Publication:
From Technological Catch-up to Innovation : The Future of China’s GDP Growth

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (1.51 MB)
1,418 downloads
English Text (228.23 KB)
861 downloads
Date
2012-01-02
ISSN
Published
2012-01-02
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This report stats that income gaps among countries are largely explained by differences in productivity. By raising the capital/labor ratio and rapidly assimilating technologies across a wide range of activities, China has increased factor productivity manifold since 1980 and joined the ranks of middle income countries. With the launch of the 12th FYP, China has set its sights on becoming a high income country by 2030 through a strategy combining high levels of investment with rapid advances in technology comparable to that of Japan from the 1960s through the 1970s, and Korea s from the 1980s through the end of the century. The report concludes that the best bet is an innovation system anchored to and drawing its energy from a competitive national economy. Technological progress and the flourishing of innovation in China will be the function of a competitive, globally networked ecosystem constructed in two stages during 2011- 2030. Government technology cum competition policies will provide impetus in the first stage, but success will hinge on the quality of the workforce, the initiative and policies of firms, the emergence of supporting services.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Yusuf, Shahid. 2012. From Technological Catch-up to Innovation : The Future of China’s GDP Growth. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/12781 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Growing Industrial Clusters in Asia : Serendipity and Science
    (Washington, DC : World Bank, 2008) Yamashita, Shoichi; Yusuf, Shahid; Nabeshima, Kaoru
    Can clusters be made to order? By Shahid Yusuf. Lessons from the development of silicon valley and its entrepreneurial support network for Japan by Martin Kenney. The emergence of Hsinchu science park as an IT cluster by Tain-Jy Chen. Coping with globalization of production networks and digital convergence: the challenge of ICT cluster development in Singapore by Poh-Kam Wong. Bangalore cluster: evolution, growth, and challenges by Rakesh Basant. ICT clusters and industrial restructuring in the Republic of Korea: the case of Seoul by Sam Ock Park. Constructing jurisdictional advantage in a mature economy: the case of Kitakyushu, Japan by Maryann P. Feldman. Kitakyushu: desperately seeking clusters by Kaoru Nabeshima and Shoichi Yamashita.
  • Publication
    Leveraging High Technology to Drive Innovation and Competitiveness and Build the Sri Lankan Knowledge Economy
    (World Bank, 2009-06-01) World Bank
    This study was done at an opportune time in Sri Lanka's history: with end of the war there is hope for the country's peace, prosperity, and growth. To encourage economic growth, this study examines how high technology can drive competitiveness in key export-oriented industries and help build a strong Sri Lankan knowledge economy. The study examines global experience from economies around the world, but particularly several in Southeast Asia, to provide guidance on the role of national governments in enabling the development of a high-tech export sector and the application of high technologies in domestic production. More specifically, it reviews public policies, strategies, and investments in comparable countries that have been successful in promoting the absorption and use of high technologies for competitiveness, and applies lessons to Sri Lanka.
  • Publication
    New Industries from New Places : The Emergence of the Software and Hardware Industries in China and India
    (Washington, DC: World Bank and Stanford University Press, 2009) Nollen, Stanley; Gregory, Neil; Tenev, Stoyan
    China and India have grown rapidly in importance in the global economy over the past two decades the same period in which hardware and software have become important tradable products in the global economy. China has reached global scale in the hardware industry but not in software; India has achieved the reverse. These recent developments offer new insights into the ways in which new industries can take root and flourish within the broader context of developing economies. This progress has attracted widespread comment, most of it anecdotal or based on partial explanations of industrial growth. This study seeks to provide a fuller explanation based on an empirical analysis of the macro and micro underpinnings of these contrasting growth stories. In doing so, the study sheds a broader light on the economic development paths that China and India have taken since 1990, and also on the process by which developing economies can enter and succeed in new markets.
  • Publication
    Japan, Moving Toward a More Advanced Knowledge Economy : Volume 1. Assessment and Lessons
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2006) Shibata, Tsutomu
    These two volumes analyze Japan from the Knowledge Economy perspective, covering a wide range of sector issues in development including the macro economic framework, education and skills training, the national innovation system, science and technology, information and communication technology, and infrastructure. While Volume 1 explores the four pillars of the "Knowledge for Development" framework, the second volume presents up-to-date case studies of outstanding Japanese private companies that each characterize different aspects of the Knowledge Economy.
  • Publication
    Unleashing India's Innovation : Toward Sustainable and Inclusive Growth
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2007) Dutz, Mark A.
    India's recent growth has been impressive, with real GDP rising by over eight percent a year since 2004 -- accompanied by a jump in innovative activities. Growth has been driven by rapid expansion in export-oriented, skill-intensive manufacturing and, especially, skill-intensive services. The book is structured as follows: Chapter 1 reviews the Indian context and enabling environment. Chapter 2 analyzes knowledge creation and commercialization. Chapter 3 discusses knowledge diffusion and absorption. Chapter 4 encourages inclusive, pro-poor innovation. Chapter 5 addresses the need for stronger skills and education for innovation. Chapter 6 examines ways of improving information infrastructure. Chapter 7 suggests approaches to enhance innovation finance.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Transforming the Urban Space through Transit-Oriented Development
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017) Salat, Serge; Ollivier, Gerald
    Imagine a city that is more competitive, with higher-quality neighborhoods, lower infrastructure costs, and lower C02 emissions per unit of activity. This city has lower combined transportation and housing costs for its residents than other cities at similar levels of economic activity. Its residents can access most jobs and services easily through a combination of low-cost public transport, walking and cycling. Its core economic and population centers are resilient to natural hazards. It is able to finance improvements to public space, connectivity, and social housing by capturing value created through integrated land use and transport planning. Such a vision has never been more relevant for rapidly growing cities than it is today. Transit-oriented development (TOD) can play a major role in achieving such a vision. Based on an observation of methodologies applied in different countries, the World Bank's Community of Practice on Transit Oriented Development has developed a methodology called the 3 Value (3V) Framework, which outlines a typology to facilitate TOD implementation at the metropolitan and urban scale in various contexts. The 3V Framework equips policy and decision makers with quantified indicators to better understand the interplay between the economic vision for the city, its land use and mass transit network, and urban qualities and market vibrancy around its mass transit stations. This book provides examples of approaches taken by cities like London and New York to align their economic, land use, and transport planning to generate jobs and high value. We hope this book will help readers develop a coherent vision, policies, and strategy to leverage the value created through enhanced connectivity and accessibility and make cities even more appealing places to live, work, play and do business.
  • Publication
    Growth through Innovation : An Industrial Strategy for Shanghai
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-04-22) Yusuf, Shahid; Nabeshima, Kaoru
    In broad terms, the sources of economic growth are well understood but relatively few countries have succeeded in effectively harnessing this knowledge for policy purposes so as to sustain high rates of growth over an extended period of time (commission on growth and development 2008; Yusuf 2009a). This study argues, however, that a high growth strategy which puts technology upgrading and innovation at the center might warrant a different approach from the one currently favored. It derives from the experience of global cities such as New York and London and the empirical research on industrial performance and on innovation. This has yielded four significant findings: first, monosectoral services based economies grow slowly because they benefit less from increases in productivity and from innovation. Second, manufacturing industries producing complex capital goods, electronic equipment, and sophisticated components are more Research and Development (R&D) intensive, generate many more innovations, are more export oriented, have a solid track record of rising productivity, and having achieved competitiveness, are in a better position to sustain it because the entry barriers to these industries tend to be higher. By giving rise to dense backward and forward linkages these industries can serve as the nuclei of urban clusters and maximize employment generation. Third, industrial cities create many more jobs for a middle class and tend to have a more equal distribution of income than cities which are dominated by services. Fourth, and finally, cities with a world class tertiary education and research infrastructure linked to industry, are more resilient in the face of shocks, more innovative, and better able to reinvent themselves.
  • Publication
    China 2030 : Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative High-Income Society [pre-publication version]
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012-02-27) World Bank; Development Research Center of the State Council, P.R.C.
    China should complete its transition to a market economy--through enterprise, land, labor, and financial sector reforms--strengthen its private sector, open its markets to greater competition and innovation, and ensure equality of opportunity to help achieve its goal of a new structure for economic growth. These are some of the key findings of a joint research report by a team from the World Bank and the Development Research Center of China’s State Council, which lays out the case for a new development strategy for China to rebalance the role of government and market, private sector and society, to reach the goal of a high income country by 2030.   This report recommends steps to deal with the  risks facing China over the next 20 years, including the risk of a hard landing in the short term, as well as challenges posed by an ageing and shrinking workforce, rising inequality, environmental stresses, and external imbalances. The report lays out six strategic directions for China’s future: * Completing the transition to a market economy; * Accelerating the pace of open innovation; * Going “green” to transform environmental stresses into green growth as a driver for development; * Expanding opportunities and services such as health, education and access to jobs for all people; * Modernizing and strengthening its domestic fiscal system; * Seeking mutually beneficial relations with the world by connecting China’s structural reforms to the changing international economy.
  • Publication
    Developing China’s Ports
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-05-17) Chiu, Hei; Aritua, Bernard; Cheng, Lu; Farrell, Sheila; de Langen, Peter
    Many countries in Africa and Asia have coastlines that present opportunities for them to become gateways for trade between the hinterlands and global trading routes. However, policy makers struggle to translate this potential into engines of economic development and social transformation. In the past 40 years, China has taken advantage of its strategic geographical location and its status as one of the world’s top manufacturing regions. From a very low position on almost all metrics, today China has become home to more than half of the world’s top 50 ports. The rapid development of China’s ports was critical for the country’s remarkable economic growth. What China achieved can be informative; how and why China revived and modernized its port sector is especially relevant and provides valuable lessons for other countries. This book explores the transformation of China’s port sector through four topics and four periods, beginning with China’s major economic reforms that started in 1978. The first topic addresses the links between China’s macroeconomic and regional development strategies and development of the port sector. During this period—through about 1991—China began decentralizing port management to facilitate development of special economic zones. The second topic—during the period 1992 through about 2001—is more specific about the ports and analyzes changes in port governance, including the way in which essential investments were determined and financed. The third topic examines the relationship of ports to the cities where they are located and to the hinterlands on which they depend—coinciding with the period 2002–11. Domestic and international investment resulted in many new export-oriented processing factories during this period. The accompanying boost in trade required further expansion of port capacity. The fourth topic addresses how—from 2011 onward—human resource and innovation policies in the port sector have responded to changing demands as the country looks to become a less resource-dependent and more regionally balanced economy.
  • Publication
    Two Dragon Heads : Contrasting Development Paths for Beijing and Shanghai
    (World Bank, 2010) Yusuf, Shahid; Nabeshima, Kaoru
    In broad terms, the sources of economic growth are well understood, but relatively few countries have succeeded in effectively harnessing this knowledge for policy purposes so as to sustain high rates of growth over an extended period of time. Among the ones that have done so, China stands out. Its gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, which averaged almost 10 percent between 1978 and 2008, is unmatched. Even more remarkable is the performance of China's three leading industrial regions: the Bohai region, the Pearl River Delta, and the Yangtze River (Changjiang) delta area. These regions have averaged growth rates well above 11 percent since 1985. Shanghai is the urban axis of the Yangtze River Delta's thriving economy; Beijing is the hinge of the Bohai region. Their performance and that of a handful of other urban regions will determine China's economic fortunes and innovativeness in the coming decades. The balance of this volume is divided into five chapters. Chapter two encapsulates the sources of China's growth and the current and future role of urban regions in China. The case for the continuing substantial presence of manufacturing industry for growth and innovation in the two urban centers is made in chapter three. Chapter four briefly examines the economic transformation of four global cities and distills stylized trends that can inform future development in Beijing and Shanghai. Chapter five describes the industrial structure of the two cities, identifies promising industrial areas, and analyzes the resource base that would underpin growth fueled by innovation. Finally, chapter six suggests how strategy could be reoriented on the basis of the lessons delineated in chapter four and the economic capabilities presented in chapter five.