Publication: Power to the Fiscal? An Exploration of the Use of Credit Ratings to Estimate the Expected Cost of a Guarantee of a Power-Purchase Agreement
Loading...
Published
2020-06
ISSN
Date
2020-06-11
Author(s)
Aslan, Cigdem
Editor(s)
Abstract
Ministries of finance are often asked to guarantee a state-owned electricity utility's payments to an independent power producer under a power-purchase agreement. To decide whether to grant the guarantee, the ministry should have at least a rough estimate of the guarantee's expected cost. Making use of an analogy between a power-purchase agreement and a debt contract, this paper shows how the ministry can get such an estimate by applying a method developed to estimate the expected cost of debt guarantees. An estimate of the probability of the utility's not being able to meet its obligations under the power-purchase agreement can be derived from the utility's actual or estimated credit rating in the absence of government support. The government's expected payments under the guarantee can then be estimated by multiplying the utility's payments under the power-purchase agreement by this probability. The estimates produced by the method will be imprecise, but the method may be easier to apply than alternative methods, and an imprecise estimate may be better for policy makers than no estimate.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Aslan, Cigdem; Irwin, Tim. 2020. Power to the Fiscal? An Exploration of the Use of Credit Ratings to Estimate the Expected Cost of a Guarantee of a Power-Purchase Agreement. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9271. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33873 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05)Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.Publication The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10)This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.Publication The Marshall Plan: Then and Now(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-14)This paper is a product of the Development Policy Team, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Geopolitical Risks and Trade(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-23)This paper studies the impact of geopolitical risks on international trade, using the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) and an empirical gravity model. The impact of spikes in geopolitical risk on trade is negative, strong, and heterogeneous across sectors. The findings show that increases in geopolitical risk reduce trade by about 30 to 40 percent. These effects are equivalent to an increase of global tariffs of up to 14 percent. Services trade is most vulnerable to geopolitical risks, followed by agriculture, and the impact on manufacturing trade is moderate. These negative effects are partially mitigated by cultural and geographic proximity, as well as by the presence of trade agreements.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Power Purchase Agreements for Small Power Producers(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-11)Five Asian nations, India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam began designing or instituting Small Power Producer (SPP) programs in the mid-1990s to support energy development jointly with the private sector. This note draws on important markers and lessons for other countries on how to implement similar programs based on these experiences. While all Asian programs demonstrate certain commonalities due to fundamental legal relationships, each experience has been tailored to local conditions and requirements. Some have introduced innovative bidding, competitive, or incentive structures. The result is a rich palette of experience with small power projects in Asia.Publication Centralized Purchasing Arrangements(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2006-03-01)By examining the broad range of variations in design and implementation of energy trading models around the world, our evaluation showed that sometimes the pure Single Buyer is actually the only alternative, particularly in distressed power systems. Even under dire circumstances, it is still possible to minimize many of its drawbacks with a careful design at the outset. It is essential to procure energy competitively and build flexible contractual and institutional arrangements that envisage a smooth transition towards a more competitive power sector, when conditions permit. The results of this study also indicate that it is neither necessary nor desirable to grant a de jure monopoly status to a Single Buyer, even at the early stages of power sector reform. Such a monopoly may backfire, by creating future rigidities that will defeat the main objectives of the reform process. Experiences have shown that more often than not, Single Buyer models have resulted in unaffordable prices, lack of transparency, and virtually little or no competition in power generation.Publication More Power to India : The Challenge of Electricity Distribution(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014-06-18)This report assesses progress in implementing the government of India's power sector reform agenda and examines the performance of the sector along different dimensions. India has emphasized that an efficient, resilient, and financially robust power sector is essential for growth and poverty reduction. Almost all investment-climate surveys point to poor availability and quality of power as critical constraints to commercial and manufacturing activity and national competitiveness. Further, more than 300 million Indians live without electricity, and those with power must cope with unreliable supply, pointing to huge unsatisfied demand and restricted consumer welfare. This report reviews the evolution of the Indian power sector since the landmark Electricity Act of 2003, with a focus on distribution as key to the performance and viability of the sector. While all three segments of the power sector (generation, transmission, and distribution) are important, revenues originate with the customer at distribution, so subpar performance there hurts the entire value chain. Persistent operational and financial shortcomings in distribution have repeatedly led to central bailouts for the whole sector, even though power is a concurrent subject under the Indian constitution and distribution is almost entirely under state control. Ominously, the recent sharp increase in private investment and market borrowing means power sector difficulties are more likely to spill over to lenders and affect the broader financial sector. Government-initiated reform efforts first focused on the generation and transmission segments, reflecting the urgent need for adding capacity and evacuating it and the complexity of issues to be addressed at the consumer interface. Consequently, distribution improvements have lagged, but it is now clear that they need to be a priority. This report thus analyzes the multiple sources of weakness in distribution and identifies the key challenges to improving performance in the short and medium term. The report is aimed at policy makers and government officials, academics, and civil society in the fields of energy, governance, and infrastructure economics and finance, as well as private investors and lenders in the energy arena.Publication India Power Sector Diagnostic Review : More Power to India - The Challenge of Distribution(Washington, DC, 2014-06-12)This report reviews the evolution of the Indian power sector since the landmark Electricity Act of 2003 (EA 2003, or EA), with a focus on distribution as key to performance and viability of the sector. While all three segments of the power sector generation, transmission, and distribution are important, revenues originate with the customer at distribution, so subpar performance there hurts the entire value chain. Persistent operational and financial shortcomings in distribution have repeatedly led to central bailouts for the whole sector, even though power is a concurrent 1 subject under the Indian constitution and distribution is almost entirely under state control. Ominously, the recent sharp increase in private investment and market borrowing means power sector difficulties are more likely to spill over to lenders and affect the broader financial sector. Government-initiated reform efforts first focused on the generation and transmission segments, reflecting the urgent need for adding capacity and the complexity of issues to be addressed at the consumer interface. Consequently, distribution improvements have lagged, but it is now clear that they need to be a priority. This report thus analyzes the multiple sources of weakness in distribution and identifies the key challenges to improving performance in the short and medium term.Publication Development of a Regional Power Market in the Greater Mekong Sub-Region : Compatibility of Regulatory Systems and Pricing Principles(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2001-12)A 1999 study by the Bank, which summarized the unprecedented opportunity for economic, and environmental benefits for individual countries, and the entire Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) associated with cross-border power trade, concluded that a full trade scenario, could yield significant savings over the next two decades, even before quantifying substantial environmental benefits. Based on these conclusions, GMS member countries were surveyed (attached as an appendix), and, this report compares the status of institutional/regulatory, and commercial policies across the region, to provide background information. Specifically, the focus is on the compatibility of national regulatory systems, especially for wheeling; the compatibility of pricing principles at both production, and transmission; and, the potential barriers to enhanced trade, which are revealed in this review. Section 2 provides a brief review of on-going reforms in member countries. Section 3 compares progress with respect to key regulatory, and commercial issues (particularly pricing) most critical to power trade, noting barriers to expanded power trade revealed through the country comparisons.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Conducting Classroom Observations(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-07)The “Stallings Classroom Snapshot” instrument, technically called the “Stanford Research Institute Classroom Observation System”, was developed by Professor Jane Stallings for research on the efficiency and quality of basic education teachers in the United States in the 1970s. (Stallings, 1977; Stallings and Mohlman, 1988). The Stallings instrument generates robust quantitative data on the interaction of teachers and students in the classroom, with a high degree of inter-rater reliability (0.8 or higher) among observers with relatively limited training, which makes it suitable for large-scale samples in developing country settings. (Jukes, 2006; Abadzi, 2007; DeStefano et al, 2010; Schuh-Moore et al, 2010). The instrument is language and curriculum-neutral, so results are directly comparable across different types of schools and country contexts, and a growing body of comparative country data from the US and developing countries is available. Use of the Stallings classroom snapshot in more than seven countries in the Latin America and the Caribbean region in recent years has generated a global data base of more than 20,000 different classroom observations in more than 3,600 schools. A public use online database is being created on the World Bank/SIEF (Strategic Impact Evaluation Fund) website. These data provide valuable reference benchmarks for any country or education system that uses the Stallings instrument following the protocol outlined in this guide.Publication Services Unbound(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-09)Services are a new force for innovation, trade, and growth in East Asia and Pacific. The dramatic diffusion of digital technologies and partial policy reforms in services--from finance, communication, and transport to retail, health, and education--is transforming these economies. The result is higher productivity and changing jobs in the services sector, as well as in the manufacturing sectors that use these services. A region that has thrived through openness to trade and investment in manufacturing still maintains innovation-inhibiting barriers to entry and competition in key services sectors. 'Services Unbound: Digital Technologies and Policy Reform in East Asia and Pacific' makes the case for deeper domestic reforms and greater international cooperation to unleash a virtuous cycle of increased economic opportunity and enhanced human capacity that would power development in the region.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.