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Avner, Paolo

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P. Avner

Last updated:September 12, 2025

Biography

Paolo Avner is a Senior Economist at Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). His current work in GFDRR focuses on the links between urban form, land uses, transport systems, labor markets and vulnerability to natural hazards in developing country cities. He has worked on a number of analytical products including Urbanization Reviews (Kenya, Ethiopia, Haiti, Guinea, Mali) and flagship reports and is the author of several policy-oriented research papers. Prior to joining the Bank, Paolo worked in France as a researcher in LEPII (Grenoble) before joining the Center for International Research in Environment and Development (Paris) where he collaborated to the development of an applied land use - transport interaction model (NEDUM-2D). His work specifically focused on the ability of public policies and investments to curb greenhouse gas emissions from urban transport while limiting the costs of these policies for urban residents. Paolo has graduated from La Sorbonne University and from University Paris X - Nanterre as an economist and holds a doctorate from EHESS – École des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, Paris.

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Now showing1 - 10 of 26

The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10) Farkas, Hannah; Linsenmeier, Manuel; Talevi, Marta; Avner, Paolo; Jafino, Bramka Arga; Sidibe, Moussa
This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.
Early Warnings Coverage, Determinants of Reception, and Benefits: What Surveys Can Tell Us
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-03) Beaudet, Chloé; Bernard, Louise; Jafino, Bramka Arga; Avner, Paolo
Early warning systems are a cornerstone of disaster risk reduction, enabling timely alerts and protective actions that save lives and reduce damages. Yet, despite their documented cost-effectiveness and potential to bolster resilience, early warning system coverage remains uneven across countries and within communities. Furthermore, there remains a gap in the literature around people-centered approaches to understand what drives early warning system coverage, the reception of warnings, and their realized benefits at the household level. This paper addresses that gap by leveraging four surveys conducted at different scales (international, national, and subnational) and focusing on different geographic areas (urban versus rural) to examine early warning systems from a household perspective. Using the World Risk Poll, the paper first examines the determinants of early warning system coverage at the national level, highlighting the role of gross domestic product, disaster predictability, and the likelihood that a country is affected by a disaster. At the household level, the findings show that warning reception is influenced by socioeconomic status, dwelling location, and access to digital devices. Finally, the paper shows that receiving an early warning is strongly associated with higher perceived resilience, increased adoption of preventive measures, and significantly lower casualty rates in disaster-affected areas. These findings underscore the urgent need to improve both the accessibility and effectiveness of early warning systems, particularly for vulnerable populations in low-income and high-risk regions.
Settling in the Zone: Urbanization and Flood Exposure Trends since 1985, Europe and Central Asia
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-12) Rentschler, Jun; Lemke, Jana; Avner, Paolo
As countries rapidly urbanize, settlements are expanding into hazardous flood zones. This analysis considers spatial urbanization patterns and the evolution of flood exposure between 1985 and 2020 in 55 countries in the Europe and Central Asia region. The evidence in this report suggests that across Europe and Central Asia, urbanization in flood zones can accelerate even as urbanization overall is slowing down. The causes behind this trend are wide-ranging, including rational risk taking for economic opportunities (e.g. coastal developments for tourism), as well as rising scarcity of safe land, a lack of risk-informed planning, inadequate zoning and land use regulations, or weak enforcement. These findings suggest that local planners and authorities play a key role in managing and counteracting flood exposure. These findings also highlight how comprehensive hazard data and continuous monitoring of urbanization and flood exposure patterns can help adapt planning and infrastructure investments and guide timely interventions. While land scarcity and geographic constraints can mean that flood zones cannot always be avoided, careful planning of protection systems and disaster preparedness are key to balance flood risk with objectives of urban and economic development.
Within Reach: Navigating the Political Economy of Decarbonization
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-11-16) Hallegatte, Stéphane; Godinho, Catrina; Rentschler, Jun; Avner, Paolo; Dorband, Ira Irina; Knudsen, Camilla; Lemke, Jana; Mealy, Penny
Despite global commitments made through the Paris Agreement in 2015 to combat climate change, their translation into national policies has been slow, raising concerns about the feasibility of achieving climate targets. While policies face many obstacles, the political economy is one of the primary impediments to climate action, and urgency to reduce emissions makes slow and gradual approach increasingly insufficient. The report attempts to identify key political economy barriers and explore options to address them through the 4i Framework, considering how institutions, interests, ideas, and influence affect the political economy. The report offers a practical guide to help countries address political economy barriers when implementing climate policies with three prongs: (1) Climate Governance: governments can adapt their institutional framework, in ways that fit with the pre-existing political economy and moving from opportunistic and unstable to strategic and stable climate institutions. Establishing strategic climate governance institutions – such as climate change framework laws, long-term strategies, or just transition frameworks - can alter the political economy, set clear objectives, improve coordination across actors, and improve the ability to monitor progress and hold decisionmakers accountable. (2) Policy Sequencing: policies can be prioritized and sequenced based on dynamic efficiency, considering not only the economic costs and benefits, but also their feasibility and long-term impact on the political economy. The Climate Policy Feasibility Frontier tool can help identify policies that can overcome short-term political economy obstacles, and at the same time improve capacities and change the political economy to facilitate further climate action. (3) Policy Design and Engagement, considers the effective implementation of climate reforms by tactically navigating political economy constraints. This involves engaging citizens to create process legitimacy and reducing and managing distributional effects, not only across but also within income groups.
Flood Protection and Land Value Creation: Not All Resilience Investments Are Created Equal
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-11) Avner, Paolo; Viguié, Vincent; Jafino, Bramka Arga; Hallegatte, Stephane
This paper investigates the land value creation potential from flood mitigation investments in a theoretical and applied setting, using the urban area of Buenos Aires as a case study. It contributes to the literature on the wider economic benefits of government interventions and the dividends of resilience investments. Using a simple urban economics framework that represents land and housing markets, it finds that not all flood mitigation interventions display the same potential for land value creation: where land is more valuable (city centers for example), the benefits of resilience are higher. The paper also provides ranges for land value creation potential from the flood mitigation works in Buenos Aires under various model specifications. Although the estimates vary largely depending on model parameters and specifications, in many cases the land value creation would be sufficient to justify the investments. This result is robust even in the closed city configuration with conservative flood damage estimates, providing that the parameters remain reasonably close to the values obtained from the calibration. Finally, acknowledging that fully calibrating and running an urban simulation model is data greedy and time intensive—even a simple model as proposed here—this research also proposes reduced form expressions that can provide approximations for land value creation from flood mitigation investments and can be used in operational contexts.
Rapid Urban Growth in Flood Zones: Global Evidence since 1985
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-04) Rentschler, Jun; Marconcini, Mattia; Su, Rui; Strano, Emanuele; Bernard, Louise; Hallegatte, Stephane; Riom, Capucine; Avner, Paolo
As countries rapidly urbanize, settlements are expanding into hazardous flood zones. This study provides a global analysis of spatial urbanization patterns and the evolution of flood exposure between 1985 and 2015. Using high-resolution annual data, it shows that settlements across the world grew by 85 percent to over 1.28 million square kilometers. In the same period, settlements exposed to the highest flood hazard level increased by 122 percent. In many regions, risky growth is outpacing safe growth, particularly in East Asia, where high-risk settlements have expanded 60 percent faster than safe ones. Developing countries are driving the recent growth of flood exposure: 36,500 square kilometers of settlements were built in the world’s highest-risk zones since 1985–82 percent of which are in low- and middle-income countries. In comparison, recent growth in high-income countries has been relatively slow and safe. These results document a divergence in countries’ exposure to flood hazards. Rather than adapting their exposure to climatic hazards, many countries are actively increasing their exposure.
Efficiency and Equity in Urban Flood Management Policies: A Systematic Urban Economics Exploration
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-02) Liotta, Charlotte; Hallegatte, Stéphane; Avner, Paolo
Flood exposure is likely to increase in the future as a direct consequence of more frequent and more intense flooding and the growth of populations and economic assets in flood-prone areas. Low-income households, which are more likely to be located in high-risk zones, will be particularly affected. This paper assesses the welfare and equity impacts of three flood management policies—risk-based insurance, zoning, and subsidized insurance—using an urban economics framework with two income groups and three potential flood locations. The paper shows that in a first-best setting, risk-based insurance maximizes social welfare. However, depending on flood characteristics, implementing a zoning policy or subsidized insurance is close to optimal and can be more feasible. Subsidizing insurance reduces upward pressure on housing rents but increases flood damage, and is recommended for rare floods occurring in a large part of a city. Zoning policies have the opposite effect, avoiding damage but increasing housing rents, and are recommended for frequent floods in small areas. The social welfare impact of choosing the wrong flood management policy depends on the location of floods relative to employment centers, with flooding close to employment centers being particularly harmful. Implementing flood management policies redistributes flood costs between high- and low-income households through land markets, irrespective of who is directly affected. As such, they are progressive in terms of equity, compared to a laissez-faire scenario with myopic anticipations, in the more common scenario where poorer populations are more exposed to urban floods. But their impacts on inequality depend on flood locations and urban configuration. For instance, in a city where floods are centrally located and low-income households live in the city center, subsidized insurance would mitigate a surge in inequality, whereas a zoning policy could substantially increase inequalities.
Carbon Pricing and Transit Accessibility to Jobs: Impacts on Inequality in Rio de Janeiro and Kinshasa
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-03) Nell, Andrew; Herszenhut, Daniel; Nakamura, Shohei; Saraiva, Marcus; Avner, Paolo; Knudsen, Camilla
Urban transport is a major driver of global carbon dioxide emissions. Without strong mitigation policies, rapid urbanization, especially in developing countries, is expected to exacerbate the problem. There is a growing consensus on the fundamental role of carbon pricing for achieving reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. However, carbon pricing policies are frequently criticized and resisted for having adverse distributional impacts, which could hinder their implementation, particularly when implemented as a fuel levy—which would impact private vehicle usage but may also affect transit services such as buses. Currently, there is a lack of evidence that quantifies these negative impacts, especially on people’s ability to reach economic opportunities and services. To this end, this paper studies the impact of a uniform carbon price, as one of the most commonly discussed climate policies, on access to employment opportunities via transit services in Kinshasa and Rio de Janeiro. Reduced access to jobs would contribute to fragmented urban labor markets and thus lead to negative social outcomes. Unlike most previous studies, this study defines access as being constrained by both travel time and travel budget. The results indicate that fuel price increases (simulating increases induced by a carbon tax) reduce accessibility, but the effect is lower in more compact and walkable cities as well as in cities that have green transit options. The paper also shows that fuel price increases have spatially and socially disparate outcomes, with the lowest income communities not necessarily being the most affected, in part because even in the absence of carbon pricing, they are found to be priced out of using transit services. The results demonstrate the importance of strategies and investments, such as land use planning and decarbonized transit services, but also possibly complementary social protection programs (such as targeted subsidies, or even cash transfers), to mitigate the negative distributional consequences of carbon pricing policies.
Where Are All the Jobs ?: A Machine Learning Approach for High Resolution Urban Employment Prediction in Developing Countries
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-03) Barzin, Samira; Rentschler, Jun; O’Clery, Neave; Avner, Paolo
Globally, both people and economic activity are increasingly concentrated in urban areas. Yet, for the vast majority of developing country cities, little is known about the granular spatial organization of such activity despite its key importance to policy and urban planning. This paper adapts a machine learning based algorithm to predict the spatial distribution of employment using input data from open access sources such as Open Street Map and Google Earth Engine. The algorithm is trained on 14 test cities, ranging from Buenos Aires in Argentina to Dakar in Senegal. A spatial adaptation of the random forest algorithm is used to predict within-city cells in the 14 test cities with extremely high accuracy (R- squared greater than 95 percent), and cells in out-of-sample ”unseen” cities with high accuracy (mean R-squared of 63 percent). This approach uses open data to produce high resolution estimates of the distribution of urban employment for cities where such information does not exist, making evidence-based planning more accessible than ever before.
Predicting Urban Employment Distributions: A Toolkit for More Targeted Urban Investment and Planning Decisions
(Washington, DC, 2022-06) Maruyama Rentschler, Jun Erik; Barzin, Samira; O’Clery, Neave; Avner, Paolo
Cities are intricately interconnected socioeconomic systems, with transport networks connecting people to their jobs, health, and education facilities, and ensuring the smooth functioning of supply chains. When floods happen, they isolate people and firms from these vital networks, causing cascading disruptions and losses. Such floods are not limited to rare and extreme events. Especially in developing country cities, the lack of resilient infrastructure systems means that even regular rainfall events, for example, during rainy seasons, can cause havoc. Attention is often biased towards direct asset losses from floods, rather than the wider economic costs of disrupted networks. This is due primarily to the complex dynamics of economic and infrastructure networks. But public transport and road usage data are also often limited, especially when the predominant modes of transport are informal and walking. So how can we identify and prioritize cost-effective measures for urban resilience This note describes an analytical approach that can help prioritize investments in urban transport resilience and public transport, while also strengthening the economic case for such investments.