Publication: Poland Country Climate and Development Report
Loading...
Files in English
1,750 downloads
Other Files
927 downloads
Published
2024-11-05
ISSN
Date
2024-10-23
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The Country Climate and Development Report assesses how Poland can reap the benefits of faster decarbonization while reducing its vulnerability to climate shocks.
Accelerating decarbonization is in Poland’s economic interest. Achieving net zero emissions by 2050 will add an average 0.2 percent of GDP a year, leading to a cumulative 4 percent gain by 2050. At the same time, the reduction in air pollution brought about by decarbonization can lead to additional gains in terms of labor productivity and avoided mortality.
A comprehensive transformation of the energy system is crucial to achieving net zero emissions by 2050. This will entail removing barriers to renewable penetration, strengthening Poland’s transmission and distribution grid, using natural gas uniquely as transition technology, scaling up electricity trade, and repurposing current coal subsidies to mitigation of social end economic impacts in affected, vulnerable communities. Decarbonizing energy supply is also critical to cut the private sector’s carbon emissions to maintain competitiveness as global low-carbon efforts accelerate.
Increasing carbon sinks and limiting emissions in the agricultural sector and are vital for Poland’s green transition. Polish forests store 10% of all EU forest carbon and more than a decade of the country’s emissions. But their sink role has been declining. Rehabilitating forestry sinks will require improved forestry management and expansion of forest areas through the conversion of marginal, underutilized and low-productivity agricultural land.
Resilience investments will be needed to lessen the impact of climate shocks. Despite its relatively favorable geography, Poland is not immune from increased temperatures and more severe and frequent floods and droughts. In the absence of adaptation investments, impacts on infrastructure, agriculture and labor productivity could lead to GDP losses of 1.2% by 2050. Relatively modest resilience investments (equivalent to 0.1% of GDP) in sectors including agriculture, water, forestry and transport over the next 25 years can reduce the economic costs of climate shocks almost fully by 2050, and by half a decade earlier.
For Poland, achieving prosperity in changing climate is affordable and within reach. But with the set of key policies and investments requiring implementation between 2025 and 2035, clear policy direction and effective implementation in the short term will be crucial to achieve the country’s decarbonization and resilience objectives by mid century.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank Group. 2024. Poland Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42286 License: CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Climate and Development : An Agenda for Action - Emerging Insights from World Bank Group 2021-22 Country Climate and Development Reports(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-11-03)Climate change poses a major threat to long-term development objectives, especially poverty reduction, and accelerated emission reductions are needed, particularly in high-income and other high-emitting countries. Reducing emissions can be done without comprising development: taken together, CCDR low-carbon development strategies reduce emissions by 70%, without significant impact on growth, provided that policies are well designed and financing is available. Financing needs average 1.4 percent of GDP, a manageable amount with appropriate private sector involvement. But in lower-income countries, financing needs can exceed 5 percent, which will require more support from high-income countries, including increased concessional resources.Publication Benin Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-12-05)This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) proposes that Benin focuses on building a resilient economy, with investment and policy options primarily targeted at adapting to climate change risks. The dependence of Benin’s economic structure on agriculture and informal employment makes its development path highly vulnerable to climate change in the absence of proper adaptation. The government and the private sector need to be better prepared to deal with climate change – building adequate institutions and governance structures will be crucial. While all sectors will have to become more resilient, this is especially urgent for agriculture and land use, urban and network infrastructure, and human development (education, health). Mitigation efforts should focus on avoiding carbon lock-ins and reducing deforestation. Investing in renewable energy whilst expanding the population’s access to electricity should be a priority for Benin. A higher share of renewable energy can bring about co-benefits for other sectors (agriculture, water, transport, and forestry). To maintain its growth trajectory, Benin needs to pay special attention to its most vulnerable people, including women. To protect the poor and vulnerable the just transition should focus on reconciling development and climate goals while addressing inequality (income and gender related), and spatial exclusion.Publication Madagascar Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-25)Climate change has made delivering better development in Madagascar ever more urgent. This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) finds that Madagascar’s aspiration to evolve into an emerging country by 2040 will be derailed unless it can bolster its resilience to intensifying climate shocks to safeguard its modest development gains and boost economic growth. The high frequency of extreme climate shocks since the 1970s has led to significant macroeconomic disturbances and weak growth. This CCDR examines the implications of future climate change for Madagascar’s growth, and the potential benefits of both structural reforms and adaptation investments. It outlines three priority areas for building resilience to climate change, and calculates the costs needed to achieve this. It provides detailed recommendations for finding the finance required, as well as for implementing the policy challenges identified.Publication Cameroon Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022)The Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) identifies ways that Cameroon can achieve its overall development objectives while fostering the transition to a greener, more resilient, and more inclusive development pathway. The CCDR finds that climate change is already a threat to Cameroon’s development and the country faces the challenge of changing the current development model to create opportunities to improve resilience and to put the country on a stronger development trajectory. Currently, about two million people (nine percent of Cameroon’s population) live in drought-affected areas, and about eight percent of the country’s GDP is vulnerable. Tropical forests cover almost 40 percent of the country and provide an estimated eight million rural people with traditional staples including food, medicines, fuel, and construction material. Changes in temperature, rain and droughts put these people at greater risk of increased poverty. Furthermore, populations living in certain regions are more vulnerable to climate hazards, especially in the Far North where debilitating droughts have contributed to alarming rates of food insecurity and loss of livelihoods. To achieve more rapid, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth, moving away from the state-led development model, and putting the private sector at the forefront of economic activity are needed. Without reforms, the proportion of the population subsisting on an income at or below the international poverty rate would still be about 15 percent in 2050, well above the global target of three percent, whereas changing the development model could bring that proportion down to about three percent by that year. The report also puts adaptation at the heart of climate action as well and identify four priority areas for intervention and which are: (i) agriculture, forestry and other land use; (ii) cities; (iii) infrastructure; and (iv) human capital.Publication Morocco Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-10)Climate change poses a serious threat to Morocco’s economic growth and human potential but with the right investments and policies in place, a more sustainable future is possible. A new World Bank diagnostic tool, The Country Climate and Development Report explores the linkages between climate and development and identifies priority actions to build resilience and reduce carbon emissions, while supporting economic growth and reducing poverty. The Morocco climate report identifies three priority areas – tackling water scarcity and droughts; enhancing resilience to floods; and decarbonizing the economy. The report also looks at the cross-cutting issues of financing, governance, and equity. The underlying message in the report is that if Morocco invests in climate action now and takes the appropriate policy measures, the benefits will be immense. Ambitious climate actions will help to revitalize rural areas, create new jobs and position the Kingdom as a green industrial hub, while also helping Morocco to reach its broader development goals. The report identifies key pathways to decarbonize the economy, reducing reliance on fossil fuels and massively deploying solar and wind power. The report estimates that total investment needed to put Morocco firmly on a resilient and low carbon pathway by the 2050s would be around $78 billion in present dollar value. The good news is that these investments could be gradual and that with the appropriate policies in place, the private sector could shoulder much of the cost.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Philippines Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)Climate change poses major risks for development in the Philippines. Climate shocks, whether in the form of extreme weather events or slow-onset trends, will hamper economic activities, damage infrastructure, and induce deep social disruptions. Adaptation to the risks of climate change, including both extreme events and slow-onset problems, is thus critical for the Philippines. Policy inaction would impose substantial economic and human costs, especially for the poor. Adaptation cannot eliminate the costs of climate change, but it can substantially reduce them. Many adaptation responses also contribute to mitigation; conversely, many mitigation measures generate local co-benefits, such as reduced air pollution. Although the Philippines is a relatively low emitter of greenhouse gas (GHG), it can contribute to global mitigation efforts through an energy transition, including a shift away from coal. The investment costs of such adaptation measures and an energy transition are substantial but not out of reach. The Philippines Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) comprehensively analyzes how climate change will affect the country's ability to meet its development goals and pursue green, resilient, and inclusive development. The CCDR helps identify opportunities for climate action by both the public and private sectors and prioritizes the most urgent development challenges impacted by climate change in the Philippines.Publication Türkiye Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-06-13)Integrating climate and development is a pillar of the World Bank Group’s Climate Change Action Plan 2021-25. To advance its implementation, the Bank Group has launched a new, core diagnostic tool: the Country Climate and Development Report, a new, core diagnostic tool that analyzes how a country’s development goals can be achieved in the context of adapting to and mitigating against climate change. These reports will reflect the country’s climate commitments and identify ways to support their implementation through public and private sector solutions. They will capture the centrality of people in policies on climate change adaptation and mitigation, assessing how climate risks affect people, and ways in which governments can build resilience and address poverty, distributional and job impact of climate change and climate action. The Turkiye Country Climate and Development Report explores how climate action, in line with the country’s mitigation goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2053 as well as its adaptation and resilience needs, interact with its growth and development path and contribute to achieving the country’s development objectives, help seize opportunities offered by green technologies, protect the economy against longer-term risks such as large-scale disasters or carbon lock-in as the world transitions towards zero-carbon technologies, and support a just and inclusive transition for all.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Tanzania Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2024-12-12)The Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for Tanzania identifies the impact of climate change on the country’s economy. The CCDR uses macroeconomic, climate, sectoral, institutional, and financial models to identify the economy’s exposure to climate risks and the opportunities to integrate climate action and development. High poverty levels and dependence on rainfed, low-productivity agriculture leaves Tanzania’s economy vulnerable to climate risks. By 2050, climate change could push an additional 2.6 million people in poverty and force up to 13 million Tanzanians to migrate internally. The CCDR presents how implementation of three multisectoral intervention areas could generate climate-positive, resilient, and inclusive growth in Tanzania by 2050. These are: integrating climate considerations when strengthening human capital and social protection; optimizing land and water use and management to boost agriculture and rural productivity, augment climate resilience, and lower greenhouses gas emissions; and prioritizing resilient and low-carbon transport, energy and digital infrastructure systems in urban areas and different sectors. The CCDR details governance arrangements for effective climate change action, presents investment needs, and describes options for mobilizing financing. Action is needed both to reduce vulnerabilities of Tanzania’s current economy and realize the country’s Vision 2050 goal of a more inclusive and sustainable growth trajectory. Targeted climate action could boost private investment and job creation, enabling Tanzania to meet its development objectives in the face of global risks. Technical background reports prepared for the CCDR are available upon request.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10)The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.