Publication: Demographic Trends and Urbanization
Loading...
Files in English
2,149 downloads
Date
2021-04
ISSN
Published
2021-04
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
It is now widely accepted that the future is urban. Over 55 percent of the world’s population lived in urban areas in 2018; by 2050, this proportion will grow to two-thirds. The United Nations calls urbanization one of four “demographic mega-trends” (UNDESA 2019), along with population growth, aging, and international migration. Yet patterns of urbanization are highly heterogeneous, both within and across countries. Asia and Africa will see both the largest numbers of urban dwellers and the fastest growth in urbanization. In fact, seven of the ten countries with the fastest projected urbanization rates between 2018 and 2050 are located in Africa. Burundi is expected to urbanize fastest in the coming decades, followed by Nepal and Malawi. Although global urbanization will continue, its pace is expected to slow in the future, with both the absolute size of the urban population and the proportion of urban dwellers likely to grow less rapidly (UNDESA 2019). Already, we are beginning to see shrinking cities in some parts of Eastern Europe, where both total population and urban population are declining. Since urbanization and urban growth are so disparate across geographies, the implications of these trends are also very localized. As Part II of this chapter, we highlight some global demographic trends and their implications for urban areas, while Part III will highlight some regional trends.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank Group. 2021. Demographic Trends and Urbanization. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35469 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Demographic and Economic Overview of the Corridor States : Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal(Washington, DC, 2014-06)Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal, with their high concentration of population, agricultural productivity, and growing manufacturing activities are economically important for India. The construction of the corridor has the potential to increase inter-state connectivity as well as regional linkages with Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the port of Mumbai, which can in turn spur economic activity and regional integration. The purpose of this report is to provide an overview of demographic trends, human development indicators, and economic structure in the six states, as a preliminary repository of data and analysis. This report is intended to help identify detailed technical assistance, better inform policy priorities, and well-targeted investment decisions that leverage planned and ongoing infrastructure projects such as the corridor. The report is structured as follows: (1) introduction; (2) overview of the six corridor states encompassing urbanization, poverty, human development performance, and economic profiles; (3) state-level overview of demographic and economic development performance, disaggregated economic structure, and commodity movements; and (4) conclusion.Publication Arab Republic of Egypt Urban Sector Note : Volume 1. Urban Sector Update(Washington, DC, 2008-06)The objective of this paper is to present a succinct and up-to-date review of the urban sector in Egypt, with a focus on issues for which there is new insight or emerging government interest. The two main themes of the report are the challenges facing the urban sector and the policy implications at various levels of government. Some of the reports mains findings are: urbanization in Egypt takes on forms and processes which are not well understood and as a consequence urban policies are sometimes weak or counter productive; until now policies and actions in the urban sector have mainly consisted of State driven, supply-side interventions; due to the focus on development in the desert, the dynamics of urbanism in the Nile Valley and Delta, which together contain over 95 percent of the country's population, have largely been ignored; and finally it is rare that government of Egypt's urban development projects include a strategy of capturing the appreciation value of their investments ("unearned increment"), cross-subsidization or cost recovery. The note concludes with a set of recommendations of ways to improve the government's response to the urban challenge.Publication Sri Lanka - Demographic Transition : Facing the Challenges of an Aging Population with Few Resources(Washington, DC, 2012-10)As a result of low fertility rates and high life expectancy, the current demographic trends in Sri Lanka include a declining share of children and increasing share of elderly, and (for now) an increasing working age population. Sri Lanka has a unique window of opportunity to take advantage of the high share of working age population to stimulate economic growth, but the other two emerging population issues spur questions on their own. In this context, the report discusses some of the economic implications of demographic transition in Sri Lanka, focusing on employment and productivity related issues on one side; and performance of cash transfer programs aiming to assist the poor and vulnerable groups on the other. This report quantifies Sri Lanka's demographic change by providing updated population projections and by applying National Transfers Accounts methodology documenting how the demographic change and aging contribute to life-cycle deficit and to Sri Lanka's employment and labor market. The challenges and opportunities associated with the upcoming demographic transition are highlighted, focusing on the functioning of the labor markets and the social safety net system. The report discusses different avenues that the country can take to make its labor market more efficient and inclusive, and offset some of the disadvantages faced by the poor and vulnerable households. The analysis in this report suggests that timely policy actions can enable Sri Lanka to effectively cope with its changing demographic structure.Publication Sri Lankan Population Change and Demographic Bonus Challenges and Opportunities in the New Millennium(Washington, DC, 2012-11)This paper examines the population changes and the related causative factors, namely fertility, mortality and international migration in Sri Lanka. During the past decades, the total size, as well as the age and sex structure of the population, was exposed to irreversible changes. The age structure transition has produced a demographic bonus conducive for an economic takeoff. During this period, the proportion of people of working age (15-59) is larger than the fraction in the dependent age categories. The paper includes a sector analysis of the employed population in the agriculture, industry and service sectors to identify the growth sectors of the economy and to reveal the potential patterns and levels of utilization of the demographic bonus. Finally, the social safety net implications of the emerging population, such as the dependency burden, aging, disability and the disintegration of traditional family system in Sri Lanka are examined. Sri Lanka's population has grown to 20 million in 2010, an almost eight-fold increase since the census of 1871. The population doubled 54 years after the first census (1925), then again in 35 years (1960), as a result of the relatively high population growth rate. The 2001 census calculated a population 18.7 million. By 2003, the population was estimated to be 19.2 million, a third doubling in 43 years. By 2010, the population of Sri Lanka had passed the 20 million mark.Publication An Overview of the Urban Landscape in South Sudan(Washington, DC, 2011-11)This study responds to the need for information and analysis on the urban sector in South Sudan, to inform the Bank's policy dialogue with the Government of the Republic of South Sudan (GoSS) on urban and local government issues, and to inform the design of future Bank assistance. The first phase of this analytical exercise, which is the focus of this report, develops an overview of the urban landscape. A second phase of this analytical work is planned, that will build on the findings emerging from this first phase. The report is structured as follows: section two describes the evolution of the spatial system in South Sudan and highlights key urbanization patterns and trends; section three provides an overview of the legal, institutional and financial composition of South Sudan's urban areas; and section four outlines the key policy issues and recommendations. The report also draws on an in-depth case study of Juba, which is included as an annex to the report.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-29)Commodity prices are set to fall sharply this year, by about 12 percent overall, as weakening global economic growth weighs on demand. In 2026, commodity prices are projected to reach a six-year low. Oil prices are expected to exert substantial downward pressure on the aggregate commodity index in 2025, as a marked slowdown in global oil consumption coincides with expanding supply. The anticipated commodity price softening is broad-based, however, with more than half of the commodities in the forecast set to decrease this year, many by more than 10 percent. The latest shocks to hit commodity markets extend a so far tumultuous decade, marked by the highest level of commodity price volatility in at least half a century. Between 2020 and 2024, commodity price swings were frequent and sharp, with knock-on consequences for economic activity and inflation. In the next two years, commodity prices are expected to put downward pressure on global inflation. Risks to the commodity price projections are tilted to the downside. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in global growth—driven by worsening trade relations or a prolonged tightening of financial conditions—could further depress commodity demand, especially for industrial products. In addition, if OPEC+ fully unwinds its voluntary supply cuts, oil production will far exceed projected consumption. There are also important upside risks to commodity prices—for instance, if geopolitical tensions worsen, threatening oil and gas supplies, or if extreme weather events lead to agricultural and energy price spikes.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-11)The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.