Publication: The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short and Medium Term Estimates for Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone
Loading...
Date
2014-09-17
ISSN
Published
2014-09-17
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The 2014 outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa has taken a horrible human toll. Although the outbreak originated in rural Guinea, it has hit hardest in Liberia and Sierra Leone, in part because it has reached urban areas in these two countries, a factor that distinguishes this outbreak from previous episodes elsewhere. As of September 10, 2014, there had been 2,281 recorded deaths out of 4,614 suspected or confirmed cases of Ebola. Experts fear that the true numbers may be two to four times larger, due to underreporting. Misery and suffering have been intense, especially in Liberia where doctors have had to turning patients away for lack of space in Ebola treatment centers. Inevitably, before the outbreak is contained the human impacts will increase considerably over these numbers. Epidemiological estimates are acknowledged as highly uncertain and are not the subject of this note. What is certain is that limiting the human cost will require significant financial resources and a concerted partnership between international partners and the affected countries. Particularly in Liberia and Sierra Leone, government capacity is already overrun and the epidemic is impacting macroeconomic activity and budgetary resources. This note informs the response to the epidemic by estimating these macroeconomic and fiscal effects. Any such exercise is necessarily highly imprecise due to limited data and many uncertain factors, but it is still necessary in order to plan the economic assistance that must accompany the immediate humanitarian response. The goal is to help affected countries to recover and return to the robust economic growth they had experienced until the offset of this crisis.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2014. The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short and Medium Term Estimates for Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20218 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short and Medium Term Estimates for West Africa(Washington, DC, 2014-10-07)The 2014 outbreak of the Ebola virus disease in West Africa has taken a devastating human toll. Although the outbreak originated in rural Guinea, it has hit hardest in Liberia and Sierra Leone, in part because it has reached urban areas in these two countries, a factor that distinguishes this outbreak from previous episodes elsewhere. As of October 3, 2014, there had been 3,431 recorded deaths out of 7,470 probable, suspected, or confirmed cases of Ebola. This report informs the response to the epidemic by presenting best-effort estimates of its macroeconomic and fiscal effects. Any such exercise is necessarily highly imprecise due to limited data and many uncertain factors, but it is still necessary in order to plan the economic assistance that must accompany the immediate humanitarian response. The goal is to help affected countries to recover and return to the robust economic growth they had experienced until the onset of this crisis. This document presents the World Bank's preliminary estimates of the economic impact of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa for 2014 (short term impact) and 2015 (medium term impact). Section 2 presents a single set of 2014 estimates for Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea, based on available data on current economic activity as well as assumptions about the short-term impact. It also presents current data on the limited current impacts on other countries in the region. Section 3 presents estimates for the impact by the end of 2015 for Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone, as well as estimates for West Africa as a whole. Because the epidemic and the behavioral responses to it have more time to diverge over the course of 2015, Section 3 presents two scenarios for 2015, which vary in the optimism of their assumptions regarding the epidemic and the success of donor and government policy and efforts to control it. The take-away messages from this analysis are a low Ebola scenario that corresponds to rapid containment within the three most severely affected countries, and a high Ebola scenario corresponds to slower containment in the three countries, with some broader regional contagion. A swift policy reaction by the international community is crucial. With potential the economic costs of the Ebola epidemic being so high, very substantial containment and mitigation expenditures would be cost-effective, if they successfully avert the worst epidemiological outcomes. To mitigate the medium term economic impact of the outbreak, current efforts by many partners to strengthen the health systems and fill the fiscal gaps in the core three countries are key priorities. Finally, this report does not take into account the longer term impacts generated by mortality, failure to treat other health conditions due to aversion behavior and lack of supply capacity, school closings and dropouts, and other shocks to livelihoods. It is truly focused on the short and medium-term inputs, over the next 18 months.Publication Update on the Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic on Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea(Washington, DC, 2014-12-02)The Ebola epidemic continues to cripple the economies of Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. The crisis is resulting in flat or negative income growth and creating large fiscal needs in all three countries, as they work to eradicate the virus. This update presents the World Bank s most recent analysis of the economic effects of the Ebola epidemic on the three countries. All three had been growing rapidly in recent years, and into the first half of 2014. But GDP growth estimates for 2014 have been revised sharply downward since pre-crisis estimates. Projected 2014 growth in Liberia is now 2.2 percent (versus 5.9 percent before the crisis and 2.5 percent in October). Projected 2014 growth in Sierra Leone is now 4.0 percent (versus 11.3 percent before the crisis and 8.0 percent in October). Projected 2014 growth in Guinea is now 0.5 percent (versus 4.5 percent before the crisis and 2.4 percent in October). The World Bank s October report on the economic impact of Ebola (report no. 91219 released at the 2014 Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank) found that if the epidemic continues in the three worst-affected countries and spreads to neighboring countries, the two-year regional financial impact could range from a "low Ebola" estimate of $3.8 billion to a "high Ebola" estimate of $32.6 billion. These scale estimates of potential impact remain valid: the epidemic is not yet under control. Containment, combined with a full-fledged financial recovery effort to restart business activity and bring back investors, are now both therefore urgently needed for the region to improve on the downbeat forecasts in this update.Publication Update on the Economic Impact of the 2014-2015 Ebola Epidemic on Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-04-15)A year after the onset of Ebola, the estimated GDP losses for the three countries through 2015 total US$2.2 billion (US$240 million for Liberia, US$535 million for Guinea and US$1.4 billion for Sierra Leone). This is the result of the severe impact of the epidemic which has been exacerbated by the large decline in the world price of iron ore and severe corporate governance issues in mining in Sierra Leone. Important differences among the three countries are emerging. Liberia is gradually returning to normalcy, Guineas economy is stagnating, and Sierra Leone is suffering a severe recession. This update presents the World Banks most recent analysis of the economic and fiscal effects of the Ebola epidemic on the three countries. In relation to our January 2015 report it contains: 1) an updated status for the economies of Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone; and 2) a brief description of these countries Economic Recovery Plans with indicative estimates of their potential impact on growth. As of April 2015, the Ebola epidemic has been largely contained but the negative effects on the economies of Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone loom large amidst continued uncertainty about the timing of complete eradication. The crisis continues to adversely affect these economies, so pace of recovery in these countries will depend heavily on adequate financing and effective implementation of the recovery plans. Ultimately, Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone will need the strong support from the development community over the next years to both make up for the losses incurred during the Ebola crisis and make these economies less vulnerable for the future.Publication People, Pathogens, and Our Planet : Volume One - Towards a One Health Approach for Controlling Zoonotic Diseases(World Bank, 2010-01-01)Whether living in urban or rural environments, humans tend to perceive the world around them as being shaped by culture and industry more than by natural history. Humans, however, are part of a biological continuum that covers all living species. Charles Darwin's 200th birthday in 2009 could serve to remind us of this. All animals, including humans but also plants, fungi, and bacteria, share the same basic biochemical principles of metabolism, reproduction, and development. Most pathogens can infect more than one host species, including humans. In 1964, veterinary epidemiologist Calvin Schwabe coined the term "one medicine" to capture the interrelatedness between animal and human health, and the medical realities of preventing and controlling zoonotic diseases or "zoonoses" -diseases that are communicable between animals and humans. One medicine signaled the recognition of the risks that zoonotic diseases pose to people, their food supplies, and their economies. Given the interrelatedness of human, animal, and ecosystem health, the rationale for some form of coordinated policy and action among agencies responsible for public health, medical science, and veterinary services is quite intuitive. Later, the term "one health" came into use, and later still, the broader concept of "one world one health," which is today used to represent the inextricable links among human and animal health and the health of the ecosystems they inhabit.Publication The Effectiveness of Policies to Control a Human Influenza Pandemic : A Literature Review(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-02)The studies reviewed in this paper indicate that with adequate preparedness planning and execution it is possible to contain pandemic influenza outbreaks where they occur, for viral strains of moderate infectiousness. For viral strains of higher infectiousness, containment may be difficult, but it may be possible to mitigate the effects of the spread of pandemic influenza within a country and/or internationally with a combination of policies suited to the origins and nature of the initial outbreak. These results indicate the likelihood of containment success in 'frontline risk' countries, given specific resource availability and level of infectiousness; as well as mitigation success in 'secondary' risk countries, given the assumption of inevitable international transmission through air travel networks. However, from the analysis of the modeling results on interventions in the U.S. and U.K. after a global pandemic starts, there is a basis for arguing that the emphasis in the secondary risk countries could shift from mitigation towards containment. This follows since a mitigation-focused strategy in such developed countries presupposes that initial outbreak containment in these countries will necessarily fail. This is paradoxical if containment success at similar infectiousness of the virus is likely in developing countries with lower public health resources, based on results using similar modeling methodologies. Such a shift in emphasis could have major implications for global risk management for diseases of international concern such as pandemic influenza or a SARS-like disease.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Media and Messages for Nutrition and Health(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has experienced rapid and significant economic growth over the past decade. However, poor nutritional outcomes remain a concern. Rates of childhood undernutrition are particularly high in remote, rural, and upland areas. Media have the potential to play an important role in shaping health and nutrition–related behaviors and practices as well as in promoting sociocultural and economic development that might contribute to improved nutritional outcomes. This report presents the results of a media audit (MA) that was conducted to inform the development and production of mass media advocacy and communication strategies and materials with a focus on maternal and child health and nutrition that would reach the most people from the poorest communities in northern Lao PDR. Making more people aware of useful information, essential services and products and influencing them to use these effectively is the ultimate goal of mass media campaigns, and the MA measures the potential effectiveness of media efforts to reach this goal. The effectiveness of communication channels to deliver health and nutrition messages to target beneficiaries to ensure maximum reach and uptake can be viewed in terms of preferences, satisfaction, and trust. Overall, the four most accessed media channels for receiving information among communities in the study areas were village announcements, mobile phones, television, and out-of-home (OOH) media. Of the accessed media channels, the top three most preferred channels were village announcements (40 percent), television (26 percent), and mobile phones (19 percent). In terms of trust, village announcements were the most trusted source of information (64 percent), followed by mobile phones (14 percent) and television (11 percent). Hence of all the media channels, village announcements are the most preferred, have the most satisfied users, and are the most trusted source of information in study communities from four provinces in Lao PDR with some of the highest burden of childhood undernutrition.Publication Economic Recovery(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-06)World Bank Group President David Malpass spoke about the world facing major challenges, including COVID, climate change, rising poverty and inequality and growing fragility and violence in many countries. He highlighted vaccines, working closely with Gavi, WHO, and UNICEF, the World Bank has conducted over one hundred capacity assessments, many even more before vaccines were available. The World Bank Group worked to achieve a debt service suspension initiative and increased transparency in debt contracts at developing countries. The World Bank Group is finalizing a new climate change action plan, which includes a big step up in financing, building on their record climate financing over the past two years. He noted big challenges to bring all together to achieve GRID: green, resilient, and inclusive development. Janet Yellen, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, mentioned focusing on vulnerable people during the pandemic. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, focused on giving everyone a fair shot during a sustainable recovery. All three commented on the importance of tackling climate change.Publication Remarks at the United Nations Biodiversity Conference(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-12)World Bank Group President David Malpass discussed biodiversity and climate change being closely interlinked, with terrestrial and marine ecosystems serving as critically important carbon sinks. At the same time climate change acts as a direct driver of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss. The World Bank has financed biodiversity conservation around the world, including over 116 million hectares of Marine and Coastal Protected Areas, 10 million hectares of Terrestrial Protected Areas, and over 300 protected habitats, biological buffer zones and reserves. The COVID pandemic, biodiversity loss, climate change are all reminders of how connected we are. The recovery from this pandemic is an opportunity to put in place more effective policies, institutions, and resources to address biodiversity loss.Publication South Asia Development Update, April 2024: Jobs for Resilience(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-02)South Asia is expected to continue to be the fastest-growing emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) region over the next two years. This is largely thanks to robust growth in India, but growth is also expected to pick up in most other South Asian economies. However, growth in the near-term is more reliant on the public sector than elsewhere, whereas private investment, in particular, continues to be weak. Efforts to rein in elevated debt, borrowing costs, and fiscal deficits may eventually weigh on growth and limit governments' ability to respond to increasingly frequent climate shocks. Yet, the provision of public goods is among the most effective strategies for climate adaptation. This is especially the case for households and farms, which tend to rely on shifting their efforts to non-agricultural jobs. These strategies are less effective forms of climate adaptation, in part because opportunities to move out of agriculture are limited by the region’s below-average employment ratios in the non-agricultural sector and for women. Because employment growth is falling short of working-age population growth, the region fails to fully capitalize on its demographic dividend. Vibrant, competitive firms are key to unlocking the demographic dividend, robust private investment, and workers’ ability to move out of agriculture. A range of policies could spur firm growth, including improved business climates and institutions, the removal of financial sector restrictions, and greater openness to trade and capital flows.Publication The Journey Ahead(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31)The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.