Publication: Poland Country Climate and Development Report
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Date
2024-11-05
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Published
2024-11-05
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Abstract
The Country Climate and Development Report assesses how Poland can reap the benefits of faster decarbonization while reducing its vulnerability to climate shocks.
Accelerating decarbonization is in Poland’s economic interest. Achieving net zero emissions by 2050 will add an average 0.2 percent of GDP a year, leading to a cumulative 4 percent gain by 2050. At the same time, the reduction in air pollution brought about by decarbonization can lead to additional gains in terms of labor productivity and avoided mortality.
A comprehensive transformation of the energy system is crucial to achieving net zero emissions by 2050. This will entail removing barriers to renewable penetration, strengthening Poland’s transmission and distribution grid, using natural gas uniquely as transition technology, scaling up electricity trade, and repurposing current coal subsidies to mitigation of social end economic impacts in affected, vulnerable communities. Decarbonizing energy supply is also critical to cut the private sector’s carbon emissions to maintain competitiveness as global low-carbon efforts accelerate.
Increasing carbon sinks and limiting emissions in the agricultural sector and are vital for Poland’s green transition. Polish forests store 10% of all EU forest carbon and more than a decade of the country’s emissions. But their sink role has been declining. Rehabilitating forestry sinks will require improved forestry management and expansion of forest areas through the conversion of marginal, underutilized and low-productivity agricultural land.
Resilience investments will be needed to lessen the impact of climate shocks. Despite its relatively favorable geography, Poland is not immune from increased temperatures and more severe and frequent floods and droughts. In the absence of adaptation investments, impacts on infrastructure, agriculture and labor productivity could lead to GDP losses of 1.2% by 2050. Relatively modest resilience investments (equivalent to 0.1% of GDP) in sectors including agriculture, water, forestry and transport over the next 25 years can reduce the economic costs of climate shocks almost fully by 2050, and by half a decade earlier.
For Poland, achieving prosperity in changing climate is affordable and within reach. But with the set of key policies and investments requiring implementation between 2025 and 2035, clear policy direction and effective implementation in the short term will be crucial to achieve the country’s decarbonization and resilience objectives by mid century.
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“World Bank Group. 2024. Poland Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. © Washington, DC: World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42286 License: CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO.”