Publication: Thailand Economic Monitor, December 2012
Loading...
Date
2012-12
ISSN
Published
2012-12
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The Thai economy in 2012 rebounded from the severe floods but continues to be affected by the slowdown in the global economy. Real GDP in 2012 is projected to grow by 4.7 percent supported by the rebound in household consumption and greater investments by both the private and public sectors as part of flood rehabilitation and the government s consumption-stimulating measures. The economy is projected to grow by 5 percent in 2013 as manufacturing production fully recovers and the global economy sees a modest recovery. Exports in 2013 are therefore expected to grow by 5.5 percent compared to only 3.6 percent in 2012. Budget deficit will be 2.5 percent of GDP for FY2013 plus additional off-budget spending for water resource management projects in FY2013. Public debt is estimated to be close to 50 percent of GDP in 2013. The paddy pledging scheme is estimated to cost around 3.5 percent of GDP each year, while the actual losses will be realized once the rice stocks are sold. The minimum wages have been raised by 40 percent nation-wide in 2012 and will be raised to a uniform rate of THB300 per day. Developing higher skills is imperative for higher incomes, living standards, and for Thailand to grow sustainably and inclusively. Thailand can do better in enabling the poor and vulnerable groups to participate in productive economic activities by pursuing a coordinated approach between universal and targeted social policy.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2012. Thailand Economic Monitor, December 2012. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27085 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Burkina Faso - Promoting Growth, Competitiveness and Diversification : Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 1. Main Report(Washington, DC, 2010-09)The main conclusion of Country Economic Memorandum is that the previous model of extensive growth has now exhausted its potential and must be renewed. Given the existing population dynamics, low environmental tolerance due to its Sahelian climate and competition forces imposed due to its open economy, Burkina Faso is heavily investing in growth based on increased productivity to overcome its low level of initial human capital, capacity constraints and regulation. To help define the new model of development of Burkina Faso, the Country Economic Memorandum is exploring growth based on productivity both at macro-, meso-economic or sectoral, micro and institutional levels only. It also assesses the sustainability of growth in the human, demographic, financial, fiscal and physical infrastructure. Wherever possible, it evaluates the performance of previous development programs and provides diagnostics on problems. It analyzes the current situation in terms of challenges and opportunities. Several major constraints on growth have been identified and the Memorandum offers practical ways to reduce or mitigate them. These constraints are: i. The frequency of exogenous shocks on agriculture in Burkina Faso, especially cotton, significantly slows the socio-economic development; ii. The real appreciation of the exchange rate has eroded the price competitiveness; iii. The country's attractiveness to foreign direct investment, despite significant progress in the business environment, limited growth potential; iv. The high fertility rates impede growth per capita and social development beginning with human capital; v. Environmental constraints limit the extensive growth of agriculture, while food security is always a challenge for human development; vi. The vulnerability of poor households prevents them from truly engaging in productive economic activities; vii. Constraints on institutional and human capacities reduce the effectiveness of public policies. The first volume of the Memorandum emphasizes the need for Burkina Faso to consider the macroeconomic and microeconomic constraints to growth and competitiveness, draws attention to the low sophistication of its exports and suggests policy instruments to facilitate the promotion of export and investment led by the private sector. The second volume emphasizes (i) the need for appropriate choices to ensure the viability of the cotton sector, (ii) the development of supply chains to achieve food security, growth and import substitution, (iii) the important role in the mining sector for growth, with good revenue management, and finally (iv) the potential of tourism as an industry will depend on the service quality improvements and the accommodation capacity and infrastructure. The third volume identifies the actions necessary to (i) address the issues of demographic change through better information, education and communication campaigns to bring about behavioral changes, (ii) develop instruments of risk management to manage the risks of economic, social, health, natural and food security, (iii) improve the country's access to regional and international markets, better connections to regional transport infrastructure, electricity, and telecommunications, water services and improved irrigation systems, (iv) exploiting the financial intermediation by new mechanisms of access to credit, reform the financial sector and institutional capacity building in financial management and risk in the business sector, and (v) create and use the budget by prioritizing expenditures, ensuring the collection of revenue and increasing the flow of aid.Publication Taking Stock, December 2013(Hanoi, 2013-12)Macroeconomic stability in Vietnam is improving, underpinned by moderating inflation and strengthening external accounts. Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation has stabilized, aided by subdued credit growth and easing of food price increases. The decline in core inflation has been more gradual. Pressure on the Vietnamese currency has also eased substantially. A sustained recovery in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth remains hampered however by slow-moving structural reforms and global uncertainty. With rising pressures on the budget, the government is faced with some crucial fiscal policy choices, as it seeks to balance the objectives of economic expansion and macroeconomic stability. This paper explores crucial issues such as trade facilitation, competitiveness and growth, poverty and inequality, corruption and economic growth in Vietnam, the external economic environment, and recent economic developments in Vietnam.Publication Thailand Economic Monitor, April - June 2009(Bangkok, 2009)A solid financial armor could not protect Thailand against the impact of the global financial crisis on its real economy. Despite a sound banking system and low external vulnerabilities, the Thai economy contracted 5.7 percent between October 2008 and March 2009, as the magnitude and speed of the contraction in foreign demand, and resulting shock to the real economy, has been greater than anticipated. There continues to be little impact of the global financial crisis on Thailand's banks: liquidity remained adequate as financial institutions did not face solvency concerns given their adequate capitalization and lack of exposure to 'toxic' assets or risky derivative contracts. The combination of a sound financial sector, low external roll-over and balance-of-payment financing requirements, and, more recently, large current account surpluses, has led to capital inflows, build-up in reserves and an appreciation of the Baht relative to other currencies in the region. However, the impact of the global crisis on the real sector was far more severe than expected. Export volumes contracted by 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared to the World Bank's forecast in December of a 3.0 percent expansion. Exports contracted a further 16 percent in the first quarter of 2009. The aggravation of Thailand's political crisis, which had been dampening investor and consumer confidence since 2006, compounded the shock to the real economy. As a result, real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009 after 38 quarters of growth, and is expected to contract for 2009 as a whole, the first annual contraction since the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998.Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2011, Volume 1 : Securing the Present, Shaping the Future(Washington, DC, 2011-03)Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in East Asia has been moderating after a sharp rebound from the global crisis. The slowdown in growth since mid-2010, even though smaller than earlier projected, has occurred despite a stronger-than-expected recovery in high-income economies and only gradual withdrawal of the monetary and fiscal stimulus across the region. We project real GDP growth will settle to about 8 percent in 2011 and 2012 from about 9.6 percent in 2010. Inflation has become the key short-run challenge for the authorities in the region, complicated by a surge in portfolio capital inflows and rapidly increasing food and commodity prices that hit low-income households disproportionately. For many middle-income countries in East Asia, lowering inflation presents difficult policy choices. Most have eschewed the use of capital controls, and allowing exchange rates to appreciate may protect against importing inflation but jeopardizes international competitiveness. The sharp increase in commodity prices portends increased volatility for the foreseeable future. All commodity prices are on an upswing, some either at all-time highs or at levels exceeding those reached only two years ago. These latest price developments continue the trend that began earlier this decade of a steady climb in real commodity prices, interrupting a decade-long downward trend in the 1990s. Policies to provide incentives and ensure the investment needed to help develop new and greener energy sources, notably with low-carbon emissions and much improved energy efficiency should be a priority for governments in the region. Output growth throughout developing East Asia moderated in the second half of 2010 but was still surprisingly strong. This positive outcome reflected sustained monetary and fiscal stimulus measures and stronger growth in demand abroad, both of which partly offset the return of capacity utilization to pre-crisis levels. Real GDP growth in developing East Asia and Pacific amounted to 9.6 percent for 2010 as a whole 0.7 percentage points higher than our estimate in November 2010.Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2010, Volume 1 : Emerging Stronger from the Crisis(World Bank, 2010)East Asia has recovered from the economic and financial crisis. Largely thanks to China, the region's output, exports and employment have mostly returned to the levels before the crisis. Leading the global economy, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in developing East Asia is poised to rise to 8.7 percent in 2010 after slowing from 8.5 percent in 2008 to 7.0 percent in 2009. This report also identifies two common regional agenda items for the medium term. First, the process of regional integration, driven by Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) commitments to creating a single economic area, will need to continue. Deeper regional economic integration is now even more important, given prospects for slower growth in advanced economies. Behind-the-border trade barriers must be lowered, even in the face of incipient protectionist pressures around the world, including in the region. Deeper integration will encourage agglomeration economies and intra-industry trade, support sustainable urbanization, lower costs, and increase international competitiveness. Second, addressing climate change is high priority in the region. Mitigation measures must be strengthened to improve land and water use, bolster energy efficiency and conservation, and foster a much larger role for renewable sources of energy. Moreover, with investment rates in the region higher than in developed countries, there is scope for East Asia to move rapidly to the "green" technology frontier. Such a move will give the region a competitive advantage in a sector poised for rapid global growth. At the same time, the adaptation agenda will require enhancing the region's cooperation and disaster risk management frameworks. Institutional and regulatory frameworks for improving the resiliency of economic activity, reducing drought and flood risk, and managing coastal areas and small islands, are critically needed.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Finance and Prosperity 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-29)While financial sector risks in the larger and higher per capita countries are moderate, half of lower-income countries face significant risks over the next 12 months. Nearly 70 percent of countries facing high financial sector risks are currently not adequately prepared to handle financial stress. The report also identifies a particular risk facing financial sectors in several countries: a large and growing exposure to sovereign debt. This exposure surged to its highest level in the past decade. Finally, the report looks at how countries can enable more climate finance through the banking sector without compromising on the important goals of financial sector stability and inclusion for underserved people.Publication World Development Report 2017(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-01-30)Why are carefully designed, sensible policies too often not adopted or implemented? When they are, why do they often fail to generate development outcomes such as security, growth, and equity? And why do some bad policies endure? This book addresses these fundamental questions, which are at the heart of development. Policy making and policy implementation do not occur in a vacuum. Rather, they take place in complex political and social settings, in which individuals and groups with unequal power interact within changing rules as they pursue conflicting interests. The process of these interactions is what this Report calls governance, and the space in which these interactions take place, the policy arena. The capacity of actors to commit and their willingness to cooperate and coordinate to achieve socially desirable goals are what matter for effectiveness. However, who bargains, who is excluded, and what barriers block entry to the policy arena determine the selection and implementation of policies and, consequently, their impact on development outcomes. Exclusion, capture, and clientelism are manifestations of power asymmetries that lead to failures to achieve security, growth, and equity. The distribution of power in society is partly determined by history. Yet, there is room for positive change. This Report reveals that governance can mitigate, even overcome, power asymmetries to bring about more effective policy interventions that achieve sustainable improvements in security, growth, and equity. This happens by shifting the incentives of those with power, reshaping their preferences in favor of good outcomes, and taking into account the interests of previously excluded participants. These changes can come about through bargains among elites and greater citizen engagement, as well as by international actors supporting rules that strengthen coalitions for reform.Publication Unlocking the Power of Healthy Longevity(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-12)Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are among the major health and development challenges of our time. Every year, about 41 million people die due to NCDs. This makes up about 74 percent of all deaths globally, the majority of which are in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Countless more people live with NCDs every day. Yet, NCDs are largely treatable and preventable. The risk of developing NCDs and deaths from them can both be lowered with appropriate attention to prevention and treatment. However, weak health systems and limited access to affordable care and information, especially in LMICs, contribute to lapses in seeking and receiving appropriate and timely care. This compendium is a compilation of 18 chapters, each exploring a different but related topic in the nexus of NCDs, human capital, and productivity. It is based on a series of analytical work taken up by the World Bank to support the Healthy Longevity Initiative (HLI) - a collaborative effort between the World Bank, the University of Toronto, and key academic and development partners including the Harvard University and the University of Washington. The HLI presents one of a growing set of efforts to increase the urgency of policy response to NCDs across the world.Publication Choosing Our Future(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-04)Education can propel faster and better climate action in two crucial ways. First, education can galvanize behavior change at scale - not just for tomorrow, but also for today. Second, education can unlock skills and innovation to shift economies onto greener trajectories for growth. At the same time, education needs to be protected from climate change. Extreme climate events and temperatures are already eroding hard-won progress on schooling and learning. Climate change is causing school closures, learning losses, and dropouts. These will turn into long-run inter-generational earnings losses putting into jeopardy education’s powerful potential for spurring poverty alleviation and economic growth. Governments can act now to adapt schools for climate change in cost-effective ways. This report outlines new data, evidence, and examples on how countries can harness education to propel climate action. It provides an actionable policy agenda to meet development, education, and climate goals together, recognizing that tackling climate change requires changes to individual beliefs, behaviors, and skills – changes that education is uniquely positioned to catalyze.Publication World Development Report 2004(World Bank, 2003)Too often, services fail poor people in access, in quality, and in affordability. But the fact that there are striking examples where basic services such as water, sanitation, health, education, and electricity do work for poor people means that governments and citizens can do a better job of providing them. Learning from success and understanding the sources of failure, this year’s World Development Report, argues that services can be improved by putting poor people at the center of service provision. How? By enabling the poor to monitor and discipline service providers, by amplifying their voice in policymaking, and by strengthening the incentives for providers to serve the poor. Freedom from illness and freedom from illiteracy are two of the most important ways poor people can escape from poverty. To achieve these goals, economic growth and financial resources are of course necessary, but they are not enough. The World Development Report provides a practical framework for making the services that contribute to human development work for poor people. With this framework, citizens, governments, and donors can take action and accelerate progress toward the common objective of poverty reduction, as specified in the Millennium Development Goals.