Publication:
A Triple Win: Fiscal and Welfare Benefits of Economic Participation by Syrian Refugees in Jordan

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files
Full Book (4.26 MB)
975 downloads
Overview (1.12 MB)
487 downloads
Published
2024-06-18
ISSN
Date
2024-05-21
Author(s)
Abstract
"A Triple Win: Fiscal and Welfare Benefits of Economic Participation by Syrian Refugees in Jordan" is the result of a joint effort by the World Bank and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to explore the welfare of Syrian refugees in Jordan and to review the aid that refugees receive and their participation in the economy. The analysis shows how deprivation among Syrian refugees is elevated, more so for refugees living in host communities. This presents a puzzle because most refugees opt to live outside of the camps, even though they have the option to stay in camps. Why do people voluntarily expose themselves to a higher risk of poverty? The volume finds an answer in the desire of refugees for freedom and autonomy. "A Triple Win" then turns to humanitarian aid that is found important for reducing refugee poverty, but insufficient as poverty levels remain high. After considering the scope for efficiency gains, the conclusion is that at current levels of aid it will not be possible to lift all Syrian refugees out of poverty unless another solution is found. Increasing the financial autonomy of refugees provides the needed solution. Syrian refugees already access Jordan’s labor market, but their access is constrained. Those who work tend to labor in less remunerative jobs, often in the informal sector. Despite this, the incomes earned by refugees exceed aid by a factor of two. The analysis goes on to show that refugee economic participation already reduces the need for aid by US$850 million per year. This reduction could increase if labor market restrictions were eased. The savings that would be generated could then be repurposed. This approach defines the triple win: refugees gain financial autonomy, humanitarian aid is reserved for those most in need, and Jordan receives additional resources to invest in its economic development.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Hoogeveen, Johannes; Obi, Chinedu, editors. 2024. A Triple Win: Fiscal and Welfare Benefits of Economic Participation by Syrian Refugees in Jordan. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/41574 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    The Economic Impacts of the Syrian Refugee Migration on Jordan
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-10) Segnana, Juan; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys; Robertson, Raymond; Roche Rodriguez, Jaime Alfonso
    The Syrian Civil War in 2011 led to a substantial influx of refugees into Jordan, with more than 660,000 Syrians arriving by 2015. More than half of these refugees were of working age. This study shows that Syrian refugees have less education than their Jordanian counterparts, and policies attempted to help them to assimilate into manufacturing. The study tests two hypotheses related to refugee assimilation. The first hypothesis examines the 2016 Jordan Compact with the European Union, which aimed to integrate Syrian refugees and improve Jordan’s export profile with simplified rules of origin for certain industries. If the Jordan Compact was effective, a relative increase in exports to the European Union, compared to other regions, would be expected. The second hypothesis suggests that the successful integration of Syrian workers into the manufacturing sector contributed to a boost in manufacturing exports to all destinations relative to other exports. The study conducts a gravity difference-in-differences analysis to evaluate these two hypotheses. The findings show little, if any, evidence supporting the first hypothesis but strong support for the second. These findings suggest that although the simplified rules of origin had limited impact on exports to the European Union, the Jordanian government effectively integrated Syrian workers into the manufacturing sector. Labor force surveys indicate that a skill mismatch impeded the integration of Syrian workers into the industries targeted by the Jordan Compact, but refugees were successfully assimilated into the manufacturing industry.
  • Publication
    The Great Migration : Urban Aspirations
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-05) Keith, Michael
    The great 21st-century migration into cities will present both a great challenge for humanity and a significant opportunity for global economic growth. This paper describes the diverse patterns that define this metropolitan migration. It then lays out a framework for understanding the costs and benefits of new arrivals through migration's externalities and the challenges and policy tradeoffs that confront city stakeholders. The paper concludes by suggesting ways municipalities, by optimizing flexibility, can make migration more productive and less destructive in shaping the 'good city' and the 'smart city.' There are few paths to global economic growth that do not run through cities, and even fewer that do not depend on growing the city in population size, scale, and economic exchange. Historically, cities have grown by concentrating the economic advantages of number and density, the social potential of innovation, and the cultural possibilities of newness. By bringing together the factors of production, land, labor, capital, and enterprise, in ever more recombinant forms, cities offer the possibility of securing new economic advantages and scaling them up.
  • Publication
    Towards a Palestinian State
    (Washington, DC, 2010-04-13) World Bank
    The thirteenth government of the Palestinian Authority (PA) presented in August 2009 a program entitled Palestine: ending the occupation, establishing the state (hereafter referred to as the program) that lays out the vision, foundational principles, and national goals for the future Palestinian state, as well as institution-building and sector priorities. This report will therefore begin by discussing recent trends in the economic restrictions imposed by the Government of Israel (GoI) on West Bank and Gaza (WB&G). The next section will focus on an analysis of economic and fiscal developments, highlighting the fact that WB&G experienced in 2009 a third consecutive year of economic growth and rising per capita GDP, driven by large inflows of external assistance and a relatively stable security situation. Despite the growth, however, the recurrent deficit rose from roughly US$1.3 billion in 2008 to US$1.6 billion on a commitment basis in 2009, mostly as a result of emergency spending in Gaza in the aftermath of Israel s military operation (operation cast lead, December 27, 2008, January 18, 2009) as well as arrears brought forward from 2008 and recognized as commitments in 2009. Given this finding, the discussion in remainder of the report is particularly relevant, focusing on the reform areas of fiscal strengthening and improved public financial management and the important role played by local governments in this regard.
  • Publication
    The Welfare and Productivity Effects of Transit Improvements in Amman
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-13) Kleineberg, Tatjana; Murray, Sally; Tang, Yulu; Kaw, Jon Kher
    This paper studies the long-run welfare and productivity effects of transit improvements in the Greater Amman Municipality. The paper builds a rich quantitative spatial model that includes many aspects of the economic geography of Amman. It studies the effects of new bus rapid transit lines that improve the connection of more peripheral areas to the city center, in two phases: phase 1 (approximately) connecting the north-eastern and north-western regions, and phase 2 adding the southern and south-westerns regions. It finds that the bus rapid transit increases output by 4.4 to 5 percent in phase 1 and 7.2 to 7.6 percent in phase 2. Workers in manufacturing benefit the most, and they also lived farthest from the city center before the bus rapid transit was established. Welfare in all neighborhoods increases, with the largest increases at the outer ends of the new bus rapid transit lines. Phase 1 generally promotes densification and welfare in already dense locations, while phase 2 encourages additional densification to the south. Our preliminary analysis of the interaction of zoning restrictions with the bus rapid transit suggests that legal zoning limits are binding in a few locations where excess demand for real estate after the expansion of bus rapid transit is expected to be large.
  • Publication
    What Did the Maoists Ever Do for Us? Education and Marriage of Women Exposed to Civil Conflict in Nepal
    (2011-07-01) Valente, Christine
    Between 1996 and 2006, Nepal experienced violent civil conflict as a consequence of a Maoist insurgency, which many argue also brought about an increase in female empowerment. This paper exploits within and between-district variation in the intensity of violence to estimate the impact of conflict intensity on two key areas of the life of women in Nepal, namely education and marriage. Overall conflict intensity had a small, positive effect on female educational attainment, whereas abductions by Maoists had the reverse effect. Male schooling was not significantly affected by either conflict measure. Conflict intensity and Maoist abductions during school age both increased the probability of early female marriage, but exposure to conflict during marriageable age does not appear to have affected women's long-term marriage probability.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10) World Bank
    The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.
  • Publication
    Greater Heights
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-12) Iacovone, Leonardo; Izvorski, Ivailo; Kostopoulos, Christos; Lokshin, Michael M.; Record, Richard; Torre, Iván; Doczi, Szilvia
    Twenty-seven countries have reached high-income status since 1990. Ten of these are in the Europe and Central Asia region and have joined the European Union. Another 20 in the region have become more prosperous since the 1990s. However, their transition to high-income status has been delayed. These middle-income countries have found that the prospects for growth to high-income status have become even more difficult since the 2007–09 global financial crisis. This reflects partly a slowdown in structural reforms at home and partly the challenges associated with a deterioration in the global environment. The concern has emerged that many countries in the region may be caught in the middle-income trap, a phase in development characterized by a recurring deceleration in growth and by per capita incomes that are systematically below the high-income threshold. To ensure that these countries overcome the obstacles to growth and achieve progress toward high-income status, policy makers need to make the transition from a strategy driven largely by investment to a strategy that is supported by the importation and diffusion of global capital, knowledge, and technology and then to a strategy that complements these with innovation. The report Greater Heights: Growing to High Income in Europe and Central Asia relies on the 3i strategy described in World Development Report 2024—investment, infusion, and innovation—to propose policy options to assist middle-income countries in Europe and Central Asia in the effort to reach high-income status. Drawing on comprehensive empirical analysis, the report offers actionable recommendations that will enable policy makers to advance stronger economic growth across the region. Such a transition will require continued and sustained foundational reform to maximize the drivers of economic growth while pivoting to new transformative reforms to promote the development of more complex economic structures and institutions. These involve the need to discipline incumbents, boost the role of the private sector, strengthen the competitive environment, and reward merit. The emphasis on a strategy driven by innovation is also critically important for those countries that have already attained high-income status.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16) World Bank
    Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.
  • Publication
    State of Social Protection Report 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-07) World Bank
    Social protection goes well beyond cash transfers; it includes policies and programs that bridge skill, financial, and information gaps, aiding people in securing better jobs. The three pillars of social protection—social assistance, social insurance, and labor market programs—support households and workers in handling crises, escaping poverty, facing transitions, and seizing employment opportunities. But despite a substantial expansion over the past decade, 2 billion people remain uncovered or inadequately covered across low- and middle-income countries. Drawing from administrative and household survey data from the World Bank’s Atlas of Social Protection Indicators of Resilience and Equity (ASPIRE), the "State of Social Protection Report 2025: The 2-Billion-Person Challenge" documents advances and challenges to strengthening social protection and labor systems across low- and middle-income countries, analyzing the evolution of expenditure, coverage, and adequacy of support. This report details four policy action areas governments can embrace to maximize the benefits of adequate social protection for all: extending social protection to those in need; strengthening the adequacy of social protection support; building shock-proof social protection systems; and optimizing social protection financing. The report discusses how the path of reforms will depend on country context, capacity, and fiscal space. The rising frequency of shocks and crises calls for major investments in the adaptability and preparedness of social protection and labor systems. Amid a world in transition, social protection is more important and necessary than ever.
  • Publication
    Making Refugee Self-Reliance Work: From Aid to Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-09) Hoogeveen, Johannes; Silva, Karishma; Hopper, Robert Benjamin
    "Making Refugee Self-Reliance Work: From Aid to Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa" advocates for the enhancement of refugee self-reliance as a strategic, humane, development approach to refugee assistance. Facilitating refugees’ capacity to support themselves through gainful work not only upholds their dignity and autonomy but also offers socioeconomic benefits to host communities by unlocking opportunities for shared investment and development. The report demonstrates how refugee self-reliance in Sub-Saharan Africa remains elusive and identifies various reasons why this is the case: encampment limits the scope for self-reliance; restrictions on refugees’ right to work hinder self-sufficiency; small allocations of infertile land make even subsistence farming impossible; aid delivery in specific areas contributes to settlement patterns in which skills and economic opportunities do not match; economic development in remote, resource-scarce regions is unsustainable; and dependence on aid shifts funding priorities from long-term development to unproductive care and maintenance models. To overcome these challenges, the report outlines five areas for policy action: 1. Ending restrictive encampment policies 2. Boosting refugees’ economic participation 3. Supporting host communities 4. Reshaping financing and investment models 5. Investing in preparedness. Success requires committed leadership from host governments, as well as coordinated engagement and sustained support from humanitarian organizations and development partners.