Publication:
Using Probabilistic Models to Appraise and Decide on Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorLey-Borrás, Roberto
dc.contributor.authorFox, Benjamin D.
dc.date.accessioned2015-07-20T16:30:51Z
dc.date.available2015-07-20T16:30:51Z
dc.date.issued2015-07
dc.description.abstractThis paper presents an overview of the structure of probabilistic catastrophe risk models, discusses their importance for appraising sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance instruments and strategy, and puts forward a model and a process for improving decision making on the linked disaster risk management strategy and sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance strategy. The paper discusses governments use of probabilistic catastrophe models to inform sovereign disaster risk financing decision making and describes the ex ante and ex post financing instruments available for responding to extreme natural events. It also discusses the challenge of appraising sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance instruments, including a review of the multiple dimensions of disaster risks and the value that probabilistic catastrophe risk models provide. The decision making framework for sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance put forward by the paper includes the use of a decision model (an influence diagram) as a rigorous representation of the relationships between the decisions, uncertain events, and consequences relevant to sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance decision making. The framework also includes a process for generating high-quality customized components for the decision model, and a tool for designing coherent sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance strategies. The paper ends with suggestions for improving catastrophe risk models to facilitate sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance decision making.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/07/24744805/using-probabilistic-models-appraise-decide-sovereign-disaster-risk-financing-insurance
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7358
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/22237
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7358
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectFINANCIAL RISK
dc.subjectCONTINGENT LIABILITIES
dc.subjectCATASTROPHIC EVENTS
dc.subjectRISKS
dc.subjectCAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subjectDISASTER RISK REDUCTION
dc.subjectPRODUCTION
dc.subjectRISK EXPOSURE
dc.subjectRISK REDUCTION
dc.subjectSNOW STORMS
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectDISASTER RISKS
dc.subjectSTORMS
dc.subjectCONTINGENT LIABILITY
dc.subjectINDUSTRY
dc.subjectSTRATEGIES
dc.subjectINFORMATION
dc.subjectPROGRAMS
dc.subjectNATURAL CATASTROPHES
dc.subjectBUILDING CODE
dc.subjectEFFECTS
dc.subjectPREVENTIVE ACTIONS
dc.subjectRISK AVERSION
dc.subjectDISASTER
dc.subjectCAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subjectSOCIAL BENEFITS
dc.subjectDISASTER PREVENTION
dc.subjectEARTHQUAKES
dc.subjectHURRICANES
dc.subjectNATURAL CATASTROPHES
dc.subjectCATASTROPHES
dc.subjectTSUNAMIS
dc.subjectNATURAL PHENOMENA
dc.subjectPUBLIC POLICY
dc.subjectRELIEF
dc.subjectTRAINING
dc.subjectNATURAL DISASTER
dc.subjectDISASTER RESPONSE
dc.subjectTRANSPORT
dc.subjectREDUCING POVERTY
dc.subjectFLOODS
dc.subjectOUTPUTS
dc.subjectNATURAL HAZARD
dc.subjectNATURAL DISASTERS
dc.subjectCRITERIA
dc.subjectDEBT
dc.subjectMARKETS
dc.subjectORGANIZATIONS
dc.subjectDISASTERS
dc.subjectDISASTER REDUCTION
dc.subjectLOANS
dc.subjectRESERVES
dc.subjectSOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectFINANCE
dc.subjectEFFICIENCY
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE
dc.subjectTAXES
dc.subjectCONTINGENT LIABILITY
dc.subjectCREDIT INSURANCE
dc.subjectDROUGHTS
dc.subjectEMERGENCY
dc.subjectEARTHQUAKE
dc.subjectRISK ASSESSMENT
dc.subjectREDUCING POVERTY
dc.subjectNATURAL HAZARDS
dc.subjectDISASTER REDUCTION
dc.subjectDISASTER RISK
dc.subjectPOLICIES
dc.subjectSOVEREIGN RISK
dc.subjectNATURAL HAZARD
dc.subjectVALUE
dc.subjectLOSSES
dc.subjectBANK
dc.subjectCREDIT
dc.subjectNEUTRALITY
dc.subjectRISK EXPOSURE
dc.subjectDAMAGE
dc.subjectPROPERTY
dc.subjectRELIEF OPERATIONS
dc.subjectINSURANCE INDUSTRY
dc.subjectNATURAL DISASTER
dc.subjectRELIEF OPERATIONS
dc.subjectDISASTER MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectRISK‐TRANSFER
dc.subjectFLOOD
dc.subjectRISK TRANSFER
dc.subjectMANAGEMENT
dc.subjectPREVENTIVE ACTIONS
dc.subjectINSURANCE
dc.subjectLOSS
dc.subjectRESPONSE TO DISASTER
dc.subjectRISK TRANSFER
dc.subjectDISASTER RESPONSE
dc.subjectRISK MITIGATION
dc.subjectCATASTROPHIC EVENTS
dc.subjectHURRICANE
dc.subjectINVESTMENT
dc.subjectRISK
dc.subjectPHYSICAL DAMAGE
dc.subjectINSURANCE COMPANIES
dc.subjectMITIGATION
dc.subjectDISASTER RISKS
dc.subjectDISASTER RISK REDUCTION
dc.subjectPHYSICAL DAMAGE
dc.subjectREVENUE
dc.subjectRISK MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectCONTINGENT LIABILITIES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL RISK
dc.subjectDISASTER RISK
dc.subjectINSURANCE COMPANIES
dc.subjectRISK MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectRISK AVERSION
dc.subjectGOVERNMENTS
dc.subjectLIABILITIES
dc.subjectOUTCOMES
dc.subjectCOVERAGE
dc.subjectSNOW STORMS
dc.subjectFINANCING SOURCES
dc.subjectNATURAL HAZARDS
dc.subjectNATURAL PHENOMENA
dc.subjectRISK ASSESSMENT
dc.subjectRECONSTRUCTION
dc.subjectCREDIT INSURANCE
dc.subjectRISK MITIGATION
dc.subjectNATURAL DISASTERS
dc.titleUsing Probabilistic Models to Appraise and Decide on Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing and Insuranceen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleUsing Probabilistic Models to Appraise and Decide on Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance
okr.date.disclosure2015-07-02
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T09:51:35.748052Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/07/24744805/using-probabilistic-models-appraise-decide-sovereign-disaster-risk-financing-insurance
okr.globalpracticeFinance and Markets
okr.guid742541467997636824
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7358
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b082fcbbf7_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum24744805
okr.identifier.reportWPS7358
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/07/02/090224b082fcbbf7/1_0/Rendered/PDF/Using0probabil0ancing0and0insurance.pdfen
okr.topicInsurance Risk Mitigation
okr.topicEnvironment::Natural Disasters
okr.topicUrban Development::Hazard Risk Management
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Insurance & Risk Mitigation
okr.unitFinance and Markets Global Practice Group; and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Using0probabil0ancing0and0insurance.pdf
Size:
841.16 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
Using0probabil0ancing0and0insurance.txt
Size:
76.6 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
Download
Collections
Policy Research Working Papers