Publication:
Business Cycles Accounting for Paraguay

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dc.contributor.authorHnatkovska, Viktoria
dc.contributor.authorKoehler-Geib, Friederike
dc.date.accessioned2015-07-14T21:15:42Z
dc.date.available2015-07-14T21:15:42Z
dc.date.issued2015-06
dc.description.abstractThis study investigates the role of domestic and external shocks in business cycle fluctuations in Paraguay during 1991–2012. Time-series methods and a structural model-based approach are used to conduct an integrated analysis of business cycles. First, structural vector autoregression is used to assess the role played by external factors and domestic shocks in driving fluctuations in gross domestic product through impulse response functions and variance decompositions. The analysis finds that external shocks such as terms of trade, world interest rate and foreign demand account for over 50 percent of real gross domestic product fluctuations. Given Paraguay’s strong dependence on agriculture, an analysis is also done for the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors separately. The analysis finds that non-agricultural gross domestic product is to a large extent driven by external shocks, which account for over 50 percent of its volatility. In contrast, the volatility in agricultural gross domestic product is primarily due to shocks to domestic variables, mainly shocks to agricultural output. A further difference between the sectors is that shocks to government consumption are more important for agricultural gross domestic product, while shocks to the domestic real interest rate play a larger role in the volatility of non-agricultural gross domestic product. Second, the paper investigates the sources of business cycle fluctuations through the lens of a neoclassical growth model with an agricultural and non-agricultural sector. The analysis finds some signs of improvements, as labor market distortions have declined, firms’ access to credit improved, and agricultural efficiency rose over time. Nevertheless, challenges remain, as gaps in labor and capital returns between agriculture and non-agriculture remain large, efficiency in the non-agricultural sector shows no signs of improvement, and households’ access to finance has deteriorated.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24577785/business-cycles-accounting-paraguay
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7284
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/22157
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7284
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectCAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subjectPRODUCTION
dc.subjectMARKET DISTORTIONS
dc.subjectLAGS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL CAPITAL
dc.subjectFOREIGN INVESTORS
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINTEREST
dc.subjectEXPECTATIONS
dc.subjectASSET PRICES
dc.subjectINFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS
dc.subjectEMERGING ECONOMIES
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectEXCHANGE
dc.subjectDISCOUNT RATE
dc.subjectINSURER
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectMARGINAL PRODUCT
dc.subjectPOLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectDEVELOPING ECONOMIES
dc.subjectPORTFOLIO
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectWORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
dc.subjectWELFARE
dc.subjectWORLD MARKETS
dc.subjectVARIABLES
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRICE
dc.subjectFACTORS OF PRODUCTION
dc.subjectCAPITAL STOCK
dc.subjectPRICE
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectINPUTS
dc.subjectPAYMENTS
dc.subjectWEALTH
dc.subjectSAVING
dc.subjectPUBLIC REGISTRY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectTRENDS
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectCAPITAL ALLOCATION
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICIES
dc.subjectINFLUENCE
dc.subjectMARGINAL PRODUCTS
dc.subjectVOLATILE ECONOMIES
dc.subjectTRADE BALANCE
dc.subjectTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectPRODUCTION STRUCTURE
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectLOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectVOLATILITIES
dc.subjectLOW INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE SHOCK
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectINTEREST RATES
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE SHOCKS
dc.subjectMIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES
dc.subjectNATURAL DISASTERS
dc.subjectNET EXPORTS
dc.subjectDEBT
dc.subjectFINANCIAL FLOWS
dc.subjectOPEN ECONOMY
dc.subjectREAL INTEREST RATE
dc.subjectGLOBAL BUSINESS
dc.subjectCAPITAL STOCKS
dc.subjectINVENTORIES
dc.subjectUTILITY
dc.subjectAVERAGING
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICE
dc.subjectECONOMIC RESEARCH
dc.subjectTAXES
dc.subjectINVESTMENT DECISIONS
dc.subjectEQUITY
dc.subjectINFLATION EXPECTATIONS
dc.subjectINVESTORS
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectCAPITAL
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectVOLATILITY
dc.subjectMARKET CONDITIONS
dc.subjectFUTURE
dc.subjectVALUE
dc.subjectPRODUCTION FUNCTIONS
dc.subjectCREDIT
dc.subjectFORMAL ANALYSIS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMICS
dc.subjectDEMAND
dc.subjectOUTPUT GAP
dc.subjectUTILITY FUNCTION
dc.subjectWORKING CAPITAL
dc.subjectECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS
dc.subjectECONOMY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectCONSUMERS
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subjectPRICE FLUCTUATIONS
dc.subjectTAX RATES
dc.subjectSHARES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL INFLOWS
dc.subjectBENCHMARK
dc.subjectECONOMIC THEORY
dc.subjectPAYROLL TAXES
dc.subjectCREDIT BUREAU
dc.subjectPRODUCTION FUNCTION
dc.subjectECONOMICS
dc.subjectCAPITAL RETURNS
dc.subjectOUTPUT
dc.subjectPRICE MOVEMENTS
dc.subjectENFORCEMENT
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLES
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectTRADE
dc.subjectLOW-INCOME ECONOMIES
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGOODS
dc.subjectTHEORY
dc.subjectEMERGING ECONOMY
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectINVESTMENT
dc.subjectSHARE
dc.subjectDEVELOPING ECONOMY
dc.subjectAUTOREGRESSION
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectCAPITAL INFLOWS
dc.subjectGINI COEFFICIENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC TIME SERIES
dc.subjectNOMINAL INTEREST RATE
dc.subjectRAPID GROWTH
dc.subjectCOMMODITIES
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectAVERAGE PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectOPEN ECONOMIES
dc.subjectLIQUID ASSETS
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectSTICKY WAGES
dc.subjectPOSITIVE EFFECTS
dc.subjectMIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectSMALL ECONOMY
dc.subjectGLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
dc.subjectPRICES
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.titleBusiness Cycles Accounting for Paraguayen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleBusiness Cycles Accounting for Paraguay
okr.date.disclosure2015-06-02
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T10:07:25.790557Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24577785/business-cycles-accounting-paraguay
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.guid107391467999714574
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7284
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b082eeab76_2_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum24577785
okr.identifier.reportWPS7284
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/06/02/090224b082eeab76/2_0/Rendered/PDF/Business0cycles0accounting0for0Paraguay.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeLatin America & Caribbean
okr.region.countryParaguay
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Labor Policies
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Conditions and Volatility
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Modeling and Statistics
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Theory & Research
okr.unitMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management Global Practice Group
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relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery0fc843bd-9f7f-57ac-b8dc-280515f46cd5
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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