Publication:
New Approaches to Closing the Fiscal Gap

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (6.47 MB)
16,593 downloads
Other Files
Spanish PDF (6.74 MB)
141,358 downloads
Portuguese PDF (6.8 MB)
914 downloads
Date
2022-10-04
ISSN
Published
2022-10-04
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
As the COVID‐19 crisis recedes, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is back to work and looking forward. Reported deaths related to the pandemic are low and have plausibly converged to global levels. Yet low vaccination rates in some countries leave them vulnerable to new variants. In most countries, gross domestic product (GDP) and employment have fully recovered their 2019 levels, although forecasted growth rates might be said to be “resiliently mediocre”: banking systems appear sound, and rising debt burdens are manageable so far, but growth is not expected to exceed the low levels of the 2010 decade. Poverty in terms of income (monetary poverty) has largely receded with the economic recovery, but the longer‐term scars of the pandemic in terms of education and health have planted deep seeds of future inequality. Redressing these problems and undertaking the structural reforms needed to reach higher levels of growth and reduce poverty remain central on the policy agenda. The new and unwelcome entrant in the policy space is inflation. While comparable to advanced country levels and well managed by regional monetary authorities, inflation nonetheless is being propelled by forces that may give it more staying power than originally hoped. Finally, public deficits induced by the pandemic and the need to finance critical government programs and directions have opened a fiscal gap and led to constrained fiscal space. The need to close the fiscal gap, put debt on a sustainable footing, and generate fiscal space to finance necessary physical and social investments has led to a search for new revenues and in particular to pressure to increase income taxes. In looking at any tax hike, concerns center on the possible depressive effects on growth, overall progressivity, and possible incentives for informality. This report presents new evidence on these effects for value added taxes (VAT) and income taxes. It also advocates for steps to cut wasteful government spending and increase government efficiency - both to generate substantial resources and as an entry point to a broader agenda of state modernization and generating public trust.
Link to Data Set
Citation
World Bank. 2022. New Approaches to Closing the Fiscal Gap. LAC Semiannual Update; October 2022. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38093 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Citations

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    The State of State Reform in Latin America
    (Palo Alto, CA : Stanford University Press, 2007) Lora, Eduardo
    This book examines four major areas of institutional reform: a) political institutions and the state organization; b) fiscal institutions, such as budget, tax and decentralization institutions; c) public institutions in charge of sectoral economic policies (financial, industrial, and infrastructure); and d) social sector institutions (pensions, social protection, and education). In each of these areas, the authors summarize the reform objectives, describe and measure their scope, assess the main outcomes, and identify the obstacles for implementation, especially those of an institutional nature.
  • Publication
    Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan : Options for Immediate Fiscal Adjustment and Longer Term Consolidation
    (Washington, DC, 2012-11) World Bank
    This report aims to provide options for immediate fiscal adjustment to the government of Jordan and to set the foundations for longer term consolidation. To that effect, an analysis of the dynamics of revenues and expenditures over the years 2000-2011 is undertaken. Specifically, this report attempts to provide options to stop and reverse the declining trend in revenues observed since 2007. Indeed, domestic revenues declined by 9.4 percentage points of GDP between 2007 and 2011. This steady and structural decline in revenues increased the vulnerability of Jordan s public finances to any exogenous shock. Hence, the strong fiscal stress at the eve of the Arab Awakening, due to the pressures to finance widening power sector deficit following the disruption of Egyptian gas supply, and to meet popular demand for additional spending and subsidies. The report also examines: 1) potential sources of savings from current and capital spending, 2) scenarios to reduce power sector deficit including tariff simulations, 3) options to reduce consumer subsidies and target them more efficiently to the poor, and 4) options to reduce the financial deficit of the water sector. The report ranks the measures according to a rating mechanism that takes into account the magnitude of savings, the efficiency improvements in the use of public resources, the distributional impact, previous dynamic of the spending or revenue item in question, the poverty and social impact, and the growth impact. Finally, the report proposes a matrix of policy objectives and actions that identifies areas of policy reform, policy objectives, actions needed to reach this objective, and time horizon.
  • Publication
    Poland - Public Expenditure Review : Analysis of Social Sectors and Public Wages
    (World Bank, 2010-03-08) World Bank
    This report looks at public spending on pensions, education, health, social assistance, labor market programs, and public wages. Presenting the findings of a series of studies and notes compiled sice April 2009, it highlights how reforming such spending, which comprises about one quarter of gross domestic product (GDP), is essential for mitigating the impact of the economic crisis and for transforming Poland from a welfare state to a workfare society in line with Government's Vision 2030. The report has two main messages. First, Poland can take measures to reduce public expenditures on social sectors and public wages by around 2.3 percentage points over the next three years. Second, beyond supporting the fiscal adjustment required in the context of the economic crisis, public expenditure reforms can also help bring about structural changes envisioned as part of the Government's strategy for 2030. This report provides a comprehensive assessment of Poland's social sector and public wage polices and lays out options for reform. The summary report has five parts. The first part lays out the macroeconomic context. It emphasizes that Poland has weathered the global economic crisis remarkably well but that the recovery is likely to be feeble and subject to uncertainty. The next part discusses the fiscal fallout of the crisis and argues that public expenditure reform should be a crucial pillar for fiscal consolidation. Sections three to five contain the main findings of the report. Section three presents a list of important reforms of public expenditures on social sectors and wages in support of Vision 2030. Section four simulates the fiscal impact of public expenditure reforms, with a particular focus on state budget expenditures. The final section discusses how institutional reforms in the areas of medium-term and performance-based budget can support the reform agenda. Volume two presents the detailed analyses of social sectors and institutional reforms of public finance.
  • Publication
    Fiscal Space for Infrastructure Borrowing in South-Eastern Europe : A Suggested Approach
    (Washington, DC, 2006-09) World Bank
    The seven countries of South Eastern Europe (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Romania, and Serbia and Montenegro) are in the process of transition, undertaking significant fiscal adjustment as they seek to move to a path of sustainable growth. Previous high debt has been reduced and/or restructured for most countries, which have committed to a path of fiscal responsibility as one of the key ingredients in the recovery process. Fiscal consolidation is also necessary in order to prepare the ground for future entry into the European Union (EU), including for being in a position to incur expenditures arising from the obligations of future EU membership. A significant amount of new borrowing for infrastructure investment is being contemplated by these countries, often based on bilateral and multilateral funding. This short approach paper seeks to set out the key issues that will need to be kept in mind when evaluating the proposed borrowing and investments. While the note is indicative, and needs to be supplemented by more detailed analysis by each Government, it suggests that caution needs to be exercised in any new borrowing. To the extent that capital expenditure is financed by loans from international institutions and partners, the same word of caution applies to them in their infrastructure lending to the countries of South Eastern Europe.
  • Publication
    Social Gains in the Balance : A Fiscal Policy Challenge for Latin America and the Caribbean
    (Washington, DC, 2014-02-24) World Bank
    In 2012, the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region continued its successful drive to reduce poverty and build the middle class. The proportion of the region's 600 million people living in extreme poverty, defined in the region as life on less than $2.50 a day, was cut in half between 2003 and 2012 to 12.3 percent. Reflecting the upward mobility out of poverty, households vulnerable to falling back into poverty became the largest group in LAC in 2005, and represent almost 38 percent of the population. However, in the last two years, the share of vulnerable households has started to decline. The middle class, currently 34.3 percent of the population, is growing rapidly and is projected to replace the vulnerable as the largest economic group in LAC by 2016. The Southern Cone region (including Brazil) continued to be the most dynamic region and the main driver of poverty reduction in LAC, while poverty in Central America and Mexico proved more stubborn. About 68 percent of poverty reduction between 2003 and 2012 was driven by economic growth, with the remaining 32 percent arising from decline in inequality. Overall, equality of access to basic childhood goods and services has improved in recent years. Yet access can be further improved, and serious issues remain concerning the quality of those goods and services, particularly in education and housing infrastructure. Moreover, access increases with parental education and income or assets, reflecting low intergenerational mobility in many countries in the region. As with poverty reduction, most of the progress in equality of access since 2000 has come in the Southern Cone and the Andean regions, while many of Central America's countries managed only small improvements. There are also severe differences at the subnational level and between urban and rural areas, highlighting the need to strengthen the capacity of local governments to deliver high quality basic services to all their citizens.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    World Development Report 2020
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020) World Bank
    Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. This book examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2012
    (World Bank, 2012) World Bank
    The main message of this year's World development report: gender equality and development is that these patterns of progress and persistence in gender equality matter, both for development outcomes and policy making. They matter because gender equality is a core development objective in its own right. But greater gender equality is also smart economics, enhancing productivity and improving other development outcomes, including prospects for the next generation and for the quality of societal policies and institutions. Economic development is not enough to shrink all gender disparities-corrective policies that focus on persisting gender gaps are essential. This report points to four priority areas for policy going forward. First, reducing gender gaps in human capital-specifically those that address female mortality and education. Second, closing gender gaps in access to economic opportunities, earnings, and productivity. Third, shrinking gender differences in voice and agency within society. Fourth, limiting the reproduction of gender inequality across generations. These are all areas where higher incomes by themselves do little to reduce gender gaps, but focused policies can have a real impact. Gender equality is at the heart of development. It's the right development objective, and it's smart economic policy. The World development report 2012 can help both countries and international partners think through and integrate a focus on gender equality into development policy making and programming.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2021
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-03-24) World Bank
    Today’s unprecedented growth of data and their ubiquity in our lives are signs that the data revolution is transforming the world. And yet much of the value of data remains untapped. Data collected for one purpose have the potential to generate economic and social value in applications far beyond those originally anticipated. But many barriers stand in the way, ranging from misaligned incentives and incompatible data systems to a fundamental lack of trust. World Development Report 2021: Data for Better Lives explores the tremendous potential of the changing data landscape to improve the lives of poor people, while also acknowledging its potential to open back doors that can harm individuals, businesses, and societies. To address this tension between the helpful and harmful potential of data, this Report calls for a new social contract that enables the use and reuse of data to create economic and social value, ensures equitable access to that value, and fosters trust that data will not be misused in harmful ways. This Report begins by assessing how better use and reuse of data can enhance the design of public policies, programs, and service delivery, as well as improve market efficiency and job creation through private sector growth. Because better data governance is key to realizing this value, the Report then looks at how infrastructure policy, data regulation, economic policies, and institutional capabilities enable the sharing of data for their economic and social benefits, while safeguarding against harmful outcomes. The Report concludes by pulling together the pieces and offering an aspirational vision of an integrated national data system that would deliver on the promise of producing high-quality data and making them accessible in a way that promotes their safe use and reuse. By examining these opportunities and challenges, the Report shows how data can benefit the lives of all people, but particularly poor people in low- and middle-income countries.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2018
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018) World Bank
    Every year, the World Bank's World Development Report takes on a topic of central importance to global development. The 2018 Report, Learning to Realize Education's Promise, is the first ever devoted entirely to education. Now is an excellent time for it: education has long been critical for human welfare, but is even more so in a time of rapid economic change. The Report explores four main themes. First, education's promise: Education is a powerful instrument for eradicating poverty and promoting shared prosperity, but fulfilling its potential requires better policies - both within and outside the education system. Second, the learning crisis: Despite gains in education access, recent learning assessments show that many young people around the world, especially from poor families, are leaving school unequipped with even the most foundational skills they need for life. At the same time, internationally comparable learning assessments show that skills in many middle-income countries lag far behind what those countries aspire to. Third, promising interventions to improve learning: Research from areas such as brain science, pedagogical innovations, or school management have identified interventions that promote learning by ensuring that learners are prepared, that teachers are skilled as well as motivated, and that other inputs support the teacher-learner relationship. Fourth, learning at scale: Achieving learning throughout an education system will require more than just scaling up effective interventions. Change requires overcoming technical and political barriers by deploying salient metrics for mobilizing actors and tracking progress, building coalitions for learning, and being adaptive when implementing programs.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2011
    (World Bank, 2011) World Bank
    The 2011 World development report looks across disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world to offer some ideas and practical recommendations on how to move beyond conflict and fragility and secure development. The key messages are important for all countries-low, middle, and high income-as well as for regional and global institutions: first, institutional legitimacy is the key to stability. When state institutions do not adequately protect citizens, guard against corruption, or provide access to justice; when markets do not provide job opportunities; or when communities have lost social cohesion-the likelihood of violent conflict increases. Second, investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs is essential to reducing violence. But there are major structural gaps in our collective capabilities to support these areas. Third, confronting this challenge effectively means that institutions need to change. International agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so they can respond with agility and speed, a longer-term perspective, and greater staying power. Fourth, need to adopt a layered approach. Some problems can be addressed at the country level, but others need to be addressed at a regional level, such as developing markets that integrate insecure areas and pooling resources for building capacity Fifth, in adopting these approaches, need to be aware that the global landscape is changing. Regional institutions and middle income countries are playing a larger role. This means should pay more attention to south-south and south-north exchanges, and to the recent transition experiences of middle income countries.