Publication: Thailand Economic Monitor, December 2012
Loading...
Published
2012-12
ISSN
Date
2017-06-13
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The Thai economy in 2012 rebounded from the severe floods but continues to be affected by the slowdown in the global economy. Real GDP in 2012 is projected to grow by 4.7 percent supported by the rebound in household consumption and greater investments by both the private and public sectors as part of flood rehabilitation and the government s consumption-stimulating measures. The economy is projected to grow by 5 percent in 2013 as manufacturing production fully recovers and the global economy sees a modest recovery. Exports in 2013 are therefore expected to grow by 5.5 percent compared to only 3.6 percent in 2012. Budget deficit will be 2.5 percent of GDP for FY2013 plus additional off-budget spending for water resource management projects in FY2013. Public debt is estimated to be close to 50 percent of GDP in 2013. The paddy pledging scheme is estimated to cost around 3.5 percent of GDP each year, while the actual losses will be realized once the rice stocks are sold. The minimum wages have been raised by 40 percent nation-wide in 2012 and will be raised to a uniform rate of THB300 per day. Developing higher skills is imperative for higher incomes, living standards, and for Thailand to grow sustainably and inclusively. Thailand can do better in enabling the poor and vulnerable groups to participate in productive economic activities by pursuing a coordinated approach between universal and targeted social policy.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2012. Thailand Economic Monitor, December 2012. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27085 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Burkina Faso - Promoting Growth, Competitiveness and Diversification : Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 1. Main Report(Washington, DC, 2010-09)The main conclusion of Country Economic Memorandum is that the previous model of extensive growth has now exhausted its potential and must be renewed. Given the existing population dynamics, low environmental tolerance due to its Sahelian climate and competition forces imposed due to its open economy, Burkina Faso is heavily investing in growth based on increased productivity to overcome its low level of initial human capital, capacity constraints and regulation. To help define the new model of development of Burkina Faso, the Country Economic Memorandum is exploring growth based on productivity both at macro-, meso-economic or sectoral, micro and institutional levels only. It also assesses the sustainability of growth in the human, demographic, financial, fiscal and physical infrastructure. Wherever possible, it evaluates the performance of previous development programs and provides diagnostics on problems. It analyzes the current situation in terms of challenges and opportunities. Several major constraints on growth have been identified and the Memorandum offers practical ways to reduce or mitigate them. These constraints are: i. The frequency of exogenous shocks on agriculture in Burkina Faso, especially cotton, significantly slows the socio-economic development; ii. The real appreciation of the exchange rate has eroded the price competitiveness; iii. The country's attractiveness to foreign direct investment, despite significant progress in the business environment, limited growth potential; iv. The high fertility rates impede growth per capita and social development beginning with human capital; v. Environmental constraints limit the extensive growth of agriculture, while food security is always a challenge for human development; vi. The vulnerability of poor households prevents them from truly engaging in productive economic activities; vii. Constraints on institutional and human capacities reduce the effectiveness of public policies. The first volume of the Memorandum emphasizes the need for Burkina Faso to consider the macroeconomic and microeconomic constraints to growth and competitiveness, draws attention to the low sophistication of its exports and suggests policy instruments to facilitate the promotion of export and investment led by the private sector. The second volume emphasizes (i) the need for appropriate choices to ensure the viability of the cotton sector, (ii) the development of supply chains to achieve food security, growth and import substitution, (iii) the important role in the mining sector for growth, with good revenue management, and finally (iv) the potential of tourism as an industry will depend on the service quality improvements and the accommodation capacity and infrastructure. The third volume identifies the actions necessary to (i) address the issues of demographic change through better information, education and communication campaigns to bring about behavioral changes, (ii) develop instruments of risk management to manage the risks of economic, social, health, natural and food security, (iii) improve the country's access to regional and international markets, better connections to regional transport infrastructure, electricity, and telecommunications, water services and improved irrigation systems, (iv) exploiting the financial intermediation by new mechanisms of access to credit, reform the financial sector and institutional capacity building in financial management and risk in the business sector, and (v) create and use the budget by prioritizing expenditures, ensuring the collection of revenue and increasing the flow of aid.Publication Taking Stock, December 2013(Hanoi, 2013-12)Macroeconomic stability in Vietnam is improving, underpinned by moderating inflation and strengthening external accounts. Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation has stabilized, aided by subdued credit growth and easing of food price increases. The decline in core inflation has been more gradual. Pressure on the Vietnamese currency has also eased substantially. A sustained recovery in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth remains hampered however by slow-moving structural reforms and global uncertainty. With rising pressures on the budget, the government is faced with some crucial fiscal policy choices, as it seeks to balance the objectives of economic expansion and macroeconomic stability. This paper explores crucial issues such as trade facilitation, competitiveness and growth, poverty and inequality, corruption and economic growth in Vietnam, the external economic environment, and recent economic developments in Vietnam.Publication Thailand Economic Monitor, April - June 2009(Bangkok, 2009)A solid financial armor could not protect Thailand against the impact of the global financial crisis on its real economy. Despite a sound banking system and low external vulnerabilities, the Thai economy contracted 5.7 percent between October 2008 and March 2009, as the magnitude and speed of the contraction in foreign demand, and resulting shock to the real economy, has been greater than anticipated. There continues to be little impact of the global financial crisis on Thailand's banks: liquidity remained adequate as financial institutions did not face solvency concerns given their adequate capitalization and lack of exposure to 'toxic' assets or risky derivative contracts. The combination of a sound financial sector, low external roll-over and balance-of-payment financing requirements, and, more recently, large current account surpluses, has led to capital inflows, build-up in reserves and an appreciation of the Baht relative to other currencies in the region. However, the impact of the global crisis on the real sector was far more severe than expected. Export volumes contracted by 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared to the World Bank's forecast in December of a 3.0 percent expansion. Exports contracted a further 16 percent in the first quarter of 2009. The aggravation of Thailand's political crisis, which had been dampening investor and consumer confidence since 2006, compounded the shock to the real economy. As a result, real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009 after 38 quarters of growth, and is expected to contract for 2009 as a whole, the first annual contraction since the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998.Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2010, Volume 1 : Emerging Stronger from the Crisis(World Bank, 2010)East Asia has recovered from the economic and financial crisis. Largely thanks to China, the region's output, exports and employment have mostly returned to the levels before the crisis. Leading the global economy, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in developing East Asia is poised to rise to 8.7 percent in 2010 after slowing from 8.5 percent in 2008 to 7.0 percent in 2009. This report also identifies two common regional agenda items for the medium term. First, the process of regional integration, driven by Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) commitments to creating a single economic area, will need to continue. Deeper regional economic integration is now even more important, given prospects for slower growth in advanced economies. Behind-the-border trade barriers must be lowered, even in the face of incipient protectionist pressures around the world, including in the region. Deeper integration will encourage agglomeration economies and intra-industry trade, support sustainable urbanization, lower costs, and increase international competitiveness. Second, addressing climate change is high priority in the region. Mitigation measures must be strengthened to improve land and water use, bolster energy efficiency and conservation, and foster a much larger role for renewable sources of energy. Moreover, with investment rates in the region higher than in developed countries, there is scope for East Asia to move rapidly to the "green" technology frontier. Such a move will give the region a competitive advantage in a sector poised for rapid global growth. At the same time, the adaptation agenda will require enhancing the region's cooperation and disaster risk management frameworks. Institutional and regulatory frameworks for improving the resiliency of economic activity, reducing drought and flood risk, and managing coastal areas and small islands, are critically needed.Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2011, Volume 1 : Securing the Present, Shaping the Future(Washington, DC, 2011-03)Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in East Asia has been moderating after a sharp rebound from the global crisis. The slowdown in growth since mid-2010, even though smaller than earlier projected, has occurred despite a stronger-than-expected recovery in high-income economies and only gradual withdrawal of the monetary and fiscal stimulus across the region. We project real GDP growth will settle to about 8 percent in 2011 and 2012 from about 9.6 percent in 2010. Inflation has become the key short-run challenge for the authorities in the region, complicated by a surge in portfolio capital inflows and rapidly increasing food and commodity prices that hit low-income households disproportionately. For many middle-income countries in East Asia, lowering inflation presents difficult policy choices. Most have eschewed the use of capital controls, and allowing exchange rates to appreciate may protect against importing inflation but jeopardizes international competitiveness. The sharp increase in commodity prices portends increased volatility for the foreseeable future. All commodity prices are on an upswing, some either at all-time highs or at levels exceeding those reached only two years ago. These latest price developments continue the trend that began earlier this decade of a steady climb in real commodity prices, interrupting a decade-long downward trend in the 1990s. Policies to provide incentives and ensure the investment needed to help develop new and greener energy sources, notably with low-carbon emissions and much improved energy efficiency should be a priority for governments in the region. Output growth throughout developing East Asia moderated in the second half of 2010 but was still surprisingly strong. This positive outcome reflected sustained monetary and fiscal stimulus measures and stronger growth in demand abroad, both of which partly offset the return of capacity utilization to pre-crisis levels. Real GDP growth in developing East Asia and Pacific amounted to 9.6 percent for 2010 as a whole 0.7 percentage points higher than our estimate in November 2010.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Error: Could not load results for 'https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/item/relateditemlistconfigs/0a82679d-1be7-5b1f-a940-6d396367bc84_downloads/itemlist'.