Publication: How Subjective Beliefs about HIV Infection Affect Life-Cycle Fertility : Evidence from Rural Malawi
Date
2013-01
ISSN
Published
2013-01
Author(s)
Abstract
This paper studies the effect of
subjective beliefs about HIV infection on fertility
decisions in a context of high HIV prevalence and simulates
the impact of different policy interventions, such as HIV
testing programs and prevention of mother-to-child
transmission, on fertility and child mortality. It develops
a model of women's life-cycle, in which women make
sequential fertility decisions. Expectations about the life
horizon and child survival depend on women's perceived
exposure to HIV infection, which is allowed to differ from
the actual exposure. In the model, women form beliefs about
their HIV status and about their own and their
children's survival in future periods. Women update
their beliefs with survival to each additional period as
well as when their HIV status is revealed by an HIV test.
Model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood with
longitudinal data from the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational
Change Project, which contain family rosters, information on
HIV testing, and measures of subjective beliefs about own
HIV status. The model successfully fits the fertility
patterns in the data, as well as the distribution of
reported beliefs about own HIV status. The analysis uses the
model to assess the effect of HIV on fertility by simulating
behavior in an environment without HIV. The results show
that the presence of HIV reduces the average number of
births a woman has during her life-cycle by 0.15. The paper
also finds that HIV testing can reduce the fertility of
infected women, leading to a reduction of child mortality
and orphan-hood.
Citation
“Shapira, Gil. 2013. How Subjective Beliefs about HIV Infection Affect Life-Cycle Fertility : Evidence from Rural Malawi. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6343. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/0fe3636d-6594-531d-9924-fc30c0eeed7b License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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