Publication: The Union of Comoros Country Economic Memorandum: Boosting Growth for Greater Opportunities
Loading...
Files in English
279 downloads
Published
2023-09-14
ISSN
Date
2023-09-14
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Comoros is at the crossroads to redefine its future and become an upper-middle income country by 2050, but this would require implementing an ambitious reform agenda that focuses on increasing productivity and private investment. The current business-as-usual policy framework has delivered low private investment and human capital, sectoral growth below potential, and no poverty eradication. Pursuing this policy framework, which would not allow Comoros to reach the GDP growth target of 7.5 percent by 2030 laid out in the national development plan, could result in GDP per capita of US$1,890 and a poverty rate of 22.9 percent by 2050. By contrast, under a policy framework of ambitious reforms that include measures to increase inclusiveness, Comoros could reach a GDP per capita of US$3,934 and reduce the poverty rate to below 5 percent by 2050. Supported by the continuous implementation of ambitious reforms, such a level of GDP per capita could have Comoros reach upper-middle-income status by 2050. Under this ambitious reform agenda, private investment would average 11.9 percent of GDP in 2023–2050, and total factor productivity growth would average 1.45 percentage points per year during the same period.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2023. The Union of Comoros Country Economic Memorandum: Boosting Growth for Greater Opportunities. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/40354 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Comoros Economic Update, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-21)Comoros has a rare opportunity to break from its historical cycle of low growth by leveraging recent stability to implement transformative policies that promote inclusive development and resilience. Despite achieving greater stability since reunification, the economy has not broken from its historical pattern of stagnation. Growth has remained persistently weak, keeping per capita income virtually unchanged over time. This prolonged underperformance has left poverty levels stubbornly high, with minimal improvement compared to peer nations. The country’s limited progress has been further exposed by recent global shocks, underscoring the urgent need for transformative policies to spur inclusive growth and build resilience. However, the enhanced stability that the country has recently achieved, coupled with the opportunity to host the 2027 Indian Ocean Island Games, represents a pivotal turning point for driving reform momentum.Publication Cambodia - Sustaining Rapid Growth in a Challenging Environment : Country Economic Memorandum(World Bank, 2009-01-01)Many countries succeed in generating high economic growth at some point in their history. But only a very few manage to sustain rapid growth for an extended period. Only such a prolonged period of rapid growth can have a significant impact on income per capita, and such an impact often brings with it many other important changes to people's lives. Cambodia has more than doubled its income per capita over the past decade, from US$285 in 1997 to US$593 in 2007. This doubling has been accompanied by the trappings of a profound structural transformation: integration into the global economy; a shift of jobs from agriculture to manufacturing; a demographic transition; and migration from rural to urban areas. Translating into jobs and better services, these outcomes have led to a significant reduction in poverty, as well as improvements in health and education. This report aims to contribute to policymakers' and citizens' thinking about growth in Cambodia in three ways: (i) it reviews the experience of the past decade and draws the Cambodia-specific lessons of this period; (ii) it sketches the major potential sources of growth with the aim of assessing the barriers to growth; and (iii) it outlines policy options for addressing these barriers.Publication Mauritania - Policy Options to Enhance Private Sector Development : Country Economic Memorandum(World Bank, 2010-04-01)Mauritania has undergone massive economic and political changes. Mauritania is a West African country located on the western edge of the Sahara desert, with a population of approximately 3 million people that is mostly concentrated in the urban areas. Since independence in the 1960s, Mauritania's economy has been dependent on natural resources, iron ore first then combined with fisheries, and presently oil and other minerals. Natural resources exploitation and more recently oil discovery boosted Mauritania's rate of economic growth, but key challenges remain, in particular the promotion of productive value-adding activities and the creation of a strong, formal class of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The Government of Mauritania recognizes the strategic role of the private sector and the urgency of supporting SME development as a catalyst for long-term growth. In the Second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (GPRSP-II), the Mauritanian authorities indicated that accelerating economic growth will be based on: (i) optimizing spinoff effects from developing the oil business and implementing more effective policies for harnessing the growth potential of other promising sectors; (ii) a thorough reform of the financial system; (iii) significant improvement in the business climate and the development of SMEs; and (iv) giving a greater economic and land-use planning dimension to the infrastructure that supports growth (World Bank, 2006). Furthermore, the authorities identified several priorities to improve the business climate and promotion of SMEs, as follows: (i) improving the legal environment for businesses; (ii) fighting anti-competitive practices; (iii) making tax and customs policies more favorable to business; and (iv) institutional support for the development of trade and commerce. This country economic memorandum (CEM) examines the four most constraining factors to private sector development and proposes the formulation of practical solutions to enable the emergence of a strong class of formal private firms. Specifically, to accelerate growth and to attain the four strategic GPRSP II objectives - (i) optimize spinoff effects; (ii) reform financial system; (iii) improve the business climate and the development of SMEs; and (iv) improve business enabling infrastructure), the CEM analyses the role of taxation to promote firm formalization; skills development to enhance labor productivity; competition policy as a way to address anticompetitive market conduct; and the options for establishing special economic zones as instruments to close infrastructure gaps and promote investment climate reforms.Publication Union of the Comoros : Debt Management Performance Assessment(Washington, Dc, 2011-06)This study shows that performance in terms of debt management has been weakened by recurrent political and institutional crises experienced by the country in recent years and has had a negative impact on the State's ability to both mobilize external financing and to honor its financial commitments. The accumulation of external arrears has increased by extension of the depletion sources of funding. However, the government recently initiated numerous actions contributing to a more serene climate at home with the establishment of democratic governance, developing a program of poverty reduction and regularization of arrears. This more favorable environment will soon pave the way for more substantial outside funding, especially following the accession of the Comoros to the enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC), and therefore requires the full attention of the authorities to implement better management of public debt. This evaluation is part of this perspective. Overall, performance in terms of debt management in the Comoros is satisfactory in all three of the following areas: (i) coordination with fiscal policy, including the integration of forecasts and actual payment of debt service in the preparation and monitoring of budget, (ii) coordination with monetary policy focused on the management of statutory advances granted by the Central Bank of Comoros (BCC), and (iii) procedures for payment of service external debt.Publication Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum : Terra Ranca! A Fresh Start(Washington, DC, 2015-01-12)After decades of turmoil and instability, a period of calm and progress evolved in Guinea-Bissau in 2009. A military coup in April 2012 interrupted it. A fresh start is needed to alter the dynamics that kept Guinea-Bissau poor. In 2013, Gross National Income per capita was US$590. Average economic growth barely kept pace with population growth. In 2010, poverty at the national poverty line of US$2 a day was 70 percent; extreme poverty at US$1 a day was 33 percent. These numbers have increased from their 2002 levels and they are estimated to have increased further since 2010. It is time to make a fresh start and turn the page on anemic growth and poverty. Guinea-Bissau s elections of May and June 2014 are described by many observers as the freest and fairest in the country s history. Voter registration and turnout were at record-levels. The conditions for progress and stability are favorable. Guinea-Bissau is a rural economy, almost entirely dependent on a single cash crop: cashew. It is the main source of income for most of the country s poor. Cashew nuts are Guinea-Bissau s main export, accounting for 85 to 90 percent of the country s total exports. The balance of payments is dominated by cashew, on the export side, and food and fuel, among imports. The economy is open, with exports and imports by land and sea amounting to more than 70 percent of GDP. Shocks to cashew, rice and oil prices have a considerable effect on the current account balance. Official Development Assistance (ODA) makes a critical contribution to supporting the state budget. In 2011, Guinea-Bissau ranked 20th among the world s most aid dependent countries. Recently, policy mistakes aggravated an already dire situation. However, the 2014 cashew campaign was been better than the 2013 campaign, and the prospects for a pick-up in growth have improved.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Entrepreneurship Education and Training Programs around the World : Dimensions for Success(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014-04-23)Entrepreneurship has attracted global interest for its potential to catalyze economic and social development. Research suggesting that certain entrepreneurial mindsets and skills can be learned has given rise to the field of entrepreneurship education and training (EET). Despite the growth of EET, global knowledge about these programs and their impact remains thin. In response, this study surveys the available literature and program evaluations to propose a Conceptual Framework for understanding the EET program landscape. The study finds that EET today consists of a heterogeneous mix of programs that can be broken into two groups: entrepreneurship education and entrepreneurship training. These programs target a range of participants: secondary and post-secondary education students, as well as potential and practicing entrepreneurs. The outcomes measured by program evaluations are equally diverse but generally fall under the domains of entrepreneurial mindsets and capabilities, entrepreneurial status, and entrepreneurial performance. The dimensions of EET programs vary according the particular target group. Programs targeting secondary education students focus on the development of foundational skills linked to entrepreneurship, while post-secondary education programs emphasize skills related to strategic business planning. Programs targeting potential entrepreneurs generally are embedded within broader support programs and tend to target vulnerable populations for whom employment alternatives may be limited. While programs serving practicing entrepreneurs focus on strengthening entrepreneurs’ knowledge, skills and business practices, which while unlikely to transform an enterprise in the near term, may accrue benefits to entrepreneurs over time. The study also offers implications for policy and program implementation, emphasizing the importance of clarity about target groups and desired outcomes when making program choices, and sound understanding of extent to which publicly-supported programs offer a broader public good, and compare favorably to policy alternatives for supporting the targeted individuals as well as the overall economic and social objectives.Publication Zambia Economic Brief, June 2015, Issue 5(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-06-01)After several years of strong economic performance, Zambia now confronts several important challenges that must be managed carefully to ensure sustained and inclusive growth in the future. On the one hand, the economy grew by an estimated 5.5–6.0 percent in 2014, somewhat above the average for African economies. Monthly copper production increased by an average of 8 percent during the second half of 2014, reversing the sharp slide in early 2014. Inflation fell to 7.2 percent in March and April, helped both by falling world oil prices and by the Bank of Zambia’s monetary tightening. In the first half of 2015, the authorities adjusted several key economic policies to respond to serious problems: revising rules on VAT refunds in February, announcing a new mining fiscal regime in April, and raising fuel prices in May so that the government could recover import costs. On the other hand, the kwacha has come under renewed pressure. It lost 17 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar from December 2014 through the end of March 2015. Since then it has recovered somewhat, but foreign exchange markets remain volatile. Interest rates have been rising since September 2014, due in part to increased government borrowing and in part to steps taken by the Bank of Zambia to tighten credit. Over the medium term, growth should hold steady in 2015 and then accelerate to around 6–7 percent per year in 2016–2018. Although inflation is expected to rise towards the end of 2015, it should resume falling in 2016. Low commodity prices, a more stable exchange rate, and adequate local harvests would help contain inflationary pressures and boost real disposable incomes. The resulting pick-up in private consumption, coupled with increasing copper exports, should help strengthen growth prospects.Publication Increasing Women’s Representation in Business Leadership(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-06-09)Better gender balance in business leadership is inextricably linked with achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). By definition, attainment of SDG 5, gender equality, is impossible without women’s equal representation at the top. Women leaders are levers of change for all SDGs, as they prioritize social protections, health, education, climate, and inclusivity. Having more women in leadership is positively correlated with higher environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards, leading to improved business performance and inclusive economic growth. Yet, enormous gender gaps in corporate leadership persist. Globally, women hold only 19.7 percent of board seats, and 6.7 percent of board chair, 5 percent of CEO, and 15.7 percent of CFO positions. Unconscious and cultural biases, lack of opportunities, and other workforce barriers can limit women’s professional aspirations and narrow leadership paths. While direct cause-and-effect links cannot always be demonstrated, World Bank Group interventions that address the root causes of gender gaps in business leadership offer strong potential for progress. This note examines World Bank Group experience and provides several strategies that other programs can consider to accelerate the pace at which women ascend to senior leadership positions.Publication Vietnam(World Bank, Hanoi, 2020-05-01)Following from Vietnam’s ratification of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in late 2018 and its effectiveness from January 2019, and the European Parliament’s recent approval of the European Union-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and its subsequent planned ratification by the National Assembly in May 2020, Vietnam has further demonstrated its determination to be a modern, competitive, open economy. As the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) crisis has clearly shown, diversified markets and supply chains will be key in the future global context to managing the risk of disruptions in trade and in supply chains due to changing trade relationships, climate change, natural disasters, and disease outbreaks. In those regards, Vietnam is in a stronger position than most countries in the region. The benefits of globalization are increasingly being debated and questioned. However, in the case of Vietnam, the benefits have been clear in terms of high and consistent economic growth and a large reduction in poverty levels. As Vietnam moves to ratify and implement a new generation of free trade agreements (FTAs), such as the CPTPP and EVFTA, it is important to clearly demonstrate, in a transparent manner, the economic gains and distributional impacts (such as sectoral and poverty) from joining these FTAs. In the meantime, it is crucial to highlight the legal gaps that must be addressed to ensure that national laws and regulations are in compliance with Vietnam’s obligations under these FTAs. Readiness to implement this new generation of FTAs at both the national and subnational level is important to ensure that the country maximizes the full economic benefits in terms of trade and investment. This report explores the issues of globalization and the integration of Vietnam into the global economy, particularly through implementation of the EVFTA.Publication Democratic Republic of Congo Urbanization Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018)The Democratic Republic of Congo has the third largest urban population in sub-Saharan Africa (estimated at 43% in 2016) after South Africa and Nigeria. It is expected to grow at a rate of 4.1% per year, which corresponds to an additional 1 million residents moving to cities every year. If this trend continues, the urban population could double in just 15 years. Thus, with a population of 12 million and a growth rate of 5.1% per year, Kinshasa is poised to become the most populous city in Africa by 2030. Such strong urban growth comes with two main challenges – the need to make cities livable and inclusive by meeting the high demand for social services, infrastructure, education, health, and other basic services; and the need to make cities more productive by addressing the lack of concentrated economic activity. The Urbanization Review of the Democratic Republic of Congo argues that the country is urbanizing at different rates and identifies five regions (East, South, Central, West and Congo Basin) that present specific challenges and opportunities. The Urbanization Review proposes policy options based on three sets of instruments, known as the three 'I's – Institutions, Infrastructures and Interventions – to help each region respond to its specific needs while reaping the benefits of economic agglomeration The Democratic Republic of the Congo is at a crossroads. The recent decline in commodity prices could constitute an opportunity for the country to diversify its economy and invest in the manufacturing sector. Now is an opportune time for Congolese decision-makers to invest in cities that can lead the country's structural transformation and facilitate greater integration with African and global markets. Such action would position the country well on the path to emergence.