chapter four focuses on the short-term impact of higher oil prices on the electricity sector and the potential impact on the cost of generation, depending on the planning decisions made for future electricity generation. Finally, chapter five offers policy makers recommendations on the relevance of considering the potential impact of higher oil prices on countries' fiscal and trade balances, the cost of electricity to final consumers, and the impact that such cost may have on the competitiveness of their productive sector. en
dc.identifier http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/12/19128477/planning-higher-oil-prices-power-sector-impact-latin-america-caribbean
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10986/17547
dc.language English
dc.language.iso en_US
dc.publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rights CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject ADVERSE EFFECTS
dc.subject AMOUNT OF OIL
dc.subject APPROACH
dc.subject ATMOSPHERE
dc.subject AVAILABILITY
dc.subject BALANCE
dc.subject BARREL
dc.subject BARREL OIL
dc.subject BARREL PRICE
dc.subject BARRELS PER DAY
dc.subject BIOMASS
dc.subject BIOMASS GENERATION
dc.subject CARBON
dc.subject CARBON DIOXIDE
dc.subject CO2
dc.subject CO2 EMISSIONS
dc.subject COAL
dc.subject COAL PRICES
dc.subject COAL PRICING
dc.subject COAL RESOURCES
dc.subject COAL UNITS
dc.subject CONVENTIONAL GAS
dc.subject COST OF COAL
dc.subject COST OF ELECTRICITY
dc.subject COST OF GAS
dc.subject CRUDE OIL
dc.subject CRUDE OIL PRICES
dc.subject CRUDE OIL SUPPLY
dc.subject CRUDE PRICE
dc.subject DEMAND FOR ENERGY
dc.subject DEMAND FOR OIL
dc.subject DEMAND GROWTH
dc.subject DIESEL
dc.subject DRILLING
dc.subject ECOSYSTEMS
dc.subject ELECTRIC POWER
dc.subject ELECTRIC POWER GENERATORS
dc.subject ELECTRICITY
dc.subject ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
dc.subject ELECTRICITY COSTS
dc.subject ELECTRICITY DEMAND
dc.subject ELECTRICITY GENERATION
dc.subject ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX
dc.subject ELECTRICITY PRICES
dc.subject ELECTRICITY PRICING
dc.subject ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION
dc.subject ELECTRICITY SECTOR
dc.subject ELECTRICITY SUPPLY
dc.subject ELECTRICITY TARIFF
dc.subject ENERGY BALANCE
dc.subject ENERGY CONSERVATION
dc.subject ENERGY CONSUMPTION
dc.subject ENERGY COSTS
dc.subject ENERGY DEMAND
dc.subject ENERGY EFFICIENCY
dc.subject ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
dc.subject ENERGY INTENSITY
dc.subject ENERGY MARKET
dc.subject ENERGY MIX
dc.subject ENERGY NEEDS
dc.subject ENERGY PLANNERS
dc.subject ENERGY POLICY
dc.subject ENERGY PRICES
dc.subject ENERGY REQUIREMENTS
dc.subject ENERGY SOURCES
dc.subject ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
dc.subject ENERGY TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
dc.subject ENERGY USE
dc.subject ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
dc.subject ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS
dc.subject EXCESS SUPPLY
dc.subject EXTRACTION
dc.subject FEEDSTOCK
dc.subject FOREIGN EXCHANGE
dc.subject FOSSIL
dc.subject FOSSIL FUEL
dc.subject FOSSIL FUELS
dc.subject FOSSIL-FUEL
dc.subject FUEL
dc.subject FUEL COST
dc.subject FUEL COSTS
dc.subject FUEL DEMAND
dc.subject FUEL EXPORTS
dc.subject FUEL OIL
dc.subject FUEL PRICE
dc.subject FUEL PRICES
dc.subject FUEL SUBSTITUTION
dc.subject FUEL USE
dc.subject FUTURE ENERGY NEEDS
dc.subject GAS MARKETS
dc.subject GAS PRICE
dc.subject GAS PRICES
dc.subject GAS PRICING
dc.subject GAS PRODUCER
dc.subject GAS PRODUCTION
dc.subject GAS SUPPLY
dc.subject GAS TECHNOLOGY
dc.subject GAS TURBINE
dc.subject GAS WELLHEAD
dc.subject GAS-PRODUCING COUNTRIES
dc.subject GASOLINE
dc.subject GASOLINE PRODUCTION
dc.subject GENERATION
dc.subject GENERATION CAPACITY
dc.subject GEOTHERMAL GENERATION
dc.subject GREENHOUSE
dc.subject GREENHOUSE GAS
dc.subject GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
dc.subject GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subject GROWTH IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND
dc.subject HEALTH RISKS
dc.subject HEAVY CRUDE
dc.subject HEAVY FUEL OIL
dc.subject HEAVY RELIANCE
dc.subject HIGH OIL PRICES
dc.subject HIGHER ENERGY CONSUMPTION
dc.subject HIGHER ENERGY PRICES
dc.subject HIGHER OIL PRICES
dc.subject HYDROCARBON FUELS
dc.subject HYDROCARBONS
dc.subject HYDROPOWER
dc.subject HYDROPOWER GENERATION
dc.subject INCOME
dc.subject INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
dc.subject INVESTMENTS IN ENERGY
dc.subject KILOWATT HOUR
dc.subject LIGHT CRUDE
dc.subject LIQUID FUEL
dc.subject LIQUIDS PRODUCTION
dc.subject LNG
dc.subject METHANE
dc.subject MILLION BARRELS
dc.subject MILLION BARRELS PER DAY
dc.subject MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE
dc.subject NATURAL GAS
dc.subject NATURAL GAS MARKET
dc.subject NATURAL GAS PRICE
dc.subject NATURAL GAS PRICES
dc.subject NATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subject NATURAL-GAS
dc.subject NET OIL
dc.subject OIL
dc.subject OIL AND GAS
dc.subject OIL CONSUMPTION
dc.subject OIL CRISIS
dc.subject OIL DEMAND
dc.subject OIL EQUIVALENT
dc.subject OIL EXPORTER
dc.subject OIL EXPORTERS
dc.subject OIL EXPORTING
dc.subject OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES
dc.subject OIL EXPORTS
dc.subject OIL IMPORT
dc.subject OIL IMPORT BILL
dc.subject OIL IMPORTERS
dc.subject OIL IMPORTING
dc.subject OIL IMPORTING COUNTRIES
dc.subject OIL IMPORTING NATIONS
dc.subject OIL MARKET
dc.subject OIL POWER
dc.subject OIL PRICE
dc.subject OIL PRICE CHANGES
dc.subject OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS
dc.subject OIL PRICE SCENARIO
dc.subject OIL PRICES
dc.subject OIL PRODUCTS
dc.subject OIL REFINERY
dc.subject OIL REVENUES
dc.subject OIL SHOCK
dc.subject OIL SHOCKS
dc.subject OIL SUPPLIES
dc.subject OIL SUPPLY
dc.subject OIL TANKER
dc.subject OIL-IMPORTING COUNTRIES
dc.subject OIL-PRODUCING COUNTRIES
dc.subject OPEC
dc.subject OPEC COUNTRIES
dc.subject PEAK LOAD
dc.subject PER CAPITA ENERGY
dc.subject PER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTION
dc.subject PETROLEUM
dc.subject PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES
dc.subject PIPELINES
dc.subject POTENT GREENHOUSE GAS
dc.subject POWER
dc.subject POWER GENERATION
dc.subject POWER PRODUCER
dc.subject POWER PRODUCERS
dc.subject POWER SECTOR
dc.subject PRICE COMPARISONS
dc.subject PRICE COMPETITIVENESS
dc.subject PRICE ELASTICITY
dc.subject PRICE OF COAL
dc.subject PRICE OF GAS
dc.subject PRICE OF NATURAL GAS
dc.subject PRICE OF OIL
dc.subject PRICE VOLATILITY
dc.subject PRICES OF ENERGY
dc.subject PRIMARY ENERGY
dc.subject PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCE
dc.subject PRIVATE SECTOR
dc.subject PRODUCTION COSTS
dc.subject REFINED PRODUCTS
dc.subject REFINERIES
dc.subject REFINERY CAPACITY
dc.subject REGRESSION ANALYSIS
dc.subject RENEWABLE ENERGY
dc.subject RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL
dc.subject RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES
dc.subject RENEWABLE SOURCES
dc.subject RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES
dc.subject RESIDUAL FUEL
dc.subject RESIDUAL FUEL OIL
dc.subject SPOT PRICE
dc.subject SULFUR
dc.subject SULFUR CONTENT
dc.subject SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
dc.subject THERMAL UNIT
dc.subject TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION
dc.subject TOTAL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION
dc.subject TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
dc.subject UTILITIES
dc.subject WELLHEAD PRICE
dc.subject WELLHEAD PRICES
dc.subject WIND
dc.subject WIND ENERGY
dc.subject WIND ENERGY GENERATION
dc.subject WORLD OIL
dc.subject WORLD OIL PRODUCTION
dc.title Planning for Higher Oil Prices : Power Sector Impact in Latin America and the Caribbean en
dspace.entity.type Publication
okr.crosscuttingsolutionarea Jobs
okr.date.disclosure 2014-02-26
okr.doctype Economic & Sector Work :: Energy Study
okr.docurl http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/12/19128477/planning-higher-oil-prices-power-sector-impact-latin-america-caribbean
okr.globalpractice Environment and Natural Resources
okr.globalpractice Energy and Extractives
okr.globalpractice Trade and Competitiveness
okr.globalpractice Energy and Extractives
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum 000442464_20140226141847
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum 19128477
okr.identifier.report 85008
okr.language.supported en
okr.pdfurl http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/02/26/000442464_20140226141847/Rendered/PDF/850080WP0P1285350Box382145B00PUBLIC00ACS.pdf en
okr.region.administrative Latin America & Caribbean
okr.region.geographical Caribbean
okr.region.geographical Latin America
okr.sector Energy and mining :: General energy sector
okr.theme Economic management :: Debt management and fiscal sustainability
okr.theme Financial and private sector development :: Infrastructure services for private sector development
okr.theme Financial and private sector development :: Regulation and competition policy
okr.theme Financial and private sector development :: State enterprise/bank restructuring and privatization
okr.theme Environment and natural resources management :: Climate change
okr.topic Energy :: Energy Demand
okr.topic Environment :: Environment and Energy Efficiency
okr.topic Energy :: Energy Production and Transportation
okr.topic Oil Refining and Gas Industry
okr.topic Energy :: Energy and Environment
okr.topic Industry
okr.unit Energy (LCSEG)
okr.volume 1 of 1
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
Thumbnail Image
Name:
English PDF
Size:
4.52 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
English Text
Size:
292.32 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
Collections