Publication:
Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan's Transition

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dc.contributor.authorFloreani, Vincent A.
dc.contributor.authorLopez-Acevedo, Gladys
dc.contributor.authorRama, Martin
dc.date.accessioned2016-11-01T17:08:19Z
dc.date.available2016-11-01T17:08:19Z
dc.date.issued2016-10
dc.description.abstractDespite record economic growth for more than a decade, poverty has remained stubbornly high in Afghanistan, especially in the regions that suffered less from conflict. This paper aims to explain this paradox by combining a model of conflict intensity at the province level over period 2007-14 with a model of consumption at the household level in 2011. Provincial data show that higher levels of conflict were positively correlated with both a larger presence of troops (international and Afghan) and larger aid flows. Household data show that the negative impact of conflict on consumption was more than offset by the positive impact of aid and troops. According to the estimates, Afghan troops contributed more to poverty reduction than international troops, possibly because they spent more locally. The paper uses the estimated models to conduct an out-of-sample validation exercise, focusing on the transition initiated in 2014. The results should be interpreted with caution, as the quantitative models cannot account for strategic shifts in the insurgency and watershed political developments. But they suggest that the reduction in the number of international troops and declining foreign aid flows led to an increase in conflict intensity and a decline in consumption per capita, matching current trends.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/10/26868027/conflict-poverty-afghanistans-transition
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7864
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/25309
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7864
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectconflict
dc.subjectforeign aid
dc.subjectpoverty
dc.subjectliving standards
dc.subjectconflict intensity
dc.subjecthousehold consumption
dc.subjecttroop presence
dc.subjectpoverty reduction
dc.subjectsecurity
dc.titleConflict and Poverty in Afghanistan's Transitionen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleConflict and Poverty in Afghanistan's Transition
okr.date.disclosure2016-10-17
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/10/26868027/conflict-poverty-afghanistans-transition
okr.guid911411476716278238
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7864
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b084638674_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum26868027
okr.identifier.reportWPS7864
okr.importedtrue
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/911411476716278238/pdf/WPS7864.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeSouth Asia
okr.region.countryAfghanistan
okr.topicConflict and Development::Conflict and Fragile States
okr.topicConflict and Development::National Protection and Security
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Development Economics & Aid Effectiveness
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Living Standards
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Poverty Monitoring & Analysis
okr.unitOffice of the Chief Economist, South Asia Region; and the Office of the Chief Economist, International Finance Corporation
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