Publication: The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth
Loading...
Published
2008
ISSN
Date
2017-08-28
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The real exchange rate was not at the center of the first generation of neoclassical growth models, nor was it prominent among the policy prescriptions that flowed from those models. Recent analyses, in contrast, have paid it more attention. This paper analyzes the role of the real exchange rate in the growth process, the channels through which the real exchange rate influences other variables, and policies useful (and not useful) for governing the real rate. An appendix provides econometric evidence supportive of the emphases in the text.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Eichengreen, Barry. 2008. The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth. Commission on Growth and Development Working Paper;No. 4. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/28013 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Africa's Macroeconomic Story(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-10)Much of Sub-Saharan Africa's post-independence macroeconomic history has been characterized by boom-bust cycles. Growth accelerations have been common, but short lived. Weak policy formulation and implementation led to large external and fiscal imbalances, excessive debt accumulation, volatile inflation, and sharp exchange rate fluctuations. This characterization changed, however, in the mid-1990s, when debt relief and better macroeconomic policy began to provide a source of stability that has helped sustain robust growth throughout much of the region. In resource rich countries, the process was supported over the past few years by a dramatic increase in commodity prices. But resources are only one part of the story. Growth has exhibited impressive resilience even in the face of negative external shocks, as in 2008-2009. While the short-term outlook remains positive, over the medium term policy makers face new challenges. Several countries have the potential to greatly expand natural resource production and become major commodity exporters; volatile resource revenue will complicate their fiscal and monetary planning. Rising investor appetite for financial assets of frontier markets and the development of domestic debt markets will continue to broaden the menu of and trade-offs among financing options at a time when global interest rates may start sloping upward. Complex financing arrangements -- notably for private-public or public-public partnerships in infrastructure -- will become more common and will generate new types of fiscal commitments and contingencies.Publication How to Move the Exchange Rate If You Must : The Diverse Practice of Foreign Exchange Intervention by Central Banks and a Proposal for Doing It Better(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-05)The paper is about the art of exchange rate management by central banks. It begins by reviewing the diversity of objectives and practices of central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. Central banks typically exercise discretion in determining when and to what extent to intervene. Some central banks use publicly declared rules of intervention, with the aim of increasing visibility and strengthening the signaling channel of policy. There is tentative evidence that the volatility of foreign exchange reserves is comparatively lower in emerging market economies where central banks follow some form of rules-based foreign exchange intervention. The paper goes on to argue that when the foreign exchange market includes some large strategic participants, the central bank can achieve superior outcomes if intervention takes the form of a rule, or "schedule," indicating commitments to buying and selling different quantities of foreign currency conditional on the exchange rate. Exchange rate management and reserve management can then be treated as two independent objectives by the central bank. In line with the stylized facts reviewed, this would enable a central bank to pursue exchange rate objectives with minimum reserve changes, or achieve reserve targets with minimum impact on the exchange rate.Publication The Experience with Macro-Prudential Policies of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in Response to the Global Financial Crisis(2011-10-01)This brief country case study on Turkey aims to summarize the fundamental developments in the banking sector, which represents almost 90 percent of the financial sector in the country. The brief has two parts. The first covers the 2001 financial crisis and the developments until end of 2007, the year before the global financial crisis of 2008 started. The second part focuses on the macro-prudential policies applied by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in response to the global financial crisis in three phases: (i) full liquidity support after Lehman Brothers' collapse (September 2008), (ii) the exit strategy (April 2010), and (iii) the new policy mix (final quarter of 2010).Publication Reserve Requirements in the Brave New Macroprudential World(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-02)Using a new, large data set on quarterly reserve requirements for the period 1970-2011, this paper provides new evidence on the use of reserve requirements as a countercyclical macroprudential tool in developing countries. The appeal of reserve requirements lies in the pro-cyclical behavior of the exchange rate over the business cycle in developing countries. This enormously complicates the use of interest rates as a countercyclical instrument (because of its effect on the exchange rate) and calls for a second instrument. The paper suggests that conflicts may arise between the microprudential and macroprudential policy stances.Publication Malaysia Economic Monitor, December 2013 : High-Performing Education(World Bank, Bangkok, 2013-12)Malaysia's economy regained momentum but yearly growth is set to decelerate in 2013. Export recovery into 2014 is expected to offset slower domestic demand and lead to a pick-up in growth. Fiscal consolidation is picking up pace with subsidy cuts, sin tax increases, and less generous public service bonuses. The full implementation of the minimum wage in January 2014 will provide an additional boost to households, as will increased cash transfers that are part of the government's strategy for subsidy rationalization and modernizing social protection. Malaysia performs very well with respect to access to education. Enrolments at primary and lower secondary levels are nearly universal and recent gains in pre-primary education have been note-worthy. Among East Asian countries that participated in the 2012 Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), Malaysian students only outperform their Indonesian peers, and lag even lower-income countries (including, by a wide margin, Vietnam). Expenditure on basic education is more than double that of other Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries and the decline in learning outcomes occurred while inputs to education were expanding and the size of the student population was falling. The key constraints to improving the quality of basic education thus relate not to the quantity of inputs but institutions. 46 percent of principals report a lack of qualified teaching staff as a constraint, and Ministry of Education (MOE) admits that in recent years some candidates enrolling in teacher training institutions did not meet minimum requirements of academic achievement at the secondary level. Lifting these constraints entails refining some of the measures recommended in the Education Blueprint for high-performing education system: (1) moving towards school-based decision-making; (2) improving parental involvement and enhancing accountability; and (3) improving incentives and recruitment for teachers. The government may consider piloting fixed contract recruitments with tenure contingent on performance, and tying retraining and up-skilling efforts with certification.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication The Macroeconomy After Tariffs(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2021-08-23)What does the macroeconomy look like in the aftermath of tariff changes This study estimates impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries from 1963 to 2014. Tariff increases are associated with persistent, economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity, as well as higher unemployment and inequality, real exchange rate appreciation, and insignificant changes to the trade balance. Output and productivity impacts are magnified when tariffs rise during expansions and when they are imposed by more advanced or smaller (as opposed to developing or larger) economies; effects are asymmetric, being larger when tariffs go up than when they fall. While firmly establishing causality is always a challenge, the results are robust to a large number of perturbations to the baseline methodology, and they hold using both macroeconomic and industry-level data.Publication Taking Stock, September 2025: Special Focus : Nurturing Viet Nam’s High-tech Talents(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-04)Following strong momentum in the first half of 2025, driven by front-loaded exports, the Vietnamese economy is expected to moderate over the remainder of the year as export growth normalizes, with a forecast real GDP growth of 6.6 percent in 2025. As an export-oriented economy, Viet Nam remains vulnerable to slower global growth and softening demand from major trading partners. Trade-policy uncertainty may also begin to weigh on business and consumer confidence. Over the medium term, growth is projected to ease to 6.1 percent in 2026 before rebounding to 6.5 percent in 2027, supported by a recovery in global trade and Viet Nam’s continued appeal as a competitive manufacturing base. To support growth and hedge against external uncertainty, the report recommends a focus on scaling up public investment, mitigating financial-sector risks, and advancing structural reforms. The special focus of this edition titled Nurturing Viet Nam’s High Tech Talents” highlights the need to build a skilled talent base that can support and accelerate the country’s innovation ecosystem. Achieving Viet Nam’s high tech ambitions and its goal of high income status by 2045 will require not only a broad and growing pipeline of young STEM graduates, but also a stronger core of experts who lead research, run laboratories, and turn ideas into market-ready products. The report highlights the potential to raise public and private R&D spending in Viet Nam, complementing broader business enabling reforms. Total R&D spending in Viet Nam remains lower than more developed regional peers. There is scope to increase PhD-level faculty to grow the pipeline of advanced-degree graduates and high-caliber researchers. Strengthening university–industry-government linkages could catalyze the development of a work-ready workforce and promote technology transfer and knowledge spillovers.Publication Reserve Management Survey Report 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-10-27)This survey report represents a collaborative effort between Reserve Advisory and Management Partnership (RAMP) and central banks worldwide to advance the understanding and practice of reserve management. The cooperation of all central banks involved is greatly appreciated, and we anticipate that the findings obtained from this survey will make a valuable contribution to the ongoing success and resilience of central bank reserve management.Publication Agriculture, Aid and Economic Growth in Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-05)How can foreign aid to agriculture support economic growth in Africa? This paper constructs a geographically-indexed applied general equilibrium model that considers pathways through which aid might affect growth and structural transformation of labor markets in the context of soil nutrient variation, minimum subsistence consumption requirements, domestic transport costs, labor mobility and constraints to self-financing of agricultural inputs. Using plausible parameters, the model is presented for Uganda as an illustrative case. Three stylized scenarios demonstrate the potential economy-wide impacts of both soil nutrient loss and replenishment, and how foreign aid can be targeted to support agricultural inputs that boost rural productivity and shift labor to boost real wages. One simulation shows how a temporary program of targeted official development assistance (ODA) for agriculture could generate, contrary to traditional Dutch disease concerns, an expansion in the primary tradable sector and positive permanent productivity and welfare effects, leading to a steady decline in the need for complementary ODA for budget support.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.