Publication:
Western Balkans Regular Economic Report, No. 17, Spring 2020: The Economic and Social Impact of COVID-19

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Date
2020-04-29
ISSN
Published
2020-04-29
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
In Spring 2020, Western Balkan countries - like most others in the world—have been forced to impose tight restrictions on economic life to contain the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) pandemic. In the first half of 2020, the world has seen explosive growth of infections with the deadly novel virus. As country after country has been forced to shut down large areas of social and economic life to slow contagion, the Western Balkans have not been spared. The first cases were recognized as early as the first week of March. As of April 27, 2020, the Johns Hopkins corona virus data center now reports that over 11,000 cases have been confirmed in the six countries in the region. In response, all six have enforced lockdowns and strict social distancing measures. International airports in all countries were closed for passenger traffic. The initial lockdowns have been extended. The capitals of Kosovo and Albania are under quarantine, as are other cities in the region. Key economic sectors, such as restaurants and nonessential retail, have been shut down. Travel and social gatherings have been restricted or banned, and schools and universities have been closed. The RER No. 17 is a collection of notes on the Economic and Social Impact of COVID-19.
Link to Data Set
Citation
World Bank. 2020. Western Balkans Regular Economic Report, No. 17, Spring 2020: The Economic and Social Impact of COVID-19. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33670 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Western Balkans Regular Economic Report, No. 19, Spring 2021
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-27) World Bank
    In 2020 COVID-19 (coronavirus) plunged the Western Balkan countries, like the rest of the world, into deep recession. Economic activity contracted by an estimated 3.4 percent - the worst downturn on record. The primary causes were the drop in both domestic and foreign demand and disruptions in supply chains, especially early in the year when activity in a number of sectors simply shut down. Countries like Montenegro that have a services or tourism-oriented economy, and those where more stringent containment measures and lockdowns were imposed fared the worst. The economy began to reactivate in Q3 2020, supported by a partial easing of stringent lockdowns and the revival of global demand as vaccine development advanced. However, in late 2020 restrictions were renewed in response to a resurgence of infections across most of the region; they have kept the recovery subdued. The crisis has led to significant job losses and interruptions in welfare improvements, but the labor market is rebounding from the troughs of the recession. As noted in the Fall 2020 Regular Economic Report (RER), the pandemic halted a decade of progress in boosting incomes and reducing poverty: Since its start 139,000 jobs have been lost and between 165,000 and 336,000 people in theregion were pushed into poverty. However, job support schemes and other government measures limited the labor market fallout and helped to prevent steeper spikes in poverty. By yearend, the labor market had recovered half its pandemic losses, but large numbers of people are still unemployed, and many dropped out of the labor force discouraged by the poor economic prospects. Moreover, workers with less education, women, youth, those in contact-intensive sectors, and those informally employed have suffered disproportionate livelihood and income losses.
  • Publication
    Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No.18, Fall 2020
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10-22) World Bank
    As elsewhere in the world, in the Western Balkans the COVID-19 pandemic has plunged countries into deep recession. Because of the recession, labor market conditions have taken a turn for the worse and welfare improvements have been interrupted, although government response measures cushioned the blow. Policy efforts in the region need to remain focused on fighting the pandemic, limiting the economic damage and facilitating recovery.
  • Publication
    EU11 Regular Economic Report, Issue #27, June 2013
    (Washington, DC, 2013-06) World Bank
    This economic report covers economic developments, prospects, and policies in 11 European Union (EU) countries. Throughout the report this group of eleven countries is referred to as EU11.The economic recovery of the EU11 countries was put on hold in 2012 as the external environment weakened and domestic demand subsided. All EU11 countries, with the exception of Latvia, grew slower than in 2011. The overall Gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 0.8 percent in 2012 was just a quarter of the pace recorded the year before. Domestic demand, in particular investment, abated, leaving net exports as the sole driver of growth. In addition, the number of EU11 countries in recession doubled to four, after the Czech Republic and Hungary joined Slovenia and Croatia. Overall, this empirical result confirms that, in qualitative terms, the analyzed firm characteristics affect job creation both during recessions and economic recoveries. They indicate that the more productive firms tend to be less vulnerable to economic downturns. Accordingly, any type of activities that increase productivity can be expected to reduce the overall exposure of the EU11 economies to recessions and, therefore, should allow firms to compete more successfully with international competitors.
  • Publication
    Tunisia Economic Monitor, Fall 2020
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-09) World Bank
    Tunisia is expecting a sharper decline in growth than most of its regional peers, having entered the COVID-19 (coronavirus) crisis whilst already experiencing slow growth and rising debt levels. After an expected 9.2 percent contraction in 2020, growth is temporarily expected to accelerate to 5.8 percent in 2021 as the pandemic’s effects begin to abate, before returning to a more subdued growth trajectory at around 2 percent by 2022, reflecting pre-existing structural weaknesses. With this, some of the past gains in job creation and poverty reduction will be lost as unemployment edges up and the share of the population vulnerable to falling into poverty increases. In this difficult context, restoring the credibility of the macroeconomic framework is a critical next step for Tunisia to successfully navigate its way through this crisis and lay the foundation for a more durable recovery in growth. The special focus in this edition of the Tunisia Economic Monitor draws on the recently published enterprise survey for Tunisia to discuss the latest evidence on firm performance and present priorities for a growing and more productive private sector.
  • Publication
    Western Balkans Regular Economic Report, No. 20, Fall 2021
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-20) World Bank
    Fiscal balances have started to improve as a result of a stronger economic performance, but it will take further effort to replenish buffers. The growth recovery is contributing to buoyant revenue collection across the region, particularly in value-added tax collections, as domestic consumption strengthens. Similarly, a leveling off of public spending in 2021 after the countercyclical surge of 2020 is helping on the expenditure side. As a result, all countries except Bosnia and Herzegovina expect to see a narrower fiscal deficit in 2021, with the average deficit reduced by 2.7 percent of GDP year-on-year. However, the deficits across all economies of the Western Balkans are still above pre-pandemic trends, and the legacy of the pandemic is a stock of public debt that has now reached historic highs in all countries except Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. As the recovery from COVID-19 takes hold, greater efforts will be needed to mobilize and diversify sources of revenue and to streamline expenditure programs, which in turn would help address fiscal vulnerabilities that have arisen during the crisis. In line with global conditions, inflationary pressures in the Western Balkans are on an upward trajectory. Average inflation is projected to reach 2.3 percent in 2021 from 0.9 percent in 2020. On the external side, strengthening demand in advanced economies is driving commodity prices upward and putting pressure on COVID-19-strained logistics networks and global value chains. Similarly, the faster-than-expected recovery in domestic consumption across the region has placed upward pressure on domestic costs, particularly in labor markets during the summer tourism season.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Luna-Bazaldua, Diego; Levin, Victoria; Liberman, Julia; Gala, Priyal Mukesh
    This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.
  • Publication
    Doing Business 2014 : Understanding Regulations for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises
    (Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2013-10-28) World Bank; International Finance Corporation
    Eleventh in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 185 economies, Doing Business 2014 measures regulations affecting 11 areas of everyday business activity: Starting a business, Dealing with construction permits, Getting electricity, Registering property, Getting credit, Protecting investors, Paying taxes, Trading across borders, Enforcing contracts, Closing a business, Employing workers. The report updates all indicators as of June 1, 2013, ranks economies on their overall “ease of doing business”, and analyzes reforms to business regulation – identifying which economies are strengthening their business environment the most. The Doing Business reports illustrate how reforms in business regulations are being used to analyze economic outcomes for domestic entrepreneurs and for the wider economy. Doing Business is a flagship product by the World Bank and IFC that garners worldwide attention on regulatory barriers to entrepreneurship. More than 60 economies use the Doing Business indicators to shape reform agendas and monitor improvements on the ground. In addition, the Doing Business data has generated over 870 articles in peer-reviewed academic journals since its inception.
  • Publication
    Remarks to the Annual Meetings 2020 Development Committee
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10-16) Malpass, David
    David Malpass, President of the World Bank Group, announced that the Board approved a fast track approach to emergency health support programs that now covers 111 countries. Most projects are well advanced, with average disbursement upward of 40 percent. The goal is to take broad, fast action early. The operational framework presented back in June has positioned the Bank to help countries address immediate health threats and social and economic impacts and maintain our focus on long-term development. The Bank is making good progress toward the 15-month target of 160 billion dollars in surge financing. Much of it is for the poorest countries and will take the form of grants or low-rate, long-maturity loans. IFC, through the Global Health Platform, will be providing financing to vaccine manufacturers to foster expanded production of COVID-19 vaccines in both part 1 and 2 countries, providing production is reserved for emerging markets. The Development Committee holds a unique place in the international architecture. It is the only global forum in which the Governments of developed countries and the Governments of developing countries, creditor countries and borrower countries, come together to discuss development and the ‘net transfer of resources to developing countries.’ The current International Financial Architecture system is skewed in favor of the rich and creditor countries. It is important that all voices are heard, so Malpass urged the Ministers of developing countries to use their voice and speak their minds today. Malpass urged consideration of how we can build a new approach to debt restructuring that allows for a fair relationship and balance between creditors and debtors. This will be critical in restoring growth in developing countries; and helping reverse the inequality.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2011
    (World Bank, 2011) World Bank
    The 2011 World development report looks across disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world to offer some ideas and practical recommendations on how to move beyond conflict and fragility and secure development. The key messages are important for all countries-low, middle, and high income-as well as for regional and global institutions: first, institutional legitimacy is the key to stability. When state institutions do not adequately protect citizens, guard against corruption, or provide access to justice; when markets do not provide job opportunities; or when communities have lost social cohesion-the likelihood of violent conflict increases. Second, investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs is essential to reducing violence. But there are major structural gaps in our collective capabilities to support these areas. Third, confronting this challenge effectively means that institutions need to change. International agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so they can respond with agility and speed, a longer-term perspective, and greater staying power. Fourth, need to adopt a layered approach. Some problems can be addressed at the country level, but others need to be addressed at a regional level, such as developing markets that integrate insecure areas and pooling resources for building capacity Fifth, in adopting these approaches, need to be aware that the global landscape is changing. Regional institutions and middle income countries are playing a larger role. This means should pay more attention to south-south and south-north exchanges, and to the recent transition experiences of middle income countries.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2006
    (Washington, DC, 2005) World Bank
    This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.