Publication: Kazakhstan Reversing Productivity Stagnation: Country Economic Memorandum
Loading...
Date
2019
ISSN
Published
2019
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
After experiencing exceptional economic growth in the 2000s, Kazakhstan’s economy has slowed sharply since the global financial crisis, putting development achievements at risk. The economic slowdown has been caused by sharply lower commodity prices, and structural degradation of the economy. Kazakhstan’s productivity growth has steadily fallen over the past two decades. Falling within-sector productivity improvements are the driving force behind Kazakhstan’s productivity slowdown. The private sector is significantly constrained and does not exhibit many important features of healthy private sectors worldwide. Empirical evidence suggests that business entry rates are relatively low in Kazakhstan, even controlling for the structure of economy. The evidence shows that new (and small) firms are more productive than older (and larger) firms. The corrosive patterns must be corrected to revive productivity, which is essential for higher economic growth - since higher investment cannot substitute for productivity growth in the long run. The first policy imperative is to level the playing field for all firms - well-connected or otherwise. The second policy is to strengthen the rule of law and to deal more aggressively and comprehensively with corruption. Third, the governments will need to introduce structural changes in the economy to boost private investment and reduce a disproportionately large role of the state in the economy.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2019. Kazakhstan Reversing Productivity Stagnation: Country Economic Memorandum. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31348 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Bulgaria - Accelerating Bulgaria's Convergence : Volume 2. The Challenge of Rasing Productivity(Washington, DC, 2007-07)The report aims to assist the Bulgarian authorities in identifying options for policies and reforms that would help to boost productivity and employment and thereby economic growth and income convergence. To achieve this, the report looks at Bulgaria's product and labor markets, human resource development, and R&D and innovation system. The reform options are arranged along a time dimension, ranging from short to medium term. The implications of the proposed policy options for the government's budget are also briefly explored, including the utilization of EU grant funds. The report concentrates mostly on the supply-side aspects of Bulgaria's product and labor markets, its education (primary and general secondary, VET, tertiary) delivery, and its R&D and innovation system.Publication Lao PDR - Labor Standards and Productivity in the Garments Export Sector : A Survey of Managers and Workers(Washington, DC, 2012-07)This report describes labor practices in the Lao garments export sector as seen by both management and labor. The main objective of this report is to present the differing perspectives on working conditions between managers and workers, and to explore ways in which the Lao garment sector could break out of this unsustainable situation. More specifically, insights on management practices, working conditions and worker motivation, as well as industry technology and workflow practices, are drawn from the survey and recommendations made on what firms, industry, government and development partners can do to boost productivity in the sector. This study seeks to investigate further possible factors contributing to low-productivity including management practices, working conditions and worker motivation, as well as industry technology and workflow practices. In order for the garment sector to progress, this study points to possibilities to increase worker wellbeing, reduce turnover and improve productivity through mutually reinforcing actions. Possible interventions include: a transition support program and improved labor market information systems to support labor force entry; better worker representation and dispute resolution mechanisms; and, a factories improvement program that would include monitoring/certification systems to provide incentives for firms to improve conditions as a means of accessing elusive premium buyers.Publication Unleashing Prosperity : Productivity Growth in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2008)The analysis presented in this report assembles, for the first time, evidence from a variety of sources in the countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union to show that policy and institutional reforms are important in achieving higher productivity growth. However, significant challenges remain in sustaining that growth. Many countries that started the reform process early, such as the new member states of the European Union, have come to resemble advanced market economies and face challenges in competing successfully in the global economy that are similar to the challenges faced by other European countries. For these new European Union members, the report argues, policies that facilitate innovation and firm expansion will be a key. But for other countries that started the reform process later, such as the countries of Southeastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, there is still a need to address the legacy of transition. For these countries, policies that accelerate restructuring and ease the entry and exit of firms will continue to be essential. This report - part of a series of regional studies of the World Bank's Europe and Central Asia region that has already covered poverty and inequality, the enhancement of job opportunities, trade and integration, migration and remittances, and the challenges posed by aging populations is intended as a contribution to the author thinking about how the World Bank may work more effectively with client states and other partners in the region to promote growth and foster higher living standards in a rapidly changing World.Publication Europe 2020 Romania : Evidence-based Policies for Productivity, Employment, and Skills Enhancement(Washington, DC, 2013-07-29)Employment and skills are at the core of Europe 2020, the European Union's (EU) competitiveness strategy, and are decisive for high productivity and sustained growth. Romania has overcome significant challenges on its path to EU membership and in the early years thereafter. However, the Romanian economy has recently come under pressure as a result of the economic crisis and because important reforms in employment and education have not yet been completed. The Europe 2020 Romania report discusses the key challenges currently faced by Romania in the area of productive employment, and proposes a set of steps the Romanian government could consider in order to reach the Europe 2020 targets. Skills remain a major challenge. In particular, there is insufficient provision of the higher level generic and technical skills needed for a modern and competitive economy, including skills for technological innovation and absorption of new technologies. While Romania performs comparatively well in terms of higher education participation rates, there are concerns about early school leavers and the quality of provision, in particular at the tertiary level but also at earlier stages. Skills shortages are a major constraint to economic growth, together with labor participation. For Romania to achieve its Europe 2020 employment target it must increase employment rates, starting with the labor force participation of women, youth and older workers. Achieving the Europe 2020 employment target in Romania thus hinges especially on increasing the labor force participation of the population beyond the age of 55, especially of women. Romania could expand its labor force by at least 25 percent if older workers fulfilled their participation potential. This report argues that by combining policies in two key areas, Romania can achieve its Europe 2020 employment target and go beyond that. The most relevant policy factors under the two pillars: 1) in the short and medium term, policy reforms to enable a faster dynamic of job creation by the private sector; and 2) in the short to longer term, policies to foster the adaptability and productivity of a shrinking and aging workforce.Publication Beyond Oil : Kazakhstan's Path to Greater Prosperity through Diversifying, Volume 1. Overview(Washington, DC, 2013-06)Kazakhstan aspires to become one of the world s 30 most developed economies by 2050. The focus is on laying the basis for the accelerated diversification of the economy through industrialization and infrastructure development, including enhancing human capital to drive innovation and economic efficiency. This country economic memorandum report adopts an analytical framework that looks into options that will be explored to help authorities think about diversification across three sectors: diversification of products and services; diversification of economic partners; and diversification of endowments. Five chapters structure this report, outlining the weaknesses and strengths of the Kazakh economy that will need to be addressed for increased prosperity. Chapter 1 discusses Kazakhstan s natural resources and how important it is to focus on the policies that matter for development and diversification. Chapter 2 focuses on export concentration and assesses whether resource dependence leads to macroeconomic volatility, whether Kazakhstan has been able to avoid volatility, and what macro-policy solutions are available to Kazakhstan. Chapter 3 looks at the structure of employment in the country and assesses whether Kazakh workers have the skills demanded by the market. Chapter 4 analyzes the regulatory environment and how well market institutions have developed to strengthen the quality of institutions. Chapter 5 uses the product space analysis to assess where Kazakhstan s comparative advantages are. It then discusses whether the country has faced excessive trade barriers, whether there is a role for industrial policy, and what will be done in the short term to help diversification.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication South Asia Development Update, April 2025: Taxing Times(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-23)Growth prospects for South Asia have dimmed. The global economic environment has become more challenging and is a source of heightened downside risks. After a decade of repeated disruptions, South Asia’s buffers to cushion new shocks are slim. Tackling some of its greatest inefficiencies and vulnerabilities could help South Asia navigate this unusually uncertain outlook: unproductive agricultural sectors, dependence on energy imports, pressures from rising global temperatures, and fragile fiscal positions. For most South Asian countries, increased revenue mobilization is a prerequisite for strengthening fiscal positions. Even taking into account the particular challenges of collecting taxes in South Asian economies—such as widespread informal economic activity and large agriculture sectors—South Asian economies face larger tax gaps than the average emerging market and developing economy (EMDE). This suggests the need for improved tax policy and administration. Until fiscal positions have strengthened, the burden of climate adaptation will disproportionately fall on the private sector. If allowed sufficient flexibility, private sector adaptation could offset about one-third of the likely climate damage by 2050. This may, however, require governments to remove obstacles that prevent workers and firms from moving across locations and activities. As growth prospects dim, the challenge grows to create jobs for South Asia’s rapidly expanding working-age population. South Asia’s large diasporas could become a source of strength if their knowledge, networks, and other resources can be better tapped for investment and trade.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Spring 2025: Accelerating Growth through Entrepreneurship, Technology Adoption, and Innovation(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-23)Business dynamism and economic growth in Europe and Central Asia have weakened since the late 2000s, with productivity growth driven largely by resource reallocation between firms and sectors rather than innovation. To move up the value chain, countries need to facilitate technology adoption, stronger domestic competition, and firm-level innovation to build a more dynamic private sector. Governments should move beyond broad support for small- and medium-sized enterprises and focus on enabling the most productive firms to expand and compete globally. Strengthening competition policies, reducing the presence of state-owned enterprises, and ensuring fair market access are crucial. Limited availability of long-term financing and risk capital hinders firm growth and innovation. Economic disruptions are a shock in the short term, but they provide an opportunity for implementing enterprise and structural reforms, all of which are essential for creating better-paying jobs and helping countries in the region to achieve high-income status.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.Publication Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-29)Commodity prices are set to fall sharply this year, by about 12 percent overall, as weakening global economic growth weighs on demand. In 2026, commodity prices are projected to reach a six-year low. Oil prices are expected to exert substantial downward pressure on the aggregate commodity index in 2025, as a marked slowdown in global oil consumption coincides with expanding supply. The anticipated commodity price softening is broad-based, however, with more than half of the commodities in the forecast set to decrease this year, many by more than 10 percent. The latest shocks to hit commodity markets extend a so far tumultuous decade, marked by the highest level of commodity price volatility in at least half a century. Between 2020 and 2024, commodity price swings were frequent and sharp, with knock-on consequences for economic activity and inflation. In the next two years, commodity prices are expected to put downward pressure on global inflation. Risks to the commodity price projections are tilted to the downside. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in global growth—driven by worsening trade relations or a prolonged tightening of financial conditions—could further depress commodity demand, especially for industrial products. In addition, if OPEC+ fully unwinds its voluntary supply cuts, oil production will far exceed projected consumption. There are also important upside risks to commodity prices—for instance, if geopolitical tensions worsen, threatening oil and gas supplies, or if extreme weather events lead to agricultural and energy price spikes.