Publication:
Bank Capital and Systemic Stability

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (798.54 KB)
1,508 downloads
English Text (116.32 KB)
87 downloads
Published
2014-06
ISSN
Date
2014-08-15
Author(s)
Anginer, Deniz
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper distinguishes among various types of capital and examines their effect on system-wide fragility. The analysis finds that higher quality forms of capital reduce the systemic risk contribution of banks, whereas lower quality forms can have a destabilizing impact, particularly during crisis periods. The impact of capital on systemic risk is less pronounced for smaller banks, for banks located in countries with more generous safety nets, and in countries with institutions that allow for better public and private monitoring of financial institutions. The results show that regulatory capital is effective in reducing systemic risk and that regulatory risk weights are correlated with higher future asset volatility, but this relationship is significantly weaker for larger banks. The paper also finds that increased regulatory risk-weights not correlated with future asset volatility increase systemic fragility. Overall, the results are consistent with the theoretical literature that emphasizes capital as a potential buffer in absorbing liquidity, information, and economic shocks reducing contagious defaults.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Anginer, Deniz; Demirguc-Kunt, Asli. 2014. Bank Capital and Systemic Stability. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6948. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19377 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10) Farkas, Hannah; Linsenmeier, Manuel; Talevi, Marta; Avner, Paolo; Jafino, Bramka Arga; Sidibe, Moussa
    This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    Labor Demand in the Age of Generative AI: Early Evidence from the U.S. Job Posting Data
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-18) Liu, Yan; Wang, He; Yu, Shu
    This paper examines the causal impact of generative artificial intelligence on U.S. labor demand using online job posting data. Exploiting ChatGPT’s release in November 2022 as an exogenous shock, the paper applies difference-in-differences and event study designs to estimate the job displacement effects of generative artificial intelligence. The identification strategy compares labor demand for occupations with high versus low artificial intelligence substitution vulnerability following ChatGPT’s launch, conditioning on similar generative artificial intelligence exposure levels to isolate substitution effects from complementary uses. The analysis uses 285 million job postings collected by Lightcast from the first quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2025Q2. The findings show that the number of postings for occupations with above-median artificial intelligence substitution scores fell by an average of 12 percent relative to those with below-median scores. The effect increased from 6 percent in the first year after the launch to 18 percent by the third year. Losses were particularly acute for entry-level positions that require neither advanced degrees (18 percent) nor extensive experience (20 percent), as well as those in administrative support (40 percent) and professional services (30 percent). Although generative artificial intelligence generates new occupations and enhances productivity, which may increase labor demand, early evidence suggests that some occupations may be less likely to be complemented by generative artificial intelligence than others.
  • Publication
    External Finance in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: A Tale of Differences in Vulnerabilities
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-12-04) Kim, Dohan; Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria
    Over the past two decades, many emerging markets and developing economies have been viewed as increasingly resilient to external financial shocks. This paper assesses whether such resilience is broadly shared across emerging markets and developing economies by classifying them into three tiers based on economic size, income level, institutional strength, and financial integration. The analysis shows that first-tier emerging markets and developing economies have improved their external balance sheets and reduced dependence on official support. However, second- and third-tier emerging markets and developing economies have experienced growing external vulnerabilities since the global financial crisis, marked by rising external debt liabilities and declining foreign exchange reserves. Using a range of indicators, including sovereign defaults, arrears, partial defaults, and International Monetary Fund lending, the paper identifies episodes of external financial distress and shows that distress remains widespread among second- and third-tier emerging markets and developing economies. The empirical analysis confirms that key components of the net international investment position—especially external debt and foreign exchange reserves—predict the onset of external financial distress, with institutional quality shaping the impact. Weak institutions amplify risks, while strong institutions mitigate them. These findings highlight the importance of recognizing heterogeneity across emerging markets and developing economies, strengthening institutional quality alongside external balance-sheet management, and rebuilding buffers to safeguard against renewed global financial stress.
  • Publication
    Rigging the Scores: Corruption through Scoring Rule Manipulation in Public Procurement Auctions
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-12-02) Chen, Qianmiao
    Public procurement is highly susceptible to corruption, especially in developing countries. Although open auctions are widely adopted to curb it, this paper finds that corruption remains prevalent even within this procurement format. Procurement officers can collaborate with firms to manipulate scoring rules, ensuring predetermined winners, while corrupt firms submit noncompetitive bids to meet minimum bidder requirements. Using extensive data from Chinese public procurement auctions, the paper introduces model-driven statistical tools to detect such corruption, identifying a corruption rate of 65 percent. A procurement expert audit survey confirms the tools’ reliability, with a 91 percent probability that experts recognize suspicious scoring rules when flagged. Firm-level analysis reveals that local, state-owned, and less productive firms are favored in corrupt auctions. Lastly, the paper explores policy implications. Analysis of the national anti-corruption campaign since 2012 suggests that general investigations may be insufficient to address deeply ingrained corrupt practices. Using counterfactuals based on an estimated structural model, the paper shows that implementing anonymous call-for-tender evaluations could improve social welfare by 10 percent by eliminating suspicious rules and encouraging broader participation.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    How Does Deposit Insurance Affect Bank Risk? Evidence from the Recent Crisis
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-12) Anginer, Deniz; Demirguc-Kunt, Asli; Zhu, Min
    Deposit insurance is widely offered in a number of countries as part of a financial system safety net to promote stability. An unintended consequence of deposit insurance is the reduction in the incentive of depositors to monitor banks, which leads to excessive risk-taking. This paper examines the relation between deposit insurance and bank risk and systemic fragility in the years leading to and during the recent financial crisis. It finds that generous financial safety nets increase bank risk and systemic fragility in the years leading up to the global financial crisis. However, during the crisis, bank risk is lower and systemic stability is greater in countries with deposit insurance coverage. The findings suggest that the "moral hazard effect" of deposit insurance dominates in good times while the "stabilization effect" of deposit insurance dominates in turbulent times. Nevertheless, the overall effect of deposit insurance over the full sample remains negative since the destabilizing effect during normal times is greater in magnitude compared with the stabilizing effect during global turbulence. In addition, the analysis finds that good bank supervision can alleviate the unintended consequences of deposit insurance on bank systemic risk during good times, suggesting that fostering the appropriate incentive framework is very important for ensuring systemic stability.
  • Publication
    How Does Bank Competition Affect Systemic Stability?
    (2012-02-01) Anginer, Deniz; Demirguc-Kunt, Asli; Zhu, Min
    Using bank level measures of competition and co-dependence, the authors show a robust positive relationship between bank competition and systemic stability. Whereas much of the extant literature has focused on the relationship between competition and the absolute level of risk of individual banks, they examine the correlation in the risk taking behavior of banks, hence systemic risk. They find that greater competition encourages banks to take on more diversified risks, making the banking system less fragile to shocks. Examining the impact of the institutional and regulatory environment on systemic stability shows that banking systems are more fragile in countries with weak supervision and private monitoring, with generous deposit insurance and greater government ownership of banks, and public policies that restrict competition. Furthermore, lack of competition has a greater adverse effect on systemic stability in countries with low levels of foreign ownership, weak investor protections, generous safety nets, and where the authorities provide limited guidance for bank asset diversification.
  • Publication
    Republic of Romania : Financial Sector Assessment
    (Washington, DC, 2009-06) World Bank
    This financial sector assessment (FSA) summarizes the key findings and recommendations of the 2008 FSAP update report for Romania. The main findings of the FSAP update are: the financial system entered the crisis well capitalized and with high liquidity buffers, and the four financial sector regulatory authorities have made significant progress in adopting international best practice, including through transposition of European Union (EU) directives, and implementation of many of the recommendations of the 2003 FSAP. While the banking system is currently well capitalized, the rapid deterioration in economic conditions and the depreciation of the leu may put strains on bank capital. The measures to strengthen the system are needed: an ex ante strengthening of capital positions is warranted; the overall exposure of foreign parent banks to Romania should be maintained; banks need to develop effective debt restructuring or workout procedures for household and corporate clients; crisis management coordination should be accelerated; bank resolution powers strengthened; and deposit insurance funding and payout arrangements improved. Some cross-sectoral themes emerge to strengthen the supervisory frameworks, including the need to strengthen the political independence and financial autonomy of the non-bank financial regulators; better cross-sectoral cooperation in supervision of financial groups; further movement toward a more risk-based approach to supervision; better consistency in valuation rules for market instruments; adoption of international financial reporting standards (IFRS) accounting; and in the banking sector, strengthening of the basel two implementation framework. Longer term developmental issues include the need to address obstacles to capital market development, certain risks in insurance, and to ensure sustainability of the pension system reform.
  • Publication
    Macroprudential Policy Framework : A Practice Guide
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014-04-29) Krishnamurti, Damodaran; Lee, Yejin Carol
    This practice guide is primarily intended as a reference and guidance for emerging market economies in their migration to a formal macroprudential policy framework. It relies largely on the existing wisdom, knowledge, and experience and was written with the intention of assisting policy makers (and the World Bank staff working with these authorities) in the implementation of macroprudential policy frameworks in jurisdictions with the following characteristics representative of a typical emerging market and developing economy: 1) a simple and bank-dominated financial system where other financial sector segments are much smaller, but growing; 2) banking supervision function is within the central bank; 3) financial sector regulation/supervision is not integrated; 4) uncertain availability of quality data. A macroprudential policy framework is not a silver bullet for safeguarding financial stability. It is also useful to highlight that a macroprudential policy framework cannot take the place of other public policy frameworks. While pursuing macroprudential policy to build a more resilient financial system, authorities should also take into consideration the significant financial development needs that may exist in their respective jurisdictions. This Practice Guide has been structured in a logical sequence that mirrors implementation. The second and third sections are laid out to clarify and provide some context to the concept of a macroprudential approach to supervision and discuss the institutional framework. The fourth and fifth sections deal with the operational aspects of macroprudential policy framework that are timely detection of systemic risks using early warning systems and addressing the buildup of systemic risks with macroprudential policy instruments.
  • Publication
    Financial Sector Assessment Program : Brazil - Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-04) International Monetary Fund; World Bank
    Brazil has a well-defined banking supervision process supported by a legal framework that grants the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) broad enforcement powers for corrective action and weak bank resolution. This assessment of the Basel Core Principles (BCP) for effective supervision was conducted from February 27 through March 20, 2012. As agreed with the authorities, the supervisory framework was assessed against the BCP methodology issued by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) in October 2006. In self-assessment the authorities addressed both essential and additional criteria and the assessors based their conclusions on compliance with both criteria. The last BCP assessment was conducted in 2002, however, the grading is not comparable to this assessment as the principles and methodology were revised in 2006. Although the BCB operates on an independent mode, there are amendments to Law 4595-1964 (banking law) that will aid in protecting the continuation of the operational independence.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Luna-Bazaldua, Diego; Levin, Victoria; Liberman, Julia; Gala, Priyal Mukesh
    This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.
  • Publication
    Morocco Economic Update, Winter 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03) World Bank
    Despite the drought causing a modest deceleration of overall GDP growth to 3.2 percent, the Moroccan economy has exhibited some encouraging trends in 2024. Non-agricultural growth has accelerated to an estimated 3.8 percent, driven by a revitalized industrial sector and a rebound in gross capital formation. Inflation has dropped below 1 percent, allowing Bank al-Maghrib to begin easing its monetary policy. While rural labor markets remain depressed, the economy has added close to 162,000 jobs in urban areas. Morocco’s external position remains strong overall, with a moderate current account deficit largely financed by growing foreign direct investment inflows, underpinned by solid investor confidence indicators. Despite significant spending pressures, the debt-to-GDP ratio is slowly declining.
  • Publication
    Argentina Country Climate and Development Report
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11) World Bank Group
    The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.
  • Publication
    Unlocking Opportunities
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-02) Pankratova, Ekaterina; Ajwad, Mohamed Ihsan; Alrayess, Dana Jasmine; Loots, Sonja; Duell, Nikola; de Moraes, Gael
    Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 promotes women’s skill development and their advancement in the labor market. Since 2017, Saudi Arabia has seen the fastest progress in reducing barriers to women’s access to labor markets by advancing reforms regarding guardianship, mobility, protection of women in the workplace, entrepreneurship and access to financing, and retirement age. One of its approaches has been to empower women through upskilling, training, and lifelong learning. In recent years, many Saudi women have entered the labor market; however, further interventions are necessary to fully realize the contribution women can make to economic and social advancement. Several studies around the world have shown that women’s participation in vocational education and training has a direct relationship with Labor force participation (LFP). In recent years, Saudi Arabia has reformed its Technical and vocational education and training (TVET) system. These reforms have broadened TVET institutions’ educational offerings for women and promoted TVET as a viable pathway to the labor market. Despite this progress, persistent challenges remain. Women’s LFP rates in all age groups remain just slightly above half of those for men, and women who graduate from postsecondary vocational educational institutions still face considerable disadvantages in finding a job, compared to their male peers. Women’s participation in TVET plays an important role in working toward the national strategic goals set out in Vision 2030. This report takes stock of Saudi Arabia’s achievements in enabling women to develop skills, identifies remaining challenges, and presents international best practices on how to address gender barriers in TVET, upskilling, and lifelong learning. The report concludes by identifying key areas of strategic policy interventions that can further gender equity within the country’s skills-development system.
  • Publication
    Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Spring 2025: Accelerating Growth through Entrepreneurship, Technology Adoption, and Innovation
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-23) Belacin, Matias; Iacovone, Leonardo; Izvorski, Ivailo; Kasyanenko, Sergiy
    Business dynamism and economic growth in Europe and Central Asia have weakened since the late 2000s, with productivity growth driven largely by resource reallocation between firms and sectors rather than innovation. To move up the value chain, countries need to facilitate technology adoption, stronger domestic competition, and firm-level innovation to build a more dynamic private sector. Governments should move beyond broad support for small- and medium-sized enterprises and focus on enabling the most productive firms to expand and compete globally. Strengthening competition policies, reducing the presence of state-owned enterprises, and ensuring fair market access are crucial. Limited availability of long-term financing and risk capital hinders firm growth and innovation. Economic disruptions are a shock in the short term, but they provide an opportunity for implementing enterprise and structural reforms, all of which are essential for creating better-paying jobs and helping countries in the region to achieve high-income status.