Publication: What Does Debt Relief Do for Development? Evidence from India’s Bailout for Rural Households
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2016-10
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2019-01-03
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This paper studies the impact of debt relief, using a natural experiment arising from India's "Agricultural Debt Waiver and Debt Relief Scheme," one of the largest household-level debt relief initiatives in history. I find that debt relief has a substantial impact on household balance sheets, but does not affect savings, consumption and investment, as predicted by theories of debt overhang or balance sheet distress. Instead, debt relief leads to greater reliance on informal credit, reduced investment, and lower agricultural productivity. Consistent with moral hazard generated by the bailout, beneficiaries are significantly less concerned about the reputational consequences of future default.
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Publication What Does Debt Relief Do for Development? Evidence from India’s Bailout Program for Highly-Indebted Rural Households(2012-11)This paper studies the impact of a large debt relief program, intended to attenuate investment constraints among highly-indebted households in rural India. It isolates the causal effect of bankruptcy-like debt relief settlements using a natural experiment arising from India's Debt Relief Program for Small and Marginal Farmers -- one of the largest debt relief initiatives in history. The analysis shows that debt relief has a persistent effect on the level of household debt, but does not increase investment and productivity as predicted by theories of debt overhang. Instead, the anticipation of future credit constraints leads to a greater reliance on informal financing, lower investment and a decline in productivity among bailout recipients. The results suggest that one-time settlements may be insufficient to incentivize new investment, but can have significant real effects through their impact on borrower expectations.Publication The Economic Effects of a Borrower Bailout : Evidence from an Emerging Market(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-11)This paper studies the credit market implications and real effects of one the largest borrower bailout programs in history, enacted by the government of India against the backdrop of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The study finds that the stimulus program had no effect on productivity, wages, or consumption, but led to significant changes in credit allocation and an increase in defaults. Post-program loan performance declines faster in districts with greater exposure to the program, an effect that is not driven by greater risk-taking of banks. 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The model is used to guide the review of the evidence on various relief policies, such as debt forbearance, debt forgiveness, and personal bankruptcy. The paper additionally presents survey evidence from a population of microfinance and bank borrowers with recent exposure to debt relief. The results highlight that an important downside of discretionary debt relief policies, which are common in developing countries, is their potential to affect borrower expectations and create moral hazard. The development of legal bankruptcy institutions that offer a rules-based avenue to discharge unsustainable debts is a promising path to alleviate the credit market inefficiencies that have often accompanied debt relief initiatives in developing economies.Publication Incentivizing Calculated Risk-Taking : Evidence from an Experiment with Commercial Bank Loan Officers(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-07)This paper uses a series of experiments with commercial bank loan officers to test the effect of performance incentives on risk-assessment and lending decisions. The paper first shows that, while high-powered incentives lead to greater screening effort and more profitable lending, their power is muted by both deferred compensation and the limited liability typically enjoyed by loan officers. Second, the paper presents direct evidence that incentive contracts distort judgment and beliefs, even among trained professionals with many years of experience. 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