Publication: Climate Shocks and the Poor: A Review of the Literature
Loading...
Date
2024-03-29
ISSN
Published
2024-03-29
Editor(s)
Abstract
There is a rapidly growing literature on the link between climate change and poverty. This study reviews the existing literature on whether the poor are more exposed to climate shocks and whether they are more adversely affected. About two-thirds of the studies in our analyzed sample find that the poor are more exposed to climate shocks than is the rest of the population and four-fifths of the studies find that the poor are more adversely affected by climate shocks than is the rest of the population. Income and human capital losses tend to be concentrated among the poor. These findings highlight the potential long-term risk of a climate-change induced poverty trap and the need for targeted interventions to protect the poor from the adverse effects of climate shocks.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Triyana, Margaret; Jiang, Andy Weicheng; Hu, Yurui; Naoaj, MD Shah. 2024. Climate Shocks and the Poor: A Review of the Literature. Policy Research Working Paper; 10742. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/41322 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Geopolitics and the World Trading System(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-23)Until the beginning of this century, the GATT/WTO system worked. Economic research provided a compelling explanation. It showed that if governments maximize the well-being of their own countries broadly defined, GATT/WTO principles would facilitate mutually beneficial cooperation over their trade policy choices. Now heightened geopolitical rivalry seems to have undermined the WTO. A simple transposition of the previous rationalization suggests that geopolitics and trade cooperation are not compatible. The paper shows that this is only true if rivalry eclipses any consideration of own-country well-being. In all other circumstances, there are gains from trade cooperation even with geopolitics. Furthermore, the WTO’s relevance is in question only if it adheres too rigidly to its existing rules and norms. Through measured adaptation to the geopolitical imperative, the WTO can continue to thrive as a forum for multilateral trade cooperation in the age of geopolitics.Publication From Patriarchy to Policy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Legal institutions play an important role in shaping gender equality in economic domains, from inheritance to labor markets. But where do gender equal laws come from? Using cross-country data on social norms and legal equality, this paper investigates the socio-cultural roots of gender inequity in the legal system and its implications for female labor force participation. To identify the impact of social norms, the analysis uses an empirical strategy that exploits pre-modern differences in ancestral patriarchal culture as an instrument for present-day gender norms. The findings show that ancestral patriarchal culture is a strong predictor of contemporary norms, and conservative social norms are associated with more gender inequality in the de jure legal framework, the de facto implementation of laws, and the labor market. The paper presents evidence for a political selection mechanism linking norms to laws: countries with more conservative norms elect political leaders who are more hostile to gender equality, who then pass less progressive legislation. The results highlight the cultural roots and political drivers of legalized gender inequality.Publication Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05)Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.Publication Rethinking Fiscal Policies(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-27)This paper examines the redistributive impact of fiscal policy—specifically taxes and transfers—on poverty and inequality in eight countries in the Middle East and North Africa: the Arab Republic of Egypt, Djibouti, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, and the West Bank and Gaza. Utilizing the Commitment to Equity framework, the analysis evaluates how fiscal interventions alter income distribution across these diverse national contexts. The results indicate that direct cash transfers and social assistance programs are generally effective in reducing poverty and shielding vulnerable populations, while in-kind benefits—particularly in education and healthcare—significantly contribute to mitigating income inequality. In contrast, generalized subsidies, especially in the energy sector, are fiscally burdensome and largely regressive, offering limited equity gains. Indirect taxes, although important for revenue generation, often exacerbate income disparities. The study underscores the need for comprehensive fiscal reforms, including the expansion of well-targeted transfers, adoption of progressive taxation, and reallocation of inefficient subsidies toward investments in human capital. Successful initiatives, such as Egypt’s Takaful and Karama and Jordan’s Takaful and bread subsidy compensation programs, illustrate scalable models of effective redistribution. Moreover, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s progressive tax policies highlight viable pathways to equitable revenue mobilization. Strengthening investment in education and health is essential for promoting long-term equity, enhancing upward mobility, and supporting inclusive and sustainable development across the region.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Climate Resilient Cities : A Primer on Reducing Vulnerabilities to Disasters(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2009)Climate resilient cities a primer on reducing vulnerabilities to disasters is prepared as a guide for local governments in the East Asia Region to better understand the concepts and consequences of climate change; how climate change consequences contribute to urban vulnerabilities; and what is being done by city governments in East Asia and around the world to actively engage in learning, capacity building, and capital investment programs for building sustainable, resilient communities. The primer is applicable to a range of cities from those starting to build awareness on climate change to those with climate change strategies and institutions already in place. It is now undeniably evident that the global climate is changing as a result of human induced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Increased levels of heat trapped in the atmosphere have set off a process that is modifying weather patterns, which in turn affect temperatures, sea levels, and storm frequencies. This will impact cities and other urban areas, especially those in coastal zones. Asia already experiences the greatest number of flood events worldwide. Since the beginning of the 21st century, Asia has experienced more than 550 floods affecting over 850 million people. Out of China's estimated urban population of 400 million, 130 million live in coastal cities that are vulnerable to sea-level rise. The high incidence of hydro-meteorological and other disasters affecting urban areas, particularly in vulnerable regions, is a challenge to local officials and their communities in being prepared and proactive in reducing their GHG emissions and in addressing increasingly frequent and extreme climate change events.Publication Climate and Disaster Resilience : The Role for Community-Driven Development(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-02-01)This paper is part of a larger effort to document, assess, and promote scalable models and approaches to empower poor communities to manage a climate and disaster risk agenda in support of their development goals and to identify practical ways of getting climate and disaster risk financing directly to the ground level where impacts are felt. Social funds, social protection systems and safety nets, community-driven development (CDD) projects, livelihoods-support and related operational platforms can serve as useful vehicles for promoting community-level resilience to disaster and climate risk. This paper examines the World Bank's Community-Driven Development (CDD) portfolio to assess experience to date and to explore the potential for building the resilience of vulnerable communities to climate and disaster risk through CDD programs. It aims to be useful to both the Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management practitioner as well as the CDD practitioner. The paper assesses the scale of climate and disaster resilience support provided through CDD projects from 2001-11 and characterizes the forms of support provided. For the climate change adaption and disaster risk management (DRM) practitioner, it discusses the characteristics of a CDD approach and how they lend themselves to building local-level climate resilience. For the CDD practitioner, the paper describes the types of activities that support resilience building and explores future directions for CDD to become a more effective vehicle for reducing climate and disaster risk.Publication The RISE Framework(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-01-17)The world has witnessed unparalleled economic progress in the last three decades. But success is not preordained, and several headwinds threaten this hard fought progress. Inequality is leaving many people and subgroups behind and excluding them from enjoying the benefits of this great economic expansion. More recently, the world has awakened to the reality of a new type of risk. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) struck at a time when the world was healthier and wealthier than ever before. There is little disagreement over the need to enable a recovery that is fairer, safer, and more sustainable. This report describes how these ambitious objectives can be achieved by providing evidence based tools and information to guide countries to spend better and improve policies. It is in this context that this document presents policy guidance to identify and diagnose key development challenges and develop solutions to help countries build better.Publication Economic of Adaptation to Climate Change : Bangladesh, Volume 1. Main Report(Washington, DC, 2010)Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate risks. Two-thirds of the nation is less than 5 meters above sea level and is susceptible to river and rainwater flooding, particularly during the monsoon. The Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP), adopted by the government of Bangladesh in 2009, seek to guide activities and programs related to climate change in Bangladesh. Until the past few years, climatic risks have been poorly reflected in national policies and programs Bangladesh. The objective of this study is to help decision makers in Bangladesh to better understand and assess the risks posed by climate change and to better design strategies to adapt to climate change. The study takes as its starting point the BCCSAP. It builds upon and strengthens the analytical models and quantitative assessment tools already in use in Bangladesh in support of the research and knowledge management theme of BCCSAP. The scope of this study is more limited than the BCCSAP, so the reported costs represent a lower bound on the total adaptation costs in Bangladesh. The study was developed in four discrete and somewhat independent components with varying degrees of analytical depth and quantification.Publication The Republic of Armenia Climate Change and Agriculture Country Note(Washington, DC, 2012-06)This country note for Armenia is part of a series of country briefs that summarize information relevant to climate change and agriculture for three pilot countries in the Southern Caucasus Region, with a particular focus on climate and crop projections, adaptation options, policy development and institutional involvement. The note series has been developed to provide a baseline of knowledge on climate change and agriculture for the countries participating in the regional program on reducing vulnerability to climate change in Southern Caucasus Agricultural systems. This note for Armenia was shared with the government and other agricultural sector stakeholders and used as an engagement tool for a national awareness raising and consultation workshop, held in Yerevan in April 2012. Feedback and comments on the note from this consultation process have been incorporated into this updated version in collaboration with the Armenian Ministry of Agriculture.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication South Asia’s Digital Opportunity(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-03-27)The report presents both the opportunities of and the bottlenecks for furthering the digital agenda. It emphasizes that the first step is to get the basics right. This includes enabling access to and adoption of high-quality affordable broadband, initiating a paradigm shift in building digital public platforms and accelerating digital financial services. Part of this includes integrating digital ID, digital payments, and data sharing platforms so they can become ‘digital stacks’ that allow service providers to build and innovate their own platforms and systems on top. Supporting digital businesses, fostering digital skills, and creating the necessary trust environment are also critical to the digital agenda. Further, a successful digital agenda at country levels would benefit from regional integration that entails cross-border connectivity, data infrastructure, and payment systems.Publication Municipal Waste Management in Serbia - Situational Analysis(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-19)This report provides a baseline analysis of the existing situation in the municipal waste management sector in Serbia and underscores the importance of the sector in terms of achieving Sustainable Cities objectives. Reforms in the waste sector are a key component of a larger government commitment to a Green Transition. Ambitions to significantly improving the solid waste management system, in line with EU requirements, is well reflected in recently adopted policies and plans including the National Waste Management Program for the period2022 – 2031. There is a significant focus on the establishment of much needed basic disposal infrastructure. However, implementation remains slow, and some waste related targets will require further alignment and adjustment as the EU landscape continues to evolve.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.Publication Women, Business and the Law 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-02)“Women, Business and the Law 2023” is the ninth in a series of annual studies measuring the laws and regulations that affect women’s economic opportunity in 190 economies. The project presents eight indicators structured around women’s interactions with the law as they move through their lives and careers: Mobility, Workplace, Pay, Marriage, Parenthood, Entrepreneurship, Assets, and Pension. The 2023 edition identifies barriers to women’s economic participation and encourages reform of discriminatory laws. This year, the study also includes research, a literature review, and analysis of 53 years of reforms for women’s rights. Examining the economic decisions that women make throughout their working lives as well as tracking regulatory changes from 1970 to today, the study makes an important contribution to research and policy discussions about the state of women’s economic opportunities. By presenting powerful examples of change and highlighting the gaps still remaining, “Women, Business and the Law 2023” is a vital tool in ensuring economic empowerment for all. Data in “Women, Business and the Law 2023” are current as of October 1, 2022.Publication Impact of Climate Change in Health in Colombia and Recommendations for Mitigation and Adaptation(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-10-18)Climate change has been called the most important threat to human health in the 21st century. It is estimated that if thetemperature rises and its impact on the other climatic variablescontinues unchanged, it will kill more than 83 million people (1 percent of the world’s population) in the next 80 years (Wattset al. 2020)—13 times the toll of the COVID-19 pandemic (WorldHealth Organization 2023). Historically, only pandemics or worldwars have posed such threats to human health. As a result,the issue has aroused unprecedented attention. In 2021, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared climate changethe greatest health threat facing humanity (WHO 2021). Now, more than 195 governments have included climate change mitigation and adaptation as pillars in their multi-year plans, and government health sectors have been developing plans tomeasure and respond to the impact of climate change on health. However, recognition of the links between climate change and health remains nascent, so these efforts have not yet been accompanied by strategic and actionable approaches to measure the impacts and ground the responses. This report contributes to addressing that gap by providing a framework for understandingthe impact of climate change on human health in Colombia and by outlining the most effective actions to mitigate the threat.