Publication:
Planning for Higher Oil Prices : Power Sector Impact in Latin America and the Caribbean

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dc.contributor.authorYépez-García, Rigoberto Ariel
dc.contributor.authorSan Vicente Portes, Luis
dc.contributor.authorGarcía, Luis Enrique
dc.date.accessioned2014-04-01T18:09:11Z
dc.date.available2014-04-01T18:09:11Z
dc.date.issued2013-12
dc.description.abstractA scenario with higher oil prices has important implications for diverting from oil-based technologies to renewables, as well as gas, coal, and nuclear alternatives. By 2030, energy demand in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is expected to double from 2008 levels. A key issue is deciding on the most appropriate mix of fuels for power generation, given the various prices of energy sources and technologies, as well as availability of renewable energy. The study's broad aim is to evaluate the impact of higher oil prices on the cost of generating electricity in countries of the LAC region so that better-informed energy policy planners can buffer future adverse effects. The study defines high oil prices as those above United States (U.S.) $100 per barrel. This price is considered a reasonable starting point for discussion given the recent range in oil prices, which averaged $95 a barrel in 2011. A price of $150 per barrel is defined as considerably high yet plausible given historical and current price levels, available forecasts, and other potential price drivers. The study's specific objectives are to: (i) analyze the economic effects of higher oil prices on LAC countries, particularly oil importers; (ii) assess the short-term impact on electricity generation costs based on the composition of generation matrices across countries of the region; and (iii) quantify the long term impact on electricity costs if countries modify the composition of their generation matrices in response to higher oil prices. This report is organized as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two presents the framework for analyzing the impact of higher oil prices, including an overview of recent price trends, major drivers of oil and gas prices, and a medium-term scenario under which higher prices might occur. Chapter three analyzes the impact of higher oil prices on LAC countries. Chapter four focuses on the short-term impact of higher oil prices on the electricity sector and the potential impact on the cost of generation, depending on the planning decisions made for future electricity generation. Finally, chapter five offers policy makers recommendations on the relevance of considering the potential impact of higher oil prices on countries' fiscal and trade balances, the cost of electricity to final consumers, and the impact that such cost may have on the competitiveness of their productive sector.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/12/19128477/planning-higher-oil-prices-power-sector-impact-latin-america-caribbean
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/17547
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/17547
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectADVERSE EFFECTS
dc.subjectAMOUNT OF OIL
dc.subjectAPPROACH
dc.subjectATMOSPHERE
dc.subjectAVAILABILITY
dc.subjectBALANCE
dc.subjectBARREL
dc.subjectBARREL OIL
dc.subjectBARREL PRICE
dc.subjectBARRELS PER DAY
dc.subjectBIOMASS
dc.subjectBIOMASS GENERATION
dc.subjectCARBON
dc.subjectCARBON DIOXIDE
dc.subjectCO2
dc.subjectCO2 EMISSIONS
dc.subjectCOAL
dc.subjectCOAL PRICES
dc.subjectCOAL PRICING
dc.subjectCOAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectCOAL UNITS
dc.subjectCONVENTIONAL GAS
dc.subjectCOST OF COAL
dc.subjectCOST OF ELECTRICITY
dc.subjectCOST OF GAS
dc.subjectCRUDE OIL
dc.subjectCRUDE OIL PRICES
dc.subjectCRUDE OIL SUPPLY
dc.subjectCRUDE PRICE
dc.subjectDEMAND FOR ENERGY
dc.subjectDEMAND FOR OIL
dc.subjectDEMAND GROWTH
dc.subjectDIESEL
dc.subjectDRILLING
dc.subjectECOSYSTEMS
dc.subjectELECTRIC POWER
dc.subjectELECTRIC POWER GENERATORS
dc.subjectELECTRICITY
dc.subjectELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectELECTRICITY COSTS
dc.subjectELECTRICITY DEMAND
dc.subjectELECTRICITY GENERATION
dc.subjectELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX
dc.subjectELECTRICITY PRICES
dc.subjectELECTRICITY PRICING
dc.subjectELECTRICITY PRODUCTION
dc.subjectELECTRICITY SECTOR
dc.subjectELECTRICITY SUPPLY
dc.subjectELECTRICITY TARIFF
dc.subjectENERGY BALANCE
dc.subjectENERGY CONSERVATION
dc.subjectENERGY CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectENERGY COSTS
dc.subjectENERGY DEMAND
dc.subjectENERGY EFFICIENCY
dc.subjectENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
dc.subjectENERGY INTENSITY
dc.subjectENERGY MARKET
dc.subjectENERGY MIX
dc.subjectENERGY NEEDS
dc.subjectENERGY PLANNERS
dc.subjectENERGY POLICY
dc.subjectENERGY PRICES
dc.subjectENERGY REQUIREMENTS
dc.subjectENERGY SOURCES
dc.subjectENERGY TECHNOLOGY
dc.subjectENERGY TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
dc.subjectENERGY USE
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS
dc.subjectEXCESS SUPPLY
dc.subjectEXTRACTION
dc.subjectFEEDSTOCK
dc.subjectFOREIGN EXCHANGE
dc.subjectFOSSIL
dc.subjectFOSSIL FUEL
dc.subjectFOSSIL FUELS
dc.subjectFOSSIL-FUEL
dc.subjectFUEL
dc.subjectFUEL COST
dc.subjectFUEL COSTS
dc.subjectFUEL DEMAND
dc.subjectFUEL EXPORTS
dc.subjectFUEL OIL
dc.subjectFUEL PRICE
dc.subjectFUEL PRICES
dc.subjectFUEL SUBSTITUTION
dc.subjectFUEL USE
dc.subjectFUTURE ENERGY NEEDS
dc.subjectGAS MARKETS
dc.subjectGAS PRICE
dc.subjectGAS PRICES
dc.subjectGAS PRICING
dc.subjectGAS PRODUCER
dc.subjectGAS PRODUCTION
dc.subjectGAS SUPPLY
dc.subjectGAS TECHNOLOGY
dc.subjectGAS TURBINE
dc.subjectGAS WELLHEAD
dc.subjectGAS-PRODUCING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectGASOLINE
dc.subjectGASOLINE PRODUCTION
dc.subjectGENERATION
dc.subjectGENERATION CAPACITY
dc.subjectGEOTHERMAL GENERATION
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE GAS
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectGROWTH IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND
dc.subjectHEALTH RISKS
dc.subjectHEAVY CRUDE
dc.subjectHEAVY FUEL OIL
dc.subjectHEAVY RELIANCE
dc.subjectHIGH OIL PRICES
dc.subjectHIGHER ENERGY CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectHIGHER ENERGY PRICES
dc.subjectHIGHER OIL PRICES
dc.subjectHYDROCARBON FUELS
dc.subjectHYDROCARBONS
dc.subjectHYDROPOWER
dc.subjectHYDROPOWER GENERATION
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
dc.subjectINVESTMENTS IN ENERGY
dc.subjectKILOWATT HOUR
dc.subjectLIGHT CRUDE
dc.subjectLIQUID FUEL
dc.subjectLIQUIDS PRODUCTION
dc.subjectLNG
dc.subjectMETHANE
dc.subjectMILLION BARRELS
dc.subjectMILLION BARRELS PER DAY
dc.subjectMUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE
dc.subjectNATURAL GAS
dc.subjectNATURAL GAS MARKET
dc.subjectNATURAL GAS PRICE
dc.subjectNATURAL GAS PRICES
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectNATURAL-GAS
dc.subjectNET OIL
dc.subjectOIL
dc.subjectOIL AND GAS
dc.subjectOIL CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectOIL CRISIS
dc.subjectOIL DEMAND
dc.subjectOIL EQUIVALENT
dc.subjectOIL EXPORTER
dc.subjectOIL EXPORTERS
dc.subjectOIL EXPORTING
dc.subjectOIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectOIL EXPORTS
dc.subjectOIL IMPORT
dc.subjectOIL IMPORT BILL
dc.subjectOIL IMPORTERS
dc.subjectOIL IMPORTING
dc.subjectOIL IMPORTING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectOIL IMPORTING NATIONS
dc.subjectOIL MARKET
dc.subjectOIL POWER
dc.subjectOIL PRICE
dc.subjectOIL PRICE CHANGES
dc.subjectOIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS
dc.subjectOIL PRICE SCENARIO
dc.subjectOIL PRICES
dc.subjectOIL PRODUCTS
dc.subjectOIL REFINERY
dc.subjectOIL REVENUES
dc.subjectOIL SHOCK
dc.subjectOIL SHOCKS
dc.subjectOIL SUPPLIES
dc.subjectOIL SUPPLY
dc.subjectOIL TANKER
dc.subjectOIL-IMPORTING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectOIL-PRODUCING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectOPEC
dc.subjectOPEC COUNTRIES
dc.subjectPEAK LOAD
dc.subjectPER CAPITA ENERGY
dc.subjectPER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectPETROLEUM
dc.subjectPETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectPIPELINES
dc.subjectPOTENT GREENHOUSE GAS
dc.subjectPOWER
dc.subjectPOWER GENERATION
dc.subjectPOWER PRODUCER
dc.subjectPOWER PRODUCERS
dc.subjectPOWER SECTOR
dc.subjectPRICE COMPARISONS
dc.subjectPRICE COMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectPRICE ELASTICITY
dc.subjectPRICE OF COAL
dc.subjectPRICE OF GAS
dc.subjectPRICE OF NATURAL GAS
dc.subjectPRICE OF OIL
dc.subjectPRICE VOLATILITY
dc.subjectPRICES OF ENERGY
dc.subjectPRIMARY ENERGY
dc.subjectPRIMARY ENERGY SOURCE
dc.subjectPRIVATE SECTOR
dc.subjectPRODUCTION COSTS
dc.subjectREFINED PRODUCTS
dc.subjectREFINERIES
dc.subjectREFINERY CAPACITY
dc.subjectREGRESSION ANALYSIS
dc.subjectRENEWABLE ENERGY
dc.subjectRENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL
dc.subjectRENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES
dc.subjectRENEWABLE SOURCES
dc.subjectRENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES
dc.subjectRESIDUAL FUEL
dc.subjectRESIDUAL FUEL OIL
dc.subjectSPOT PRICE
dc.subjectSULFUR
dc.subjectSULFUR CONTENT
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE ENERGY
dc.subjectTHERMAL UNIT
dc.subjectTOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION
dc.subjectTOTAL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION
dc.subjectTOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectUTILITIES
dc.subjectWELLHEAD PRICE
dc.subjectWELLHEAD PRICES
dc.subjectWIND
dc.subjectWIND ENERGY
dc.subjectWIND ENERGY GENERATION
dc.subjectWORLD OIL
dc.subjectWORLD OIL PRODUCTION
dc.titlePlanning for Higher Oil Prices : Power Sector Impact in Latin America and the Caribbeanen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crosscuttingsolutionareaJobs
okr.date.disclosure2014-02-26
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-07T11:28:24.431188Z
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work::Energy Study
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/12/19128477/planning-higher-oil-prices-power-sector-impact-latin-america-caribbean
okr.globalpracticeEnvironment and Natural Resources
okr.globalpracticeEnergy and Extractives
okr.globalpracticeTrade and Competitiveness
okr.globalpracticeEnergy and Extractives
okr.guid601871468270623138
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000442464_20140226141847
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum19128477
okr.identifier.report85008
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/02/26/000442464_20140226141847/Rendered/PDF/850080WP0P1285350Box382145B00PUBLIC00ACS.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeLatin America & Caribbean
okr.region.geographicalCaribbean
okr.region.geographicalLatin America
okr.sectorEnergy and mining :: General energy sector
okr.themeEconomic management :: Debt management and fiscal sustainability
okr.themeFinancial and private sector development :: Infrastructure services for private sector development
okr.themeFinancial and private sector development :: Regulation and competition policy
okr.themeFinancial and private sector development :: State enterprise/bank restructuring and privatization
okr.themeEnvironment and natural resources management :: Climate change
okr.topicEnergy::Energy Demand
okr.topicEnvironment::Environment and Energy Efficiency
okr.topicEnergy::Energy Production and Transportation
okr.topicOil Refining and Gas Industry
okr.topicEnergy::Energy and Environment
okr.topicIndustry
okr.unitEnergy (LCSEG)
okr.volume1 of 1
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