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Have Robots Grounded the Flying Geese? Evidence from Greenfield FDI in Manufacturing

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dc.contributor.authorHallward-Driemeier, Mary
dc.contributor.authorNayyar, Gaurav
dc.date.accessioned2019-12-27T16:42:10Z
dc.date.available2019-12-27T16:42:10Z
dc.date.issued2019-12
dc.description.abstractFor decades, manufacturers around the world have outsourced production to countries with lower labor costs. However, there is a concern that robotization in high-income countries will challenge this shifting international division of labor known as the "flying geese" paradigm. Greenfield foreign direct investment decisions constitute a forward-looking indicator of where production is expected, rather than trade flows that reflect past investment decisions. Exploiting differences across countries and industries, the intensity of robot use in high-income countries has a positive impact on foreign direct investment growth from high-income countries to low- and middle-income countries over 2004-15. Past a threshold, however, increased robotization in high-income countries has a negative impact on foreign direct investment growth. Only 3 percent of the sample exceeds the threshold level beyond which further automation results in negative foreign direct investment growth and is consistent with re-shoring. For another 25 percent of the sample, the impact of robotization on the growth of foreign direct investment is positive, but at a rate that is declining. So, although these are early warning signs, automation in high-income countries has resulted in growing foreign direct investment for more than two-thirds of the sample under consideration. Some geese may be slowing, but for now, most continue to fly.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/945231577418925587/Have-Robots-Grounded-the-Flying-Geese-Evidence-from-Greenfield-FDI-in-Manufacturing
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9097
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/33105
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 9097
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectAUTOMATION
dc.subjectROBOTS
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectGLOBAL VALUE CHAIN
dc.subjectFLYING GEESE PARADIGM
dc.titleHave Robots Grounded the Flying Geese? Evidence from Greenfield FDI in Manufacturingen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleHave Robots Grounded The Flying Geese? : Evidence From Greenfield FDI In Manufacturing
okr.date.disclosure2019-12-26
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/945231577418925587/Have-Robots-Grounded-the-Flying-Geese-Evidence-from-Greenfield-FDI-in-Manufacturing
okr.guid945231577418925587
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9097
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b087472f94_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum31670492
okr.identifier.reportWPS9097
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/945231577418925587/pdf/Have-Robots-Grounded-the-Flying-Geese-Evidence-from-Greenfield-FDI-in-Manufacturing.pdfen
okr.statistics.combined2510
okr.statistics.dr945231577418925587
okr.statistics.drstats1706
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Foreign Direct Investment
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade Finance and Investment
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade Technology and Productivity
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development::Global Value Chains and Business Clustering
okr.topicScience and Technology Development::Technology Innovation
okr.unitFinance, Competitiveness and Innovation Global Practice
relation.isAuthorOfPublication67f85769-f3f3-56bb-8609-d63125a35e32
relation.isAuthorOfPublication315dd6da-66d5-50cb-8bf2-7f07533caf21
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery67f85769-f3f3-56bb-8609-d63125a35e32
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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