Publication: The Mini-Integrated Macroeconomic Model for Poverty Analysis : A Framework for Analyzing the Unemployment and Poverty Effects of Fiscal and Labor Market Reforms
Loading...
Published
2003-05
ISSN
Date
2014-05-09
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The author describes a specialized and less data-intensive version of the Integrated Macroeconomic Model for Poverty Analysis (IMMPA) developed by Agenor, Izquierdo, and Fofack (2003) and Agenor, Fernandes, Haddad, and van der Mensbrugghe (2002). The mini-IMMPA focuses only on the "real" side but it offers a more detailed treatment of the labor market (by accounting, for instance, for public education, employment subsidies, and job security provisions) and the tax structure. Simulations of a cut in payroll taxes on unskilled labor show the importance of accounting for the fiscal implications of labor market reforms when assessing their effects on unemployment and poverty.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Agenor, Pierre-Richard. 2003. The Mini-Integrated Macroeconomic Model for Poverty Analysis : A Framework for Analyzing the Unemployment and Poverty Effects of Fiscal and Labor Market Reforms. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 3067. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18218 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05)Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.Publication The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10)This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.Publication The Marshall Plan: Then and Now(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-14)This paper is a product of the Development Policy Team, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication It’s Not (Just) the Tariffs: Rethinking Non-Tariff Measures in a Fragmented Global Economy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-22)As tariffs have declined, non-tariff measures (NTMs) have become central to trade policy, especially in high-income countries and regulated sectors like food and green technologies. Although NTMs may serve legitimate goals, they could also sort countries and firms into or out of markets based on compliance capacity and differences in product mix. Documenting recent advances in the estimation of ad valorem equivalents (AVEs), this paper uncovers new patterns of use and exposure of NTMs. High-income countries rely more heavily on NTMs relative to tariffs, while low- and middle-income countries face steeper AVEs on their exports. Firm-level evidence shows that NTMs disproportionately affect smaller firms, leading to market exit and concentration. Poorly designed NTMs can harm productivity and welfare, while coordinated, capacity-aware use can deliver inclusive outcomes. Policy design, transparency, and diagnostics must evolve to reflect the growing role—and risks—of NTMs in a fragmented global trade landscape.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Linking Representative Household Models with Household Surveys for Poverty Analysis: A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies(World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2004-06)The authors compare three approaches to linking representative-household macro models with micro household income data in terms of their implications for measuring the poverty and distributional effects of policy shocks. These approaches are a simple micro-accounting method, an extension of that method to account for changes in employment structure, and the Beta distribution approach. Even though in the authors simulation exercises the three methods do not lead to fundamentally different results in absolute terms, they show that potential differences in the measurement of distributional and poverty effects of policy shocks can be very large.Publication Disinflation, Fiscal Sustainability, and Labor Market Adjustment in Turkey(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-01)This paper analyzes the effects of monetary policy and fiscal adjustment on output and unemployment in Turkey. The model on which the analysis is based accounts for rural-urban migration, a large urban informal sector, flexible exchange rates, a dollarized banking system, and interactions between default risk on government liabilities, credibility, and inflation expectations. The short- and long-run effects of a rise in official interest rates and tax increases are analyzed. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the link between default risk and credibility in understanding the real and financial effects of macroeconomic adjustment.Publication Labor Market Reforms, Growth, and Unemployment in Labor-Exporting Countries in the Middle East and North Africa(World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2004-01)This paper studies the impact of labor market policies on growth and unemployment in labor-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa. The analysis is based on a framework that captures many of the main features of the labor market in these countries. We conduct a variety of policy experiments, including a reduction in payroll taxation, cuts in public sector wages and employment, an increase in employment subsidies, a reduction in trade unions' bargaining power, and a composite reform program. Our key message is that to foster broad-based growth and job creation in the region, labor market reforms must not be viewed in isolation but rather as a component of a comprehensive program of structural reforms.Publication Distributions in Motion : Economic Growth, Inequality, and Poverty Dynamics(2010-09)The joint determination of aggregate economic growth and distributional change has been studied empirically from at least three different perspectives. A macroeconomic approach that relies on cross-country data on poverty, inequality, and growth rates has generated some interesting stylized facts about the correlations between these variables, but has not shed much light on the underlying determinants. "Meso-" and microeconomic approaches have fared somewhat better. The microeconomic approach, in particular, builds on the observation that growth, changes in poverty, and changes in inequality are simply different aggregations of information on the incidence of economic growth along the income distribution. This paper reviews the evolution of attempts to understand the nature of growth incidence curves, from the statistical decompositions associated with generalizations of the Oaxaca-Blinder method, to more recent efforts to generate "economically consistent" counterfactuals, drawing on structural, reduced-form, and computable general equilibrium models.Publication Do Remittances Have a Flip Side? A General Equilibrium Analysis of Remittances, Labor Supply Responses, and Policy Options for Jamaica(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-03)Econometric analysis has established a negative relationship between labor supply and remittances in Jamaica. The authors incorporate this ex-post evidence in a general equilibrium model to investigate economywide effects of increased remittance inflows. In this model, remittances reduce labor force participation by increasing the reservation wages of recipients. This exacerbates the real exchange rate appreciation, hurting Jamaica's export base and small manufacturing import-competing sector. Within the narrow margins of maneuver of a highly indebted government, the authors show that a revenue-neutral policy response of a simultaneous reduction in payroll taxes and increase in sales taxes can effectively counteract these potentially negative effects of remittances.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Mining Royalties : A Global Study of Their Impact on Investors, Government, and Civil Society(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2006)Mineral sector regulatory and fiscal systems have been undergoing major reforms across the globe. This book focuses on information and analysis relating to mineral royalties. It provides a general discussion of the concepts behind mining taxation, a guide to royalties, examples of royalty calculations and the ways in which these interact with other forms of taxation, as well as financial effects on investments under varying conditions. Primary information includes royalty legislation from over forty nations. The book discusses implications for investors and governments of various tax regimes and provides specific country case examples. A chapter is included on transparency, governance, and management of revenue streams. The appendices, in the second volume, contain brief summaries and selected statutes relating to royalties in a broad cross-section of nations around the world; sample spreadsheets of the results of mine models that were analyzed; and examples of administrative and distributional approaches to collecting royalties.Publication International Financial Reporting Standards : A Practical Guide, 5th Edition(World Bank, 2009)The publication of this fifth edition coincides with the convergence in accounting standards that has been a feature of the international landscape since the global financial crisis of 1998. The events of that year prompted several international organizations, including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, to launch a cooperative initiative to strengthen the global financial architecture and to seek a longer-term solution to the lack of transparency in financial information. A conscious decision has been made to focus on the needs of executives and financial analysts in the private and public sectors who might not have a strong accounting background. This publication summarizes each standard so managers and analysts can quickly obtain a broad overview of the key issues. Detailed discussion of certain topics has been excluded to maintain the overall objective of providing a useful tool to managers and financial analysts. In addition to the short summaries, most chapters contain basic examples that emphasize the practical application of some key concepts in a particular standard. This text provides the tools to enable an executive without a technical accounting background to: (1) participate in an informed manner in discussions relating to the appropriateness or application of a particular standard in a given situation, and (2) evaluate the effect that the application of the principles of a given standard will have on the financial results and position of a division or of an entire enterprise.Publication Timor-Leste Economic Report, December 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-12)The global economy continues to face steep challenges, but Timor-Leste’s economy is slowly recovering. Nevertheless, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has not returned to pre-pandemic levels. Consumer price inflation reached 7.9 percent yoy in August 2022, one of the highest in the East Asia Pacific region. The real effective exchange rate (REER) has appreciated by about 10 percent since the first quarter of 2021. Enhancing productive capabilities through structural reforms and improving quality of public spending hold the key for accelerating and sustaining economic development. Extending the life of petroleum fund through fiscal consolidation is essential to delay the fiscal cliff and ensure the perpetuation of government spending to support economic growth. Despite receding impact of the pandemic, the level of government spending has not returned to the pre-COVID 19 levels.Publication Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-07)As of January 2022, a total of 3,856 social protection and labor measures were planned or implemented by 223 economies. This constitutes a net increase of 523 measures, or 15.6 percent since the last update in May 2021. While noteworthy, such increase is the lowest among net additions observed over previous semesters. In fact, the global pace of measures’ introduction over January 2020-January 2022 has been slowing down. This report focuses on the real-time review of country measures in terms of social protection and job responses to Coronavirus (COVID-19).Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10)The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.