Publication: The Effect of Weather-Induced Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets : Evidence from Uganda
Relying on census data collected in 2002 and historical weather data for Uganda, this paper estimates the impact of weather-induced internal migration on the probability for non-migrants living in the destination regions to be employed. Consistent with the prediction of a simple theoretical model, the results reveal a larger negative impact than the one documented for developed countries. They further show that this negative impact is significantly stronger in Ugandan regions with lower road density and therefore less conducive to capital mobility: a 10 percentage points increase in the net in-migration rate in these areas decreases the probability of being employed of non-migrants by more than 10 percentage points.
Link to Data Set
“Strobl, Eric; Valfort, Marie-Anne. 2013. The Effect of Weather-Induced Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets : Evidence from Uganda. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6600. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/15832 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Other publications in this report series
PublicationEffects of a Lottery Incentive on Sexually Transmitted Infections and HIV Incidence among Female Sex Workers in Tanzania: Results from the RESPECT II Randomized Trial(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-09-26)Female sex workers are a key population who experience a disproportionately high burden of HIV and sexually transmitted infections. A growing body of evidence suggests that financial incentives can reduce risky sexual behavior and the incidence of HIV and sexually transmitted infections; however, few studies have examined a lottery-based incentive mechanism or been conducted with female sex workers. This paper examines the effect of a lottery intervention on the combined incidence of HIV and herpes simplex virus 2 among female sex workers in Tanzania. The RESPECT II trial was an unmasked, two-arm, parallel group randomized controlled trial conducted in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania among 2,206 enrollees from 2018 to 2021. Participants were randomized in a one-to-one ratio to the basic test control group or to the lottery intervention group. The basic test group received testing and counseling for HIV and biweekly text messages with information on safe sex practices. The lottery group received the basic test group intervention plus entry into a weekly lottery with a 100,000 Tanzanian shilling (US$50) reward offered to 10 randomly selected participants, conditional on negative test results for syphilis and trichomonas. The primary outcome was combined HIV and herpes simplex virus 2 incidence after 36 months. The results showed no statistically significant effect on this primary outcome. Thus the study finds no evidence that the lottery-based incentives reduced the incidence of HIV and sexually transmitted infections among the female sex worker population. However, the results may have been affected by disruption from the COVID-19 pandemic, and unexpectedly high study attrition levels made it impossible to statistically rule out possible moderate-sized effects.
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