Publication:
Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2021: Lebanon Sinking (to the Top 3)

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dc.contributor.authorWorld Bank
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-01T20:43:12Z
dc.date.available2021-06-01T20:43:12Z
dc.date.issued2021-05-31
dc.description.abstractThe Lebanon financial and economic crisis is likely to rank in the top 10, possibly top three, most severe crises episodes globally since the mid-nineteenth century. This is a conclusion of the Spring 2021 Lebanon economic monitor (LEM) in which the Lebanon crisis is contrasted with the most severe global crises episodes as observed by Reinhart and Rogoff over the 1857-2013 period. The Lebanon economic monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. Monetary and financial turmoil are driving crisis conditions, more palpably through interactions between the exchange rate, narrow money, and inflation. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is estimated to have contracted by 20.3 percent in 2020, on the back of a 6.7 percent contraction in 2019. The deliberate depression has further undermined already weak public services via two effects: (i) it has significantly increased poverty rates expanding the demography that is not able to afford private substitutable (the way citizens had previously adapted to abysmal quality of public services), and are thus more dependent on public services; and (ii) threatens financial viability and basic operability of the sector by raising its costs and lowering its revenues. Lebanon urgently needs to adopt and implement a credible, comprehensive, and coordinated macro-financial stability strategy, within a medium-term macro-fiscal framework. This strategy will be based on: (i) a debt restructuring program that will achieve short-term fiscal space and medium-term debt sustainability; (ii) comprehensively restructuring the financial sector in order to regain solvency of the banking sector; (iii) adopting a new monetary policy framework that will regain confidence and stability in the exchange rate; (iv) a phased fiscal adjustment aimed at regaining confidence in fiscal policy; (v) growth enhancing reforms; and (vi) enhanced social protection.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/394741622469174252/Lebanon-Economic-Monitor-Lebanon-Sinking-to-the-Top-3
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/35626
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/35626
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectFRAGILE AND CONFLICT AFFECTED STATES
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectFISCAL TRENDS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SECTOR
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectDEBT
dc.subjectPUBLIC SERVICE DELIVERY
dc.subjectSUBSIDY REFORM
dc.subjectELECTRICITY
dc.subjectWATER AND SANITATION
dc.subjectEDUCATION
dc.titleLebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2021en
dc.title.subtitleLebanon Sinking (to the Top 3)en
dc.typeReporten
dc.typeRapportfr
dc.typeInformees
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleLebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2021
okr.date.disclosure2021-05-31
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-07T12:31:38.109709Z
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work::Economic Updates and Modeling
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/394741622469174252/Lebanon-Economic-Monitor-Lebanon-Sinking-to-the-Top-3
okr.guid394741622469174252
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b08864ae9f_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum33124632
okr.identifier.report159712
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/394741622469174252/pdf/Lebanon-Economic-Monitor-Lebanon-Sinking-to-the-Top-3.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeMiddle East and North Africa
okr.region.countryLebanon
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Debt Markets
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Fiscal & Monetary Policy
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Inequality
okr.unitEFI-MNA-MTI-MacroFiscal-1 (EMNM1)
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