Publication: Small Countries with Volatile Revenue: Botswana and Bhutan
Loading...
Date
2015-01
ISSN
Published
2015-01
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Bhutan and Botswana share a number of similarities. The two countries, land locked small states, have grown rapidly over the past few decades, boosted by sustained, large-scale inflows of foreign exchange. Botswana’s annual real growth rate averaged 9 percent over the past 40 years, driven by diamond exploration, whereas Bhutan has taken full advantage of generous foreign aid inflows to achieve an average growth rate of 8 percent per year for the past 30 years. However, after decades of rapid growth, the production base of both countries remains very narrow and the economy continues to directly or indirectly dependent on government demand. Job creation, particularly for the youths, is an important policy issue. Despite these similarities, Bhutan and Botswana exhibit an interesting contrast with regard to the management of volatile foreign exchange inflows, and its macroeconomic consequences. Notwithstanding the serious impact of the recent global crisis, today Botswana’s external position remains solid, guarded by sizable international reserves and low external debt. In contrast, Bhutan has accumulated large external debt and its international reserves are under significant pressure. This paper discusses Bhutan and Botswana’s experiences with managing volatile foreign exchange inflows. It assesses the nature and domestic economic consequences of volatile flows, and analyzes the policy measures that have been used to respond to revenue volatility. The structure of the paper is as follows. Section two analyzes Botswana’s experience of managing large, volatile diamond export earnings. Section three reviews more recent experience of Bhutan. Section four draws policy lessons from the experience of two countries. Finally section five concludes the paper.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Kojo, Naoko C.. 2015. Small Countries with Volatile Revenue: Botswana and Bhutan. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22394 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update, July 2010(Washington, DC, 2010-07)The improvement in public finances since last year, coupled with buoyant revenue due to the commodity price recovery, has led to growing pressures for increased government spending. Recently approved budget amendments envisage a 4.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) increase in spending on the originally approved 2010 budget, while the Mid-Term Budget Framework (MTBF) for 2011-2013 projects another 12.1 percent of GDP increase in spending in 2011. The main driver for the increases is the execution of promises made by both coalition parties to distribute monthly percentage rate, or MNT 1.5million (around US$1000) to each citizen in the form of cash and non-cash handouts and large public sector wage increases planned for October of this year. If these public spending plans materialize, they will set the stage for a renewed bout of high inflation and a possible return to the macroeconomic vulnerability characteristic of the boom-and-bust cycle of the recent past. In the real sector, the impact of increasing inflation is evidenced through a decline in real wages. The latest informal wage survey indicates that on average, workers' nominal wages have increased by about 10 percent from January 2010 to June 2010; this is because of an increase in job opportunities in the construction sector. Real wages, however, have declined on average due to the significant increase in the consumer price index.Publication Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update, April 2011(Washington, DC, 2011-04)Mongolia's prospects in the medium term look excellent from a growth perspective as well as a fiscal management perspective. Staying the course in the medium term means implementing the landmark Fiscal Stability Law (FSL) passed last year, and adopting a supportive integrated budget law this spring session of parliament. The economy grew 6.1 percent year-on-year (yoy) in 2010, following a contraction of 1.3 percent in 2009. The last quarter of 2010 ended with a broad-based recovery, supported by transportation, construction and wholesale and retail trade. The latest survey conducted in informal labor markets in March 2011 revealed no changes in the total number of casual workers compared to December. Mongolia has promising growth prospects. It has the opportunity now to exercise prudent fiscal and macroeconomic policies so it can steer clear of the mistakes made by other resource rich economies and achieve its potential.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2010(World Bank, 2010)The world economy is emerging from the throes of a historically deep and synchronized recession provoked by the bursting of a global financial bubble. The consequences of the initial bubble and the crisis have been felt in virtually every economy, whether or not it participated directly in the risky behaviors that precipitated the boom-and-bust cycle. And while growth rates have picked up, the depth of the recession means that it will take years before unemployment and spare capacity are reabsorbed. This year's global economic prospects examines the consequences of the crisis for both the short and medium term growth prospects of developing countries. It concludes that the crisis and the regulatory reaction to the financial excesses of the preceding several years may have lasting impacts on financial markets, raising borrowing costs and lowering levels of credit and international capital flows. As a result, the rate of growth of potential output in developing countries may be reduced by between 0.2 and 0.7 percentage points annually over the next five to seven years as economies adjust to tighter financial conditions. Overall, the level of potential output in developing countries could be reduced by between 3.4 and 8 percent over the long run, compared with its pre-crisis path. The report further finds that the very liquid conditions of the first half of the decade contributed to the expansion in credit available in developing countries and that this expansion was responsible for about 40 percent of the approximately 1.5 percentage point acceleration of the pace at which many developing-country economies could grow without generating significant inflation. While developing countries probably cannot reverse the expected tightening in international financial conditions, there is considerable scope for reducing domestic borrowing costs, or increasing productivity and thereby regaining the higher growth path that the crisis has derailed.Publication Mongolia Economic Update, April 2013(World Bank Group, Mongolia, 2013-04)In 2012, Mongolia's economy continued to experience a high growth rate of 12.3 percent. This growth rate was however lower than anticipated as Mongolia saw its coal exports drop significantly due to China's economic slowdown. Most noticeably, Mongolia had to finance a large fiscal deficit of 8.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), a record in the last 13 years. It is concerning that similar fiscal trends might continue in 2013 with the economy growing at a double-digit rate but also accumulating another large fiscal deficit. As Mongolia embarks on its largest infrastructure investments ever which can be in part financed through a first successful sovereign Chinggis bonds issuance- greater attention has to be paid: (i) to preparing those investments rigorously to ensure maximum socioeconomic return and avoid potential wastage of public resources; and (ii) to reflecting their financing transparently in the national budget.Publication Africa's Macroeconomic Story(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-10)Much of Sub-Saharan Africa's post-independence macroeconomic history has been characterized by boom-bust cycles. Growth accelerations have been common, but short lived. Weak policy formulation and implementation led to large external and fiscal imbalances, excessive debt accumulation, volatile inflation, and sharp exchange rate fluctuations. This characterization changed, however, in the mid-1990s, when debt relief and better macroeconomic policy began to provide a source of stability that has helped sustain robust growth throughout much of the region. In resource rich countries, the process was supported over the past few years by a dramatic increase in commodity prices. But resources are only one part of the story. Growth has exhibited impressive resilience even in the face of negative external shocks, as in 2008-2009. While the short-term outlook remains positive, over the medium term policy makers face new challenges. Several countries have the potential to greatly expand natural resource production and become major commodity exporters; volatile resource revenue will complicate their fiscal and monetary planning. Rising investor appetite for financial assets of frontier markets and the development of domestic debt markets will continue to broaden the menu of and trade-offs among financing options at a time when global interest rates may start sloping upward. Complex financing arrangements -- notably for private-public or public-public partnerships in infrastructure -- will become more common and will generate new types of fiscal commitments and contingencies.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Impact Evaluation in Practice, Second Edition(Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank and World Bank, 2016-09-13)The second edition of the Impact Evaluation in Practice handbook is a comprehensive and accessible introduction to impact evaluation for policy makers and development practitioners. First published in 2011, it has been used widely across the development and academic communities. The book incorporates real-world examples to present practical guidelines for designing and implementing impact evaluations. Readers will gain an understanding of impact evaluations and the best ways to use them to design evidence-based policies and programs. The updated version covers the newest techniques for evaluating programs and includes state-of-the-art implementation advice, as well as an expanded set of examples and case studies that draw on recent development challenges. It also includes new material on research ethics and partnerships to conduct impact evaluation. The handbook is divided into four sections: Part One discusses what to evaluate and why; Part Two presents the main impact evaluation methods; Part Three addresses how to manage impact evaluations; Part Four reviews impact evaluation sampling and data collection. Case studies illustrate different applications of impact evaluations. The book links to complementary instructional material available online, including an applied case as well as questions and answers. The updated second edition will be a valuable resource for the international development community, universities, and policy makers looking to build better evidence around what works in development.Publication Boom, Bust and Up Again? Evolution, Drivers and Impact of Commodity Prices: Implications for Indonesia(World Bank, Jakarta, 2010-12)Indonesia is one of the largest commodity exporters in the world, and given its mineral potential and expected commodity price trends, it could and should expand its leading position. Commodities accounted for one fourth of Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and more than one fifth of total government revenue in 2007. The potential for further commodity growth is considerable. Indonesia is the largest producer of palm oil in the world (export earnings totaled almost US$9 billion in 2007 and employment 3.8 million full-time jobs) and the sector has good growth prospects. It is also one of the countries with the largest mining potential in view of its second-largest copper reserves and third-largest coal and nickel reserves in the world. This report consists of seven chapters. The first six chapters present an examination and an analysis of the factors driving increased commodity prices, price forecasts, economic impact of commodity price increases, effective price stabilization policies, and insights from Indonesia's past growth experience. The final chapter draws on the findings of the previous chapters and suggests a development strategy for Indonesia in the context of high commodity prices. This section summarizes the contents of the chapters and their main findings.Publication Poverty Reduction in Indonesia : Constructing a New Strategy(Washington, DC, 2001-10-29)The objective of the report is to point at the need for a new poverty strategy, and the areas of action it should cover, where each area should be specifically discussed, addressing the lives of Indonesia's poor, and the tradeoffs policymakers will need to consider, based on the belief that this poverty strategy should emerge from a broad dialogue among stakeholders. First, in broadening poverty, the report looks at the facts of the late 1990s crisis, which revealed the precariousness of Indonesia's gains in reducing expenditure-based poverty. Thus to extend those gains, the poverty strategy needs to be defined, and then redeveloped by acknowledging the multidimensional reality of poverty, and, it is this notion which will lead to making the strategic choices. Second, within the country's political transition to a democratic, decentralized mode of governance, a poverty strategy needs to be consistent with an empowered populace, and democratic policymaking mechanisms. In creating a policy environment for raising the incomes of the poor, the report identifies the resumption of rapid sustainable growth, with rising real wages, employment opportunities, and, limited inflation, including the economic empowerment of the poor, enhanced by poverty-focused public expenditures. Inevitably, the provision of core public services is an area which should address the people's will in local governance policies, focusing on education and health, while providing appropriate infrastructure, and developing safety nets.Publication World Development Report 2009(World Bank, 2009)Places do well when they promote transformations along the dimensions of economic geography: higher densities as cities grow; shorter distances as workers and businesses migrate closer to density; and fewer divisions as nations lower their economic borders and enter world markets to take advantage of scale and trade in specialized products. World Development Report 2009 concludes that the transformations along these three dimensions density, distance, and division are essential for development and should be encouraged. The conclusion is controversial. Slum-dwellers now number a billion, but the rush to cities continues. A billion people live in lagging areas of developing nations, remote from globalizations many benefits. And poverty and high mortality persist among the world’s bottom billion, trapped without access to global markets, even as others grow more prosperous and live ever longer lives. Concern for these three intersecting billions often comes with the prescription that growth must be spatially balanced. This report has a different message: economic growth will be unbalanced. To try to spread it out is to discourage it to fight prosperity, not poverty. But development can still be inclusive, even for people who start their lives distant from dense economic activity. For growth to be rapid and shared, governments must promote economic integration, the pivotal concept, as this report argues, in the policy debates on urbanization, territorial development, and regional integration. Instead, all three debates overemphasize place-based interventions. Reshaping Economic Geography reframes these debates to include all the instruments of integration spatially blind institutions, spatially connective infrastructure, and spatially targeted interventions. By calibrating the blend of these instruments, today’s developers can reshape their economic geography. If they do this well, their growth will still be unbalanced, but their development will be inclusive.Publication World Development Report 2004(World Bank, 2003)Too often, services fail poor people in access, in quality, and in affordability. But the fact that there are striking examples where basic services such as water, sanitation, health, education, and electricity do work for poor people means that governments and citizens can do a better job of providing them. Learning from success and understanding the sources of failure, this year’s World Development Report, argues that services can be improved by putting poor people at the center of service provision. How? By enabling the poor to monitor and discipline service providers, by amplifying their voice in policymaking, and by strengthening the incentives for providers to serve the poor. Freedom from illness and freedom from illiteracy are two of the most important ways poor people can escape from poverty. To achieve these goals, economic growth and financial resources are of course necessary, but they are not enough. The World Development Report provides a practical framework for making the services that contribute to human development work for poor people. With this framework, citizens, governments, and donors can take action and accelerate progress toward the common objective of poverty reduction, as specified in the Millennium Development Goals.