Publication: Out of School and Out of Work: Risk and Opportunities for Latin America’s Ninis
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2016-01-19
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2015-07-29
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One in five youth aged 15 to 24 in Latin America is out of school and not working (ninis). Nearly 60 percent of ninis in the region are from poor or vulnerable households in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution, and 66 percent are women. At the same time, it is men who account for the growth in 2 million ninis during the last 20 years. The study undertakes a comprehensive diagnosis quantifying the problem, develops a conceptual framework identifying the determinants of youths' choices, uses all the available data to test the theoretical implications, and reviews the evidence regarding interventions that have proven effective in keeping youth in school and helping them become employed. The findings of the study offer policy makers in the region with options to provide opportunities to the region's 20 million ninis.
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“de Hoyos, Rafael; Rogers, Halsey; Székely, Miguel. 2016. Out of School and Out of Work: Risk and Opportunities for Latin America’s Ninis. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22349 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Out of School and Out of Work(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-01)Using all the household survey data available in Latin America during the period 1992 to 2013, this paper estimates that in 2015, 20 million youth ages 15 to 24 years in the region were out of school and not working (making them ninis, for "ni estudian ni trabajan"). The share of out-of–school, out-of-work youth in Latin America, at about 19 percent, is roughly equal to the global average of 22 percent. Although women make up over two-thirds of the ninis in the region, the number of male ninis grew by 46 percent between 1992 and 2010. As a result, the absolute number of ninis rose over the two-decade period, even as women's education and employment rates were improving. Global comparisons show that Latin America is the region of the world with the largest concentration of ninis among households in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution. Coupled with the long-lasting harm it causes to the youth's future labor-market outcomes, the high incidence of ninis among the poorest households tends to lock in income disparities from one generation to the next, obstructing social mobility and poverty reduction in the region.Publication Out of School and Out of Work(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-09)The proportion of youth that is not in work or in school or ninis1 in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) remains high. The latest estimates show that about 19 per cent of 15-24 years olds in the region, were in this status in 2010 (de Hoyos, Rogers and Popova (2013). This status entails a series of negative implications for the life-cycle development of the youth involved with a break in the human capital accumulation process that translates into a reduction in future productivity and labor market outcomes. A large share of ninis might also entail risks for society at large through potential short-term effects such as crime rates, and through the long-term sequels from not fully capitalizing on the ‘demographic window of opportunity’ of historically low economic dependency ratios, among others. The objective of this paper is to develop a conceptual framework for laying out the main elements involved in the dynamics of choices and restrictions faced by youth in the 15-24 age range. The paper also discusses different approaches that could be used to test the empirical validity of the theoretical implications presented here. The paper includes four sections. Section two starts with a simple characterization of the life-cycle transition of time uses for youth in LAC. Section three introduces a more formal presentation of what underlies these processes and what impact they may have. Section four addresses the considerations for empirical analyses and policy discussion. The last section includes some final remarks.Publication Dropout in Upper Secondary Education in Mexico : Patterns, Consequences and Possible Causes(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-11)This study examines the causes and effects of low enrollment and high dropout rates at the upper secondary level in Mexico, where upper secondary completion rates are well below those of other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries and the regional average. Through a disaggregated analysis of coverage, absorption, and dropout data in secondary education at the state level, the study categorizes states according to the stage in the educational cycle at which dropout primarily occurs. The study further examines the academic, social, and economic consequences of dropout through an analysis of employment and youth survey data. The analysis of factors associated with dropout uses self-reported factors as well as estimated probit models that use household data from national surveys and the national standardized test. The central conclusion reached is that in addition to the patterns of dropout found, multiple elements intersect with the patterns to form a complex panorama. Key findings include: i) personal, family, and household economic factors and the prevalence of social risks have a closer association with dropout earlier in the education cycle; ii) the association between dropout and the quality of education has greater intensity in states where dropout occurs primarily during upper secondary education and in those with the lowest upper secondary dropout rates; and iii) as the returns to education grow, dropout is lower; in the case of returns to higher education, the association with dropout is stronger for states that have the highest dropout during upper secondary education. This complexity merits differentiated responses, which are explored through a brief look at relevant international approaches.Publication Analyzing the Dynamics of School Dropout in Upper Secondary Education in Latin America(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2015-03)This study examines trends in school dropout at the upper secondary education level across Latin America over the past two decades, and attempts to identify factors influencing these rates. The methodology contributes to the existing literature by employing repeated cross sections of data to track the life cycle path of representative groups of individuals belonging to a birth cohort, by constructing and analyzing a synthetic data base of household survey data from 18 countries. A key finding is that while upper secondary enrollment rates increased in the region, the proportion of upper secondary age youth dropping out of school has remained persistently high, despite relatively favorable macroeconomic conditions. Furthermore, the study traces the moment in the life cycle at which the majority of dropout takes place to reveal differences between countries. Finally, to explain the trends in upper secondary dropout rates, the study examines the impact of three groups of factors: (i) shifts in the cohort size and socioeconomic composition of the population eligible for entering upper secondary education; (b) the macroeconomic environment and labor market opportunities; and (c) the returns to schooling. A series of regressions shows that an important factor that may be driving higher dropout levels has been the higher numbers of students from poor socioeconomic backgrounds reaching the upper secondary level. In addition, high returns to education have been a pull factor into the schooling system, while, especially in countries where the majority of youth dropout early (prior to upper secondary education), the data confirm an apparent substitution effect due to the opportunity cost of forgoing employment opportunities. Overall, the findings confirm the importance of policy makers' focus on upper secondary education across Latin America and suggest implications for focusing the policy agenda.Publication Youth Out of School and Out of Work in Latin America(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-09)This paper examines the phenomena of high rates of youth that are out of school and out of work in Latin America. The analysis pursues a dynamic approach by constructing a pseudo-panel from 234 household surveys for 18 countries in the region that allow tracing the life cycle trajectories of different cohorts over time. The trajectories are associated with a series of variables characterizing the household, community, and macro environment in which schooling and labor market participation decisions take place. The most important result obtained is that the persistently high rates of being out of school and out of work among males are strongly associated with greater labor force participation by women, which can be generating a “crowding out” effect against men, given slow job creation rates across the region. The analysis also explores the possibility of scarring effects, and finds that higher shares of out of school and out of work youth at ages 15–20 years are associated with lower wages for the same cohorts later in life, at ages 35–40 years, for males and females. As for employment prospects, the analysis finds scarring effects only for females, with greater out of school and out of work youth shares being related to lower proportions of women in the labor market later in the life cycle.
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