Guyana - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis

doi:10.1596/32559

Publication:
Guyana - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis

dc.contributor.author	World Bank
dc.contributor.author	International Monetary Fund
dc.date.accessioned	2019-10-17T18:00:55Z
dc.date.available	2019-10-17T18:00:55Z
dc.date.issued	2019-09
dc.description.abstract	The risk of external and overall debt distress for Guyana remains moderate, but debt dynamics will improve significantly with the start of oil production in 2020. All external debt indicators remain below the relevant indicative vulnerability thresholds under the baseline scenario, which incorporates the average long-term effects of oil on economic growth, fiscal balance, and current account position. The PV of external debt-to-GDP is projected to decline to 3 percent over the long-term as the need for external borrowing is offset by the accumulation of external assets. Stress tests indicate the susceptibility of Guyana’s external public debt in a very extreme shock which combines simultaneous shocks to real GDP growth, primary balance, exports, other flows (current transfers and FDI), and nominal exchange rate depreciation, as well as second order effects arising from interactions among these shocks. The combined effects of these shocks and their second order effects cause temporary but significant breaches in the external debt thresholds, prompting a moderate risk rating. Nonetheless, Guyana has substantial space to absorb these shocks, reflecting the current low level of external debt. Guyana’s medium- and long-term outlook is very favorable given the incoming oil production and revenues, which will eventually underpin fiscal surpluses and a reduction in external indebtedness. The authorities reiterated their commitment in preserving fiscal discipline.	en
dc.identifier	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/535231570770403609/Guyana-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis-September-2019
dc.identifier.doi	10.1596/32559
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10986/32559
dc.language	English
dc.publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rights	CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder	World Bank
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject	DEBT SERVICE BURDEN
dc.subject	PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT
dc.subject	CONTINGENT LIABILITY
dc.subject	EXTERNAL DEBT
dc.subject	SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS
dc.subject	RISK ASSESSMENT
dc.subject	DEBT DISTRESS
dc.subject	PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT
dc.subject	MACROECONOMIC PROJECTION
dc.title	Guyana - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis	en
dc.type	Report	en
dc.type	Rapport	fr
dc.type	Informe	es
dspace.entity.type	Publication
okr.crossref.title	Guyana - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis
okr.date.disclosure	2019-10-11
okr.doctype	Economic & Sector Work
okr.doctype	Economic & Sector Work::Debt and Creditworthiness Study
okr.docurl	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/535231570770403609/Guyana-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis-September-2019
okr.guid	535231570770403609
okr.identifier.doi	10.1596/32559
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum	090224b0871c9a9a_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum	31472077
okr.identifier.report	142537
okr.imported	true	en
okr.language.supported	en
okr.pdfurl	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/535231570770403609/pdf/Guyana-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis-September-2019.pdf	en
okr.region.administrative	Latin America and Caribbean
okr.region.country	Guyana
okr.topic	Public Sector Development::Public Sector Economics
okr.topic	Finance and Financial Sector Development::Debt Markets
okr.topic	Finance and Financial Sector Development::Strategic Debt Management
okr.topic	International Economics and Trade::External Debt
okr.unit	EFI-MTI-Global Macro and Debt (EMFMD)