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Long-Term Growth Prospects in Peru: Leveraging the Global Green Transition and the Reforms Needed to Become a High-Income Country

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dc.contributor.authorBarco, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorCeliku, Bledi
dc.contributor.authorChávez, Paulo
dc.contributor.authorMendes, Arthur
dc.contributor.authorPennings, Steven
dc.contributor.authorResk, Elena
dc.date.accessioned2024-09-09T20:43:16Z
dc.date.available2024-09-09T20:43:16Z
dc.date.issued2024-09-09
dc.description.abstractThis paper uses the World Bank Long-Term Growth Model and extensions to study Peru’s long-term growth prospects and its potential to attain high-income economy status. Under a business-as-usual baseline, Peru’s potential GDP growth declines slowly from 2.1 to 1.7 percent over the next two decades, due mostly to demographic factors. In this baseline, it takes more than half a century to reach high income status. To accelerate growth, the paper considers moderate and ambitious reform scenarios for the non-resource sector through faster total factor productivity (TFP) growth, human capital growth, and higher investment rates. The ambitious reform path accelerates growth to an average of 4.3 percent in the simulation period (2024–50), allowing Peru to reach high-income status by 2045. The paper also considers a Global Green Transition scenario, where Peru takes advantage of higher global demand for copper from clean technologies. In that scenario, higher copper prices, greater exploration, improved mining technology, and reinvested copper windfalls increase baseline growth to 3.1 percent by 2035. If Peru were able to harness the global green transition and implement ambitious reforms in the non-resource sector, growth could accelerate to an average of 5 percent, and the country could reach high-income status by 2042.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099323309062418738/IDU1c57a1dfb170c4140f51976c1cb38cb2c403d
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10900
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/42135
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper; 10900
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectINVESTMENT
dc.subjectTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectINNOVATION
dc.subjectEDUCATION
dc.subjectMARKET EFFICIENCY
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE
dc.subjectINSTITUTIONS
dc.subjectPERU
dc.subjectGREEN TRANSITION
dc.subjectDECENT WORK AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectSDG 8
dc.subjectINDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE
dc.subjectSDG 9
dc.subjectRESPONSIBLE CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION
dc.subjectSDG 12
dc.titleLong-Term Growth Prospects in Peruen
dc.title.subtitleLeveraging the Global Green Transition and the Reforms Needed to Become a High-Income Countryen
dc.typeWorking Paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleLong-Term Growth Prospects in Peru: Leveraging the Global Green Transition and the Reforms Needed to Become a High-Income Country
okr.date.disclosure2024-09-09
okr.date.lastmodified2024-09-06T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099323309062418738/IDU1c57a1dfb170c4140f51976c1cb38cb2c403d
okr.guid099323309062418738
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-c57a1dfb-70c4-40f5-976c-cb38cb2c403d
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10900
okr.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10900
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34387128
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34387128
okr.identifier.reportWPS10900
okr.import.id5238
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099323309062418738/pdf/IDU1c57a1dfb170c4140f51976c1cb38cb2c403d.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeLatin America & Caribbean
okr.region.countryPeru
okr.themeInclusive Growth,Mitigation,Job Creation,Gender,Human Development and Gender,Data Development and Capacity Building,Economic Policy,Green Growth,Economic Growth and Planning,Environment and Natural Resource Management,Private Sector Development,Public Sector Management,Climate change,Jobs,Adaptation,Data production, accessibility and use,Public Assets and Investment Management,Spatial Growth,Public Administration,Macroeconomic & Structural Policy Modelling,Structural Transformation and Economic Diversification
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topicEnvironment::Green Issues
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Labor Markets
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Investment and Investment Climate
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Markets and Market Access
okr.unitEFI-LCR-MTI-MacroFiscal (ELCMU)
okr.unitDECRG: Macroeconomics & Growth (DECMG)
relation.isAuthorOfPublication83daf4e9-5061-5f1f-b16b-68116394433c
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery83daf4e9-5061-5f1f-b16b-68116394433c
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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