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Perceptions, Contagion, and Civil Unrest

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dc.contributor.authorAbi-Nassif, Christophe
dc.contributor.authorIslam, Asif Mohammed
dc.contributor.authorLederman, Daniel
dc.date.accessioned2020-10-01T17:31:28Z
dc.date.available2020-10-01T17:31:28Z
dc.date.issued2020-09
dc.description.abstractThis paper investigates the empirical relationship between citizens' perceptions of economic and political conditions and the incidence of nonviolent uprisings. Perceptions are measured by aggregating individual-level data from regional barometer surveys. The main results show that negative perceptions of political conditions -- proxied by the share of the population that is generally dissatisfied with the way democracy works -- have a significant positive effect on the number of protests and strikes. Negative perceptions of economic conditions do not seem to be significantly related to the latter. This generally holds across a large sample of countries and is particularly the case for Western and Central European countries as well as high-income countries. In developing economies, however, social protests appear to be driven by dissatisfaction with economic and political conditions. The heterogeneous effects of perceptions on uprisings across geography and income groups, however, are not robust and susceptible to changes in estimators and model specification. In particular, the international contagion of protests eliminates this international heterogeneity, implying that the incidence of uprisings in nearby countries tends to generate protests at home through its effect on perceptions related to political conditions in high-income countries. Overall, the effect of perceptions about political conditions, along with protest contagion, is robust to the inclusion of numerous control variables that capture actual economic conditions and the quality of governance across countries. The results are also robust to the use of seemingly valid instrumental variables, alternative count-data estimators, and sample composition.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/721471601383865869/Perceptions-Contagion-and-Civil-Unrest
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9416
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/34554
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 9416
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectCIVIL RESISTANCE
dc.subjectCITIZEN PERCEPTIONS
dc.subjectNONVIOLENT UPRISING
dc.subjectCONFLICT
dc.subjectDEMOCRACY
dc.subjectPROTEST CONTAGION
dc.subjectGOVERNANCE
dc.subjectPOLITICAL CONFLICT
dc.titlePerceptions, Contagion, and Civil Unresten
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titlePerceptions, Contagion, and Civil Unrest
okr.date.disclosure2020-09-29
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/721471601383865869/Perceptions-Contagion-and-Civil-Unrest
okr.guid721471601383865869
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9416
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b087e2f194_2_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum32444707
okr.identifier.reportWPS9416
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/721471601383865869/pdf/Perceptions-Contagion-and-Civil-Unrest.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.region.geographicalEurope
okr.statistics.combined1490
okr.statistics.dr721471601383865869
okr.statistics.drstats781
okr.topicConflict and Development::Conflict and Fragile States
okr.topicGovernance::Democratic Government
okr.topicGovernance::National Governance
okr.topicGovernance::Politics and Government
okr.topicSocial Development::Social Conflict and Violence
okr.unitOffice of the Chief Economist, Middle East and North Africa Region
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relation.isAuthorOfPublication2c812f70-403a-5905-88e4-bd90a5f31e96
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery2c812f70-403a-5905-88e4-bd90a5f31e96
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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