Publication:
Struggling with the Rain: Weather Variability and Food Insecurity Forecasting in Mauritania

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dc.contributor.authorBlanchard, Paul
dc.contributor.authorIshizawa, Oscar
dc.contributor.authorHumbert, Thibaut
dc.contributor.authorVan Der Borght, Rafael
dc.date.accessioned2023-06-15T17:38:17Z
dc.date.available2023-06-15T17:38:17Z
dc.date.issued2023-06-15
dc.description.abstractWeather-related shocks and climate variability contribute to hampering progress toward poverty reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa. Droughts have a direct impact on weather-dependent livelihood means and the potential to affect key dimensions of households’ welfare, including food consumption. Yet, the ability to forecast food insecurity for intervention planning remains limited and current approaches mainly rely on qualitative methods. This paper incorporates microeconomic estimates of the effect of the rainy season quality on food consumption into a catastrophe risk modeling approach to develop a novel framework for early forecasting of food insecurity at sub-national levels. The model relies on three usual components of catastrophe risk models that are adapted for estimation of the impact of rainy season quality on food insecurity: natural hazards, households’ vulnerability and exposure. The paper applies this framework in the context of rural Mauritania and optimizes the model calibration with a machine learning procedure. The model can produce fairly accurate lean season food insecurity predictions very early on in the agricultural season (October-November), that is six to eight months ahead of the lean season. Comparisons of model predictions with survey-based estimates yield a mean absolute error of 1.2 percentage points at the national level and a high degree of correlation at the regional level (0.84).en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099329405302313976/IDU1ac3abf051edcb143c619a241dc4aec8e2cd6
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10457
dc.identifier.urihttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/39879
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Papers; 10457
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/igo/
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectFOOD SECURITY
dc.subjectDROUGHT
dc.subjectEARLY WARNING SYSTEM
dc.subjectADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION
dc.subjectCLIMATE VULNERABILITY
dc.subjectPROBABILISTIC RISK MODELING
dc.subjectWEATHER-RELATED RISK
dc.titleStruggling with the Rainen
dc.title.subtitleWeather Variability and Food Insecurity Forecasting in Mauritaniaen
dc.typeWorking Paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleStruggling with the Rain: Weather Variability and Food Insecurity Forecasting in Mauritania
okr.date.disclosure2023-05-30
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-25T02:23:47.270396Z
okr.date.lastmodified2023-05-31T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099329405302313976/IDU1ac3abf051edcb143c619a241dc4aec8e2cd6
okr.guid099329405302313976
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-ac3abf05-edcb-43c6-9a24-dc4aec8e2cd6
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10457
okr.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10457
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34071750
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34071750
okr.identifier.reportWPS10457
okr.import.id845
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099329405302313976/pdf/IDU1ac3abf051edcb143c619a241dc4aec8e2cd6.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeAfrica Western and Central (AFW)
okr.region.countryMauritania
okr.region.geographicalSub-Saharan Africa
okr.sectorPublic Administration - Social Protection,Social Protection,Central Government (Central Agencies),Other Public Administration
okr.topicEnvironment::Climate Change Impacts
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Climate Change and Health
okr.topicAgriculture::Food Security
okr.topicWater Resources::Drought Management
okr.unitSocial Protection & Labor AFR 2 (HAWS2)
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