Publication:
Fiscal Risks from Early Termination of Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructure

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dc.contributor.authorHerrera Dappe, Matias
dc.contributor.authorTurkgulu, Burak
dc.contributor.authorMelecky, Martin
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-17T17:56:06Z
dc.date.available2022-03-17T17:56:06Z
dc.date.issued2022-03-15
dc.description.abstractPublic-private partnerships (PPPs) in infrastructure provision have expanded around the world since the early 1990s. Well-structured PPPs can unleash efficiency gains, but PPPs create liabilities for governments, including contingent ones. This paper assesses the fiscal risks from contingent liabilities from early termination of PPPs in a sample of developing countries. It analyzes the drivers of early termination and identifies systematic contractual, institutional, and macroeconomic factors that can help predict the probability that a PPP project will be terminated early, using a flexible parametric hazard regression. Using the probability distributions from the regression analysis, it simulates scenarios of fiscal risks for governments from early termination of PPPs in the electricity and transport sectors, adopting a value-at-risk approach. The findings indicate that the rate of early terminations decreases with direct government support, greater constraints on executive power, and the award of the PPP by subnational governments; it increases with project size and macro-financial shocks. The simulations show that fiscal risks from infrastructure PPP portfolios are not negligible in some countries, reaching as high as 2.8 percent of GDP. A severe macro-financial shock substantially increases the estimates, with the value at risk the year after the shock 11–20 times larger.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/750981647367854667/Fiscal-Risks-from-Early-Termination-of-Public-Private-Partnerships-in-Infrastructure
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9972
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/37159
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectPRIVATE PARTICIPATION IN INFRASTRUCTURE
dc.subjectPER CAPITA GROWTH RATE
dc.subjectJAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY
dc.subjectORDINARY LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION
dc.subjectBASELINE HAZARD FUNCTION
dc.subjectECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION
dc.titleFiscal Risks from Early Termination of Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructureen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.date.disclosure2022-03-15
okr.date.lastmodified2022-03-15T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/750981647367854667/Fiscal-Risks-from-Early-Termination-of-Public-Private-Partnerships-in-Infrastructure
okr.guid750981647367854667
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9972
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b088d2cead_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum33759021
okr.identifier.reportWPS9972
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/750981647367854667/pdf/Fiscal-Risks-from-Early-Termination-of-Public-Private-Partnerships-in-Infrastructure.pdfen
okr.topicPrivate Sector Economics
okr.topicMacro-Fiscal Policy
okr.topicPublic Finance Decentralization and Poverty Reduction
okr.topicPublic Sector Economics
okr.topicEconomic Adjustment and Lending
okr.topicEnergy Policies and Economics
okr.topicFinancial Sector Policy
okr.topicInformation Technology
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development
okr.topicPublic Sector Development
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth
okr.topicEnergy
okr.topicInformation and Communication Technologies
okr.unitITRGK - Global Knowledge (ITRGK)
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relation.isAuthorOfPublicationc2369c70-649c-4c08-a1c8-b1dcb7d123de
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoverye263ad32-282e-5617-9d86-9c19af771906
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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